What do Democrats think about foreign policy and national security? The recent democratic debate was stunningly superficial on foreign policy, yet the most revealing to date. It covered Iran, defense spending, troops in the Middle East, trade deals, North Korea, and China (sort of). Van offers his take, where there's daylight between candidate, and what's wrong going forward.

New York Times Weighs the Winners and Losers in the Debate: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/01/15/opinion/democratic-debate-who-won.html

Does 'bothsidesism' threaten democracy?  Gary Kasparov thinks so and so does Van.  Fareed Zakaria and the Washington establishment disagree about China.  Van thinks they're both wrong.  Dan Drezner throws shade at the incoherence of US foreign policy.  Taiwan's democracy under pressure.  And what North Korea's Christmas gift silence really tells us.  Also this episode: Advice for young writers.  

Dan Drezner's tweet: https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1210748831731572739

Gary Kasparov's tweet: https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1210280850094526464

Vipin Narang's tweet: https://mobile.twitter.com/NarangVipin/status/1209861487251951617

Fareed Zakaria's Foreign Affairs piece: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2019-12-06/new-china-scare

Why did the Trump administration just assassinate an Iranian senior military leader?  What will it lead to?  Lots of questions about deterrence stupidity and diversionary foreign policy in this quick Raw Uncut episode.

In this special New Year's episode with the BBC Dad, Dr. Robert Kelly, we get his predictions about a range of foreign policy issues for 2020:

--Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test?

--Will Kim Jong Un meet with Trump again?

--Will Trump leave office before the end of the year?

--Will there be any wars anywhere?

--Will the US withdraw any troops from South Korea?

Is Buttigieg a foreign policy hawk?  Is international relations really just about Russian foreign policy?   Van points out the obvious--Tulsi Gabbard is not a Democrat, and not progressive.  Why America sucks up to India (hint: it’s all about China), and why it shouldn’t.  The Pod implores Bernie Sanders to weigh in on the Transformers v. Usual Suspects debate that Matt Duss started.  And finally, is ‘Chained Globalisation’ here to stay, and what can we do about it? 

Predictions:

• Will Ankara (Turkey) follow up on their threat to shut down the U.S controlled Incirik AFB before the end of 2019? | No
• Will Congress pass any resolutions addressing the New START treaty (which expires in 2021) before February 2020? | No
• Will the U.S resume peace talks with the Taliban before the end of 2019? | No

Links:

• Benjamin R. Young on North Korea and Time - https://www.nknews.org/2019/12/the-need-for-speed-time-as-a-political-tool-in-north-korea/
• Daniel Larison on Pete Buttigieg’s Foreign Policy - https://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/buttigiegs-increasingly-hawkish-foreign-policy/
• Jason Kander on Tulsi Gabbard - https://twitter.com/JasonKander/status/1207487212234969088
• Tom Nichols on Gabbard - https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1207476464356143104
• Tim Draper on India and Religious Freedom - https://twitter.com/TimDraper/status/1207674025616519173
• Paul Poast on Russia and Foreign Affairs - https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1204745930144174080
• Journal of Global Security Studies special issue on American Bias -https://academic.oup.com/jogss/article-abstract/4/3/299/5521930
• Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman on Chained Globalisation - https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2019-12-10/chained-globalization

National security Republicans' "theory of security" might just kill us all in the name of deterrence.  House Democrats pass a defense budget that George W. Bush would be proud of.  China is decoupling from the US whether we like it or not.  Arms control is unravelling because the Trump administration is all neocons, ethno-nationalists, and multi-millionaires.  Also this episode: What the heck do foreign policy advisers do on presidential campaigns?  

World Politics Review Newsletter: https://about.worldpoliticsreview.com/undiplomatic/ 

Prediction Market:

• Will the U.S place meaningful sanctions on Turkey in response to their purchasing of Russian arms before the end of 2019? | No. 
• Following the Russian-Ukraine peace deal, will Russia withdraw active duty troops before the end of 2019? | Not a peace deal - it’s a ceasefire. No. 
• Will North Korea test an ICBM before the end of 2019? | No 

Notes and Sources:

• Ross Douthat on Republican foreign policy credibility: https://twitter.com/DouthatNYT/status/1201574412018950147
• Ankit Panda on international institutional revisionism: https://mobile.twitter.com/nktpnd/status/1204986200228089856
• Shadi Hamid on meritocracy and McKinsey: https://twitter.com/shadihamid/status/1203416084189196288
• Goose Lee on the Hong Kong protests and sex: https://twitter.com/Lee_Cobaj/status/1202209651665723396?fbclid=IwAR128MOLpR3C-YSKmnmN6Wn1Mwp_MqPwtL7grJwArCP68I_O0kn4-UWpVA4
• Jeffrey Lewis on nuclear weapons treaty: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/inside-the-new-global-arms-race-washington-us-russia-china-nuclear-weapons-cyberwarfare

What would a Mayor Bloomberg foreign policy look like (some concerning clues in his past)?  The wisdom of French realpolitik.  Why Trump will sell out Taiwan but the rest of Washington should keep the faith.  Why neoliberalism is the new neoconservatism.  Why Iran policy reveals Trump to be a neocon minus the love of democracy bit.  And why Van Jackson backs a no-first use nuclear policy.  Also this episode: Van reveals the presidential campaign he's been volunteering for as a foreign policy adviser.  

