Nigeria’s inflation rate fell to 24.48% in January 2025 from 34.8% in December after the government updated how it measures inflation, reducing the impact of food prices in the calculation and adjusting the weights for housing and transport. How will this new inflation calculation affect the cost of living?

Lawmakers moved four tax bills forward despite disagreements. The general VAT rate will rise to 15% by 2030, but some essential goods will be tax-free.  How will the VAT increase impact businesses and consumers?  

Sudan’s minister thanked Russia for blocking a UN intervention. Fighting continues, with over 28,000 deaths and millions displaced. The army rejected a ceasefire and accused the EU of helping its rivals. Famine is worsening in Darfur. What can be done to help people affected by the war? 

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Valentine’s Day has become a major spending event in the country, with gifts, dining, and entertainment driving consumer activity. Traditional gifts remain popular, but experiential gifts are also in demand. How did businesses that adapt to evolving preferences position to benefit from this growing market?

President Bola Tinubu has requested the National Assembly to increase the 2025 budget by ₦4.5 trillion, raising it from ₦49.7 trillion to ₦54.2 trillion. Will this budget increase effectively address the nation’s pressing issues, or will it lead to further fiscal strain?

President John Mahama has instructed Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson to address a $156 million health sector funding shortfall caused by the suspension of USAID assistance. The funding gap threatens critical health services such as maternal health, HIV/AIDS, and family planning in Ghana’s northern regions. Can Ghana find sustainable solutions to bridge this funding gap, or will vulnerable populations bear the brunt of the shortfall?

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Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have officially left ECOWAS on January 29, 2025. However, ECOWAS will maintain diplomatic ties, recognise their passports, and allow trade under existing agreements while keeping communication channels open. How might this exit affect regional stability and cooperation in West Africa?  
 
Nigeria’s oil regulator will deny export permits to producers who don’t meet local supply quotas, including Dangote Refinery. Dangote has also reduced petrol prices from ₦950 to ₦890 per litre due to favourable global energy conditions, which is expected to lower the cost of goods and services. Will this petrol price reduction significantly impact Nigeria’s economy in the long run?  
  
Shell reported an oil spill in Ogale, near Port Harcourt, due to an overflow during operations. The spill has been contained, and an investigation will determine its cause and impact.  What steps can be taken to prevent future oil spills in the Niger Delta?

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Boko Haram killed at least 20 fishermen in Borno State, and ISWAP fighters attacked a Nigerian military base in Malam-Fatori, killing 20 soldiers. The militants surprised the troops with gun trucks and gunfire, burning buildings and forcing people to flee. How can Nigeria better protect its people and military from these insurgent attacks?

Rwandan-backed M23 rebels entered Goma, the DRC's largest city, causing confusion over who controls the area. The Congo River Alliance claimed full control, while the Congolese army said it held 80% of the city. UN peacekeepers were caught in the crossfire. In Kinshasa, protests erupted against international inaction, targeting various embassies. And on Thursday morning, Rwanda's president got into a tit-for-tat with South Africa's president on the issue. Are we seeing another African World War erupt in the DRC? What steps should the international community take to resolve the escalating violence in eastern Congo?

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Nigeria's BVN enrollments reached 64.83 million by January 2025, and the CBN introduced new platforms and accounts to simplify fund transfers and investments for Nigerians abroad. How will these initiatives improve financial inclusion for Nigerians in the diaspora?

Environmentalists oppose restarting oil production in Ogoniland, demanding a $1 trillion cleanup and implementation of a U.N. report before resuming operations. What steps should be prioritised to ensure environmental justice in Ogoniland?

Ghana's President Mahama appointed a special envoy to the Sahel Alliance to rebuild ties and strengthen regional cooperation. How can Ghana effectively rebuild trust with the Sahel nations?

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During China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit, President Tinubu urged expanding the $2 billion currency swap, revisiting the $50 billion Africa aid package, and supporting Nigeria's UN Security Council bid. China pledged deeper cooperation and implementing FOCAC agreements, and the China Development Bank granted Nigeria a $254.76 million loan for the Kano-Kaduna railway project. How will the railway loan and stronger ties with China impact Nigeria's development?

