The Trans Tasman Pol Pod

So, one of the country's more bizarre elections has been held, and now we wait for an official result. There is still the possibility of some drama at the end of the month, but not much. Joining us again is Otago University Political analyst Dr Michael Swanson to talk about the election, and where to from here

Just days to go until the country decides whether the ruling coalition has done enough to be re-elected, or a change is needed. It appears to be the left's to lose, but it is also very tight, and efforts to game the rules of MMP have thrown a cloud over a rather lacklustre campaign, where the main parties have tried to be small targets. The small parties will decide who rules. Joining us to discuss the campaign and look at what the outcome might be this weekend is Otago University Political analyst Dr Michael Swanson.

The lifeless election campaign drags on, with neither main party able to land a killer blow and no major scandal erupting to destroy the hopes of one of the other. The Herald's Mood of the Boardroom survey is out – the corner office set doesn't rate Luxon at all, and is strongly in favour of Willis as finance minister despite her borrow and hope policies. The country's top CEOs don't like Hipkins either. The latest inflation numbers, which are stuck at a high level, suggest another OCR rise onn October 28, just before the election, with economists forecasting 4.7% inflation for Q4. Another OCR rise and consequent lift in mortgage rates rates could be political poison for the Government. The political parties are fighting their battles more than ever on social media. A Victoria University study suggests National is outpacing of the other parties for sheer numbers of Facebook posts, but it also says they're relentlessly negative and repetitive, and joining us  to talk about her impressions of the Social Media campaign so far is Auckland University public policy lecturer Dr Sarah Bickerman:

We're halfway through what is a very flat election campaign so far with the country set to vote on November the 7th for either a Government which hasn't done much to justify re-election or an opposition which is still dealing with the hangover from its last time in office. The two major party leaders are doing their best to be small targets and their policy offerings reflect this, with no real vote grabbers on offer yet. We're joined by Otago University Political analyst Dr Michael Swanson to talk about how the campaign is going:

With the election just under 4 weeks away, the leaders of the main parties took centre stage this week for the first televised leader's debate – as usual there was nothing to really take away – Chris Hipkins was declared the winner, but neither leader landed a telling blow. Labour released its long awaited fiscal plan - basically National lite, with 2026 Budget numbers locked in. A series of new polls show National and the coalition's road back to power is getting harder and harder, with Opportunity almost certyainly set to hold the balance of power, which makes Chris Luxon's steadfast refusal to work wi the fledgling party hard to understand. And the latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showed a continued recovery in business confidence in the September quarter. A net 40% of firms expect a better general economic outlook over the coming months on a seasonally adjusted basis, a significant increase from the net 14% feeling positive in the previous quarter. We're joined by, NZIER deputy CEO Christina Leung to look at the survey's findings.

Supermarkets are becoming a major campaign issue as the parties get into the business of attempting to be elected in November. After years of campaigning against National and its rich landlord mates, Labour now has the same mates, after Chris Hipkins announced it would be keeping the tax break for landlords it has so roundly lambasted the Government for delivering. Despite all the talk from economists, who’ve been saying the same thing for 3 years – the recovery is underway – it clearly is not. Finance Minister Nicola Willis lauded the pathetic 0.2% 2nd quarter GDP figure. She admitted however the first half of the year has been tough, with the Middle East crisis not helping. She tut tutted at economists who had forecast flat Q2 growth, but 0.2% is hardly a triumph. A new report calls for reform of what it calls the country’s non existent regulations for lobbyists after what it describes as a “tsunami” of vested-interest lobbying facing decision-makers. And we're joined by Auckland University Commercial Law Professor Gehan Gunasekara who has written an op ed piece in Newsroom suggesting the Regulatory Standards Act is failing to deliver on its promise of better-quality legislation. He says the Act would likely not have prevented either problems with the fast-track planning laws or the winter energy payment fiasco, and safeguards meant to curb poor lawmaking are proving to be “mere ideological virtue-signalling.”

It’s clear voters don’t believe either Labour or National can provide the solutions the country needs, and their support for them is ebbing away. For a second poll in a row they’re both under 30%. Immigration policy is becoming a key issue for November as New Zealand First continues to push its nationalist agenda, and Labour tries not to be outdone by the parties of the right on an issue which in reality has been manufactured by the populist Winston Peters. He’s announced NZ First’s immigration policy and is looking for sweeping changes to the rules. The Greens were laughed at as “communists” for their KiwiMart policy, in which parts of the major supermarket chains would be nationalised, and Labour has come up with a plan to outlaw price gouging for groceries. Now National has stepped into the fray with a policy to split Foodstuffs, forcing it to separate its New World and Pak’n’Save franchises. Not content with repealing Fair Pay Agreements, restoring 90-day trials, reforming employment law, replacing the Holidays Act, and cutting health and safety red tape, ACT is targeting workers with another round of policy promises which look to cut actual wages for thousands. It seems amazing, but Labour is pulling back from its decades long commitment to have agricultural emissions included in the ETS. And we're joined by Labour's immigration spokesman Phil Twyford to look at this increasingly contentious policy area.

Tax is shaping as the big issue for the election, with National and Labour both on the attack over their various policies, and allegations of lying being thrown about. The Pacific Islands Forum has been beset by its usual controversies, with some leaders not appearing, China cast in the role of bogeyman once again, Taiwan in the mix and New Zealand throwing money at a new port at a former military base at Penrhyn on the Cook Islands. There was some good and bad pre-election news for Nicola Willis. On the plus side, ratings agency Standard & Poors has given her something to cheer about, re-affirming the country’s AA+ credit rating with a stable outlook. But the OCR went up, and is expected to do so again before the election. The Green Party says the announcement Methanex is closing removes any arguable reason for the Government to build an LNG import terminal, and is calling on the Government to cancel its plans. As 10,000 public servants, including workers from MBIE, MSD and DIA, prepare to strike next week in support of better wages, the PSA is calling for a mandatory public good test before Government agencies and other publicly funded employers can embark on major restructures and cut jobs. And our guest this time is Associate Professor Gordon Nanau from the Pacific Studies Department at Auckland University who talks about the Pacific Islands Forum and the geopolitical power struggle playing out in the region:

The latest poll out, RNZ’s Reid Research sample, shows National’s leadership coup attempt has not been as damaging to the party as might have been expected. In fact, National’s core support has remained solid. Chris Hipkins has finally delivered some more Labour economic policy, promising the party’s fiscal strategy will grow the economy, get the books back into surplus and make sure hard-working people can get ahead. It sounds very much like National did when it campaigned 3 years ago, and then failed to deliver. Fresh PSA analysis of Treasury’s modelling shows the Government’s ACT driven decision to cancel pay equity claims under urgency in May 2025 has cost the country billions in lost growth, lost jobs and lost tax revenue. Despite clear evidence it has been a failed policy in many overseas jurisdictions, the Government is introducing a Bill to cap rates increases at 4%. Joining us this week is honorary Associate Professor of economics at Auckland University Susan St John. She's not entirely convinced by the Fiscal strategy Labour launched this week:

It's been an extraordinary week in politics, with Chris Luxon once again having to face down his detractors in caucus, and once again winning a confidence vote. Amazingly, in a week in which his MPs tried to depose him as leader, Luxon is ahead of Labour leader Chris Hipkins as preferred Prime Minister in the most recent polls, and the National Party is holding its own. The big mover this week is Opportunity, which both latest polls suggest will be in Parliament after November 7. The question is whether Luxon will rue announcing he won't work with the fledgling party. And joining us to unpack the dramatic events of the week, is political columnist Janet Wilson.