The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey

James discusses on Radio Islam challenges facing the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani defence pact, the prospects for success of diplomatic efforts to bring Iran and the United States back to the negotiating table, and the chances of success of US President Donald’s campaign to economically strangle Iran.

Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels loomed large when Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan earlier this month inked a mutual defence pact that defines an armed attack on one as an attack on all.

The rebels still loom large as Saudi Arabia and the Houthis inch closer to a revival of the Yemen war, but they are not the only ones potentially populating the pact’s threat matrix.

So are mounting tensions between Turkey and Israel, Israel’s aggressive regional posture, rivalry with an informal United Arab Emirates and Israel-led bloc that supports opposite sides in Somalia and Sudan, the reemergence of pirates off the coast of Somalia, and the implications of possible expansion of the pact to include, among others, Syria, Egypt, Bangladesh, and states in the Horn of Africa.

Whether and how the pact, dubbed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, addresses these issues will serve as litmus tests and define the pact’s significance and regional positioning.

Scott Bessent’s attempt to ringfence Iran financially and economically will test the United States’ ability to impose its will and Iran’s capability to puncture the Treasury Secretary’s proposed iron wall.

Mr. Bessent’s effort will also test the Trump administration’s belief that economic pressure and hardship will spark a popular revolt in Iran that would topple the Iranian regime.

With almost five decades of expanding sanctions on Iran that have failed to force Iran to submit to American demands, Mr. Bessent is focusing this time on Iran’s trading partners in a bid to cut off Iranian escape routes and circumvention.

It’s early days, and the jury is still out, but initial indications suggest that Mr. Bessent’s campaign of “economic asphyxiation” may produce mixed results, at best.

As the United States seeks to strangulate Iran economically, the question is whether the policy, with the US naval blockade of Iranian ports at its core, is pushing the Islamic Republic toward collapse or hardening its resolve. I suggest that Trump’s economic strangulation policy and calls for regime change may close the door on diplomacy. If anything, the president’s maximalist approach and rhetoric play into Iran's survival narrative and undermine Iranian proponents of a negotiated end to the war, while strengthening the country’s hardliners. Finally, I look at whether sanctions targeting the Islamic Republic’s political, military, and economic elite may prove more effective than the United States’ sweeping economic blockade that penalises ordinary Iranians the most.

As the United States seeks to strangulate Iran economically, the question is whether the policy, with the US naval blockade of Iranian ports at its core, is pushing the Islamic Republic toward collapse or hardening its resolve. I suggest that Trump’s economic strangulation policy and calls for regime change may close the door on diplomacy. If anything, the president’s maximalist approach and rhetoric play into Iran's survival narrative and undermine Iranian proponents of a negotiated end to the war, while strengthening the country’s hardliners. Finally, I look at whether sanctions targeting the Islamic Republic’s political, military, and economic elite may prove more effective than the United States’ sweeping economic blockade that penalises ordinary Iranians the most.

A look at why the United States and Iran may be on the brink of renewed military conflict. I unpack Donald Trump's stepped-up pressure campaign and the limits of his sanctions-based leverage, Trump’s rejection of a fleeting opportunity to negotiate, and why pressure to capitulate hardens Iran rather than bends it. From there I get into why Iran may increasingly see escalation as its least bad option, and the reasons the UAE could again become a primary regional target.

James discusses with CNA 938 host Daniel Martin US President Donald Trump’s’s plan to make the Strait of Hormuz a US territory, the president’s downgrading of annual military exercises with South Korea, and the Ukraine war in a three-segment interview.

A new tri-lateral defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan is reshaping the security map of the Gulf and beyond. In this episode, I unpack why Riyadh is reframing regional security in competition with the United Arab Emirates and Israel, what the pact signals for Iran and the wider bloc politics of the Middle East, and how the ongoing Iran war has turned into a test of endurance. I also assess how far Turkey and Pakistan are actually willing to go — and where each is likely to tread cautiously despite the pact's expanded scope.

Syria’s former President Bashar al-Assad and his brother, Maher al-Assad have been sentenced to death in absentia by a Damascus court for war crimes and crimes against humanity, while their cousin Atef Najib faced trial and sentencing in person. BFM 89.9 speaks with Dr. James M. Dorsey, adjunct senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, on the political significance of the verdict and whether it represents meaningful justice for Syria.

James joins Richard Hext, chairman of the Hong Kong Shipowners Association, on HKTU’s Backchat to discuss what next for the embattled Strait of Hormuz and global shipping.