Nigeria's central bank fined nine banks $90,000 each for not dispensing cash via ATMs during the festive season. It also partnered with security agencies to curb illegal cash sales and enforce withdrawal limits for PoS operators. What can banks do to comply with cash availability guidelines?

Ghana's inflation rose to 23.8% in December 2024 due to higher food prices, with energy sector debt reaching $3 billion. Energy Minister-designate John Jinapor proposed private sector involvement to enhance power distribution efficiency. How might inflation and energy reforms affect Ghana's economy?

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Nigeria's poor road infrastructure poses a significant economic burden, costing the country billions of naira annually in lost productivity and resources. SBM recently surveyed 245 commercial drivers across eight major hubs, and we saw widespread dissatisfaction with road conditions. We talk about the report.

Landmark Africa, known for the Landmark Beach Resort in Lagos, plans to relocate its Nigerian headquarters and expand its operations following the April 2024 demolition of its iconic resort—a loss estimated at $80 million. What could Landmark Africa’s move mean for Lagos and the Nigerian real estate market?  

Nigerian telecom companies, citing rising operational costs, have proposed a 100% tariff increase. How will this tariff increase impact the average Nigerian and the broader economy?  

Finally, French President Emmanuel Macron has expressed frustration with African leaders in the Sahel region, accusing them of ingratitude despite France’s military assistance against terrorism since 2013. How do Macron’s comments and France’s withdrawal shape the future of security and diplomacy in the Sahel? 

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For our final podcast of the year, we’ll review 2024 highlights and look ahead to 2025 using SBM’s The Year Ahead Report.

Regarding the economy, we think that oil prices in 2025 will stay steady at $65-$75 per barrel. Nigeria’s oil production may fall short of its 2 million barrels/day target, hitting 1.8 million instead. We expect GDP to grow by 3.5%, but inflation could remain high at 28%. Tax reforms and improved earnings from oil and taxes might stabilise finances, but the Naira could weaken further.  Will reforms drive growth, or will inflation remain a key challenge?

In Politics, we believe that a new northern opposition group may challenge the Tinubu administration. A cabinet reshuffle might see Nyesom Wike lose his role, while we expect Chukwuma Soludo to win a second term in Anambra. How will these political shifts shape 2025?

Threats from Al Qaeda-linked groups may rise in Nigeria's Northwest, while IPOB violence in the Southeast could reduce slightly. We expect youth gang activity to increase around the country. Can Nigeria improve security?

Across Africa, Ghana will face tax and energy issues even as inflation eases. Islamist violence could escalate in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Benin. What will rising violence and economic challenges mean for Africa’s stability?

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This week in Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria fined Moniepoint and OPay ₦1 billion ($578,000) each in Q2 2024 for compliance violations, adding to its regulatory clampdown. Are these measures necessary for financial stability, or could they hinder fintech innovation?

Meanwhile, the country recorded a ₦5.81 trillion trade surplus in Q3 2024, with exports surging 98% from last year. While this marks eight consecutive positive quarters, the surplus dipped compared to Q2. Can Nigeria maintain this trend amid global market shifts?

John Mahama won Ghana’s 2024 presidential election with over 53% of the vote. A smooth transition is in progress, with his inauguration set for December 11. What will Mahama’s leadership mean for Ghana’s future?

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This week, it's all about Ghana. The country is preparing for Sunday's elections and is set to go to the polls to elect a new president. The political landscape is heating up as candidates gear up for a highly competitive race.

Then, Ghana's Jubilee oil field production dropped to 89,000 barrels per day due to issues with the J69-P well and downtime at Ghana Gas Company. Ghana also owes $40 million in overdue gas payments. While cocoa buyers paid over $500 million upfront to Cocobod, the organization faces a $1 billion loss from unfulfilled contracts. How could the drop in oil production affect Ghana's economy?

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