This weekend’s carefully calibrated Israeli retaliatory strikes at Iranian military targets could lower the risk of an all-out Middle East war, particularly if Iran decides not to respond.

The Iranian military said as much by suggesting in a statement that Iran reserved the right to defend itself but may not respond to the attack if Israel agreed to ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to back the military by declaring the armed forces would decide how the Islamic Republic should respond.

By avoiding escalatory tit-for-tat attacks, Iran would ensure that the international community remains focused on the wars in Gaza and Lebanon at a time when Israel’s support network is fracturing.

With Israeli-Iranian tensions constrained, the fractures in Israel’s US and European diplomatic and military defence shield and the Jewish state’s existing and potential regional partnerships would likely return to the forefront, potentially with a vengeance.

The United States has called on Iran to refrain from escalating the situation, reminding them of the dangers of the cycle of retaliation. This came after Israel launched airstrikes against Iran targeting several sites across the country. James M. Dorsey talks to TRT World.

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James M. Dorsey and Tahei Institute Senior Fellow Einar Tangin discuss on CGTN Israel's retaliatory strikes against Iran.

James M. Dorsey, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, tells CNA why he believes the Middle East conflict won’t escalate into a regional war and why Iran doesn’t want an all-out war with Israel.

James talks to CGTN as Israel strikes Iran

In his weekly radio show, Middle East Report, on Radio Islam International James M. Dorsey discusses US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's tour of the region, prospects for Israeli resettlement of Gaza, and planned joint Saudi-Iranian naval exercises.

US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken is jumping through hoops on his 11th Middle East tour in the past year.

As he attempts to revive the stalled Gaza ceasefire talks and secure agreement on post-war arrangements in the Strip, Mr. Blinken is discovering that Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may not be the only party pooper.

So is Mahmoud Abbas, the internationally recognised, West Bank-based Palestinian president.

Mr. Blinken is touting a United Arab Emirates proposal for the administration of Gaza once a ceasefire has been achieved. The proposal was crafted with input from Israel but not the Palestinians.

That’s where the rub starts.

In some respects, Israel and Iran have traded places when it comes to Lebanon.

Iran sees a ceasefire as a way to shield Hezbollah, the Shiite Muslim militia, against US and Israeli efforts to degrade the group not only militarily but also politically and secure continued Iranian support for the militia.

That is what Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu believes he can prevent by continuing to wage war.

Speaking to Los Angeles Jews for Peace, James M. Dorsey discusses Israel’s Gaza and Lebanon wars, the risk of an all-out Israeli-Iranian war, the drivers of Israeli militarism, and the role of the United States.

More important than shining a light on apparent Israeli dis-and misinformation, the impact of the contrast in images of assassinated Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar suggests that Israel’s management of its information war is backfiring, much like its targeted assassinations that have failed to spark the collapse of groups like Hamas or Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite militia.