Welcome to this new series from The Tsunami is Coming: What Keeps You Up at Night?

This is a set of conversations in which experts and thought leaders name the shifts they see coming and the fractures in the status quo that haven’t yet made headlines.

Here’s the very first edition!

Leslie Palti-Guzman is a leading expert on global gas markets and energy geopolitics. She’s the founder of the advisory firm Energy Vista and host of the Energy Vista podcast.

In this conversation, she tells us why the U.S. may be squandering its greatest strategic advantage: America's energy leverage, built on the shale revolution, may be at risk.

The tech wobbles a bit at the start, but the conversation picks up quickly. Consider it the charm of a debut…

Leslie’s Substack:

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What the new U.S. National Security Strategy quietly signals

The 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy contains one line that should make every European policymaker pause:

Washington now wants to “cultivate resistance” inside allied democracies.

This isn’t military intervention. It’s something quieter:a willingness to back alternative political forces in Europe to “correct” its trajectory.

Key points from the document:

* Europe is described as facing “civilizational erasure” and becoming “unrecognizable in 20 years.”

* Current European leaders are labeled “unstable” and accused of “trampling democratic principles.”

* The U.S. pledges to support “patriotic European parties” and “political allies in Europe.”

* It questions whether future European societies will remain “reliable allies.”

* It suggests Europe needs to be pushed toward a quicker settlement in Ukraine.

Why this matters

This is a cold reminder that geopolitical risk today isn’t just about borders, armies, or treaties. It’s also about political interference between allies, demographic anxieties, and competing visions of what the West should be.

If we keep measuring risk the old way, we will miss what’s unfolding right in front of us.

You can read the full document here.

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It’s way too early to determine the long-term effects of the US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities yesterday. Here are a few brief thoughts to get this conversation going. Long story short? Now may be a good time to start doubting if you never had any doubts about the regions future.

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Musk blasted Trump’s signature bill as “disgusting abomination.” He added, moments ago, that Trump would have never been elected without his help. Trump said he found this all very disappointing. High level drama?

Yes. And a warning about the new rules of influence.

We’re moving from a predictable, institution-based system where companies could rely on established processes and regulatory frameworks, to one where political relationships increasingly determine business outcomes. This creates both unprecedented opportunities for those who can successfully navigate Trump’s transactional approach, and significant risks for those who can’t or won’t engage.

In this new world, managing risk means managing relationships — not just regulations. The hard part is less strategy—and more politics.

See you tomorrow for the regular installment.

And always feel free to hit “reply”.

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Recent concerns about Joe Biden's health and the broader challenges facing the Democratic Party shouldn’t feel normal — and here’s why:

* They highlight growing questions about transparency and leadership within a party that seems increasingly out of touch with the U.S. electorate.

* These U.S. developments reflect a global pattern: as the world grapples with rapid, disorienting change, the supply of new political ideas is dwindling — just when they’re most urgently needed.

Share your thoughts. The road ahead promises to be as painful as it is prolonged…

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One photo, two leaders, and a thousand headlines. In three minutes I break down why Trump’s Vatican kneel-down with Zelensky looks anything but accidental.

Love him or hate him, you must remember something about Trump’s talent: as the former owner of the beauty pageant Miss America, and the former host and producer of The Apprentice, the President of the United States knows what makes a picture appealing and a story good.

Long story short: there’s a lot more hesitation in Trump’s mind than what headlines suggest. So, as always, remain open-minded about your future outlook: there are a lot more possible paths for this administration to take than what conventional wisdom suggests.

Here’s the thing: the question isn’t whether this was calculated or not—it was. The real question is why? Long story short: there’s a lot more hesitation in Trump’s mind than what headlines suggest. So, as always, remain open-minded about your future outlook: there are a lot more possible paths for this administration to take than what conventional wisdom suggests.

The picture

Two noteworthy comments

Chris Ardane writes on something previously known as Twitter:

I’m a photographer and understand (I think) Trumps popularity, but I’ve got no answer to how the dude has a knack for producing iconic photos almost weekly. He’s a meme machine.

Historian Simon Sebag Montefiore comments (on the same social media):

The Grand Prince of Kiev is received by the Holy Emperor of the Romans at the funeral of the Bishop of Rome….

Did I miss anything? Do you agree? Just hit reply and let me know.

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Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni is in Italy to meet with President Donald Trump amid heightened tensions between the United States and the European Union over trade tariffs and broader transatlantic tensions.

The official joint statement from the White House emphasized the commitment of both countries to deepen cooperation on security, defense, and technology, as well as to address issues such as illegal immigration and organized crime. The leaders also reiterated their support for ending the war in Ukraine and strengthening NATO.

In addition, the trip was conducted with significant consultation with EU partners, and she has publicly committed to representing European interests. Nonetheless, skepticism remains within the EU about whether this approach can truly serve the collective European good, or if it risks fragmenting the EU’s position in critical negotiations with the US.

I wrote about Italy’s temptation to engage alone with the US a little while back, and I stand by it:

There is a real risk for European countries engaging on bilateral terms with the Trump administration to be completely steamrolled by the US. This is a hallmark of a transactional globalization.

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The French courts just delivered a verdict that changes everything. Marine Le Pen found guilty and banned from running in 2027—this is justice being served rather than democracy being subverted. I explain why and break down what this political earthquake means for France, Europe, and the future of populist movements.

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When a top U.S. official accidentally added a journalist to a group chat about Yemen war plans, it revealed more than just operational details. This isn't merely about incompetence—it exposes the fundamental tension between Trump's "common sense" governance and the complex realities of national security. More critically, the dismissive language about European allies ("parasites") signals a definitive break in transatlantic relations. Europeans must move beyond shock and recognize this new reality. The West as we knew it no longer exists—this is Europe's moment to create a viable alternative path forward while the world watches.

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Some brief thoughts about the Putin-Trump call yesterday.

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