Notes and Sources:

• Mehdi Hasan on Michael Bloomberg: https://theintercept.com/2019/11/25/michael-bloombergs-right-wing-views-on-foreign-policy-make-him-a-perfect-candidate-for-the-republican-nomination/
• Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump: https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/1202008446083698689
• Ilan Goldenberg on the JCPOA: https://mobile.twitter.com/ilangoldenberg/status/1202343502501339136
• Gérard Araud on realpolitik: https://twitter.com/GerardAraud/status/1201071186626502656
• Matt Duss on neoliberalism:  https://twitter.com/mattduss/status/1201179005912854530

Nukes, missiles, and being oblivious to risk. The Indo-Pacific strategy is freaking some people out. Allies worry that the US doesn't know what it's doing in Asia, and a nuclear Japan and South Korea may just be a matter of time.  Trump doesn't care about Hong Kong.  Also this episode, why it sucks to have a liberal foreign policy in the Second Nuclear Age. When New Zealand will start developing nukes. And why post-INF missiles are the Christmas present no ally wants. In Ask Me Anything: Why Van Jackson is a good example of how not to build a career in foreign policy.

Stay Off Twitter:

David Frum on honorable resignations - https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1199528319483596800

Brett McGurk on the Trump/Erdogan bromance - https://twitter.com/brett_mcgurk/status/1199041509317701632

Mike Mazarr on the INF Treaty and missiles in Kansas - https://twitter.com/MMazarr/status/1197011144759595008

Vipin Narang on a new nuclear age - https://twitter.com/NarangVipin/status/1197924400428810241

Armchair Analysis:

Mira Rapp-Hooper on decoupling and the new nuclear age - https://warontherocks.com/2019/11/decoupling-is-back-in-asia-a-1960s-playbook-wont-solve-these-problems-2/

This special episode was recorded live from Seoul, South Korea in late November.  Dr. Van Jackson gave a talk at the East Asia Foundation in partnership with the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament.  Have a listen to learn the unintended dangers of pursuing North Korean denuclearization, and why a credible arms control process is the only way to stabilize Korea.

Center for a New American Security Report: https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/risk-realism

Who supports military bases in South Korea? Surprising majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. Also this episode, why some neoliberals are hostile to democracy. Why sphere-of-influence diplomacy is gross and destabilizing. Why the left needs to do better on Hong Kong. The State Department’s clash-of-civilizations problem. What North Korea means by its end-of-year deadline. Coercion with Chinese characteristics. And mental health in national security.

Van’s Predictions: 

1)   Will Bolivia’s interim president (Jeanine Añez Chavez) remain in power until elections can be held in 90 days? | Yes 

2)   Will Erdogan fully implement the anti-aircraft system they purchased from Russia (in violation of NATO regulations) by the end of 2020? | Yes

3)   Will China/Hong Kong police acknowledge deaths at the hands of police before the end of 2019? | No 

4)   Will Presidents Putin and Zelensky meet before the end of 2019? | No           

Notes and Sources:

·      Karl Friedhoff on JCS: https://twitter.com/KarlFriedhoff/status/1194303256949927937

·      Jonathan Allen on impeachment talking points: https://twitter.com/jonallendc/status/1194706489438621697

·      Kyle Bass on American silence on Hong Kong: https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1194590176078704640

·      Van Jackson on progressives and Asia policy: https://thediplomat.com/2019/10/how-american-progressives-think-about-asian-security/

·      Quinn Slobodian on economic freedom and democracy: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/11/democracy-defenders-economic-freedom-neoliberalism

Van’s Recommended IR Reads (Part I):

-       James Mann – ‘Rise of the Vulcans’ 

-       James Mann – ‘About Face’ 

-       Fred Kaplan – ‘The Wizards of Armageddon’ 

-       Sagan & Waltz – ‘The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate’ 

-       Yuen Khong – ‘Analogies at War’ 

-       Paul MacDonald – ‘Networks of Domination’ 

-       John Ikenberry – ‘Liberal Leviathan’ 

Music: "Van is Meta" by Tre' Hester