For our final podcast of the year, we’ll review 2024 highlights and look ahead to 2025 using SBM’s The Year Ahead Report.

Regarding the economy, we think that oil prices in 2025 will stay steady at $65-$75 per barrel. Nigeria’s oil production may fall short of its 2 million barrels/day target, hitting 1.8 million instead. We expect GDP to grow by 3.5%, but inflation could remain high at 28%. Tax reforms and improved earnings from oil and taxes might stabilise finances, but the Naira could weaken further.  Will reforms drive growth, or will inflation remain a key challenge?

In Politics, we believe that a new northern opposition group may challenge the Tinubu administration. A cabinet reshuffle might see Nyesom Wike lose his role, while we expect Chukwuma Soludo to win a second term in Anambra. How will these political shifts shape 2025?

Threats from Al Qaeda-linked groups may rise in Nigeria's Northwest, while IPOB violence in the Southeast could reduce slightly. We expect youth gang activity to increase around the country. Can Nigeria improve security?

Across Africa, Ghana will face tax and energy issues even as inflation eases. Islamist violence could escalate in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Benin. What will rising violence and economic challenges mean for Africa’s stability?

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This week in Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria fined Moniepoint and OPay ₦1 billion ($578,000) each in Q2 2024 for compliance violations, adding to its regulatory clampdown. Are these measures necessary for financial stability, or could they hinder fintech innovation?

Meanwhile, the country recorded a ₦5.81 trillion trade surplus in Q3 2024, with exports surging 98% from last year. While this marks eight consecutive positive quarters, the surplus dipped compared to Q2. Can Nigeria maintain this trend amid global market shifts?

John Mahama won Ghana’s 2024 presidential election with over 53% of the vote. A smooth transition is in progress, with his inauguration set for December 11. What will Mahama’s leadership mean for Ghana’s future?

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This week, it's all about Ghana. The country is preparing for Sunday's elections and is set to go to the polls to elect a new president. The political landscape is heating up as candidates gear up for a highly competitive race.

Then, Ghana's Jubilee oil field production dropped to 89,000 barrels per day due to issues with the J69-P well and downtime at Ghana Gas Company. Ghana also owes $40 million in overdue gas payments. While cocoa buyers paid over $500 million upfront to Cocobod, the organization faces a $1 billion loss from unfulfilled contracts. How could the drop in oil production affect Ghana's economy?

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After being idle for a couple of decades, the 59-year-old Port Harcourt Refinery suddenly resumed operations. With an initial production capacity of 60,000 barrels per day, this marks a major step in reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel. How quickly will this impact fuel supply and stabilize the domestic market?

The National Bureau of Statistics reported that Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.46% in Q3 2024, up from 3.19% in Q2 driven by a strong services sector and improved oil production. Unemployment fell to 4.3%, but with rising lending rates at 27.50%, how real is this progress?  

In Ghana, election tensions are high. Journalist Oheneba Nana Asiedu was arrested for spreading false information, while opposition leader John Mahama accused the ruling party of voter intimidation. How will this affect the upcoming 7 December elections? 

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On November 21, Simon Ekpa, a dual citizen of Nigeria and Finland and self-proclaimed IPOB leader, was arrested in Finland on terrorism-related charges. Accused of using social media to incite violence in Nigeria, his arrest highlights the impact of online rhetoric. How will this affect separatist activities in southeastern Nigeria?

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu visited Chad’s President Idriss Déby to strengthen ties against jihadist groups following Deby's threat to quit the Multi-National Joint Task Force. Can enhanced regional cooperation curb the ongoing violence in the Sahel?

Finally, in a week of critical elections from one end of the Sahel to the other, Senegal got a new parliament, Gabon passed a new constitution to prevent dynastic rule post-coup, and Somaliland got a new leader in a landmark election. How might these political shifts shape governance and stability in Africa?

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We start with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Nigeria, the first by an Indian PM in 17 years. With over $27 billion in Indian investments in Nigeria, what is the potential to expand trade and cooperation? Will this historic visit deepen Nigeria-India ties?

Next, Nigeria’s economic woes are mounting. Manufacturers report ₦1.24 trillion in unsold inventory, a 357.6% spike from last year, while cable TV provider Multichoice lost 243,000 subscribers due to rising costs. How can businesses cope?

Finally, Mozambique faces unrest over disputed elections, leading to deadly protests and a closed border with South Africa. Could the violence spill over and affect regional stability?

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We begin in Southern Africa, where Botswana is undergoing a historic political shift. After 58 years of Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) rule, the country has elected opposition candidate Duma Boko of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) as its new president. What are the implications of his victory for Botswana's future? What are the broader political impact of the UDC's parliamentary win?

In Nigeria, 32 out of Nigeria's 36 states rely on federal allocations for over 55% of their revenue, with Lagos and Rivers being exceptions. We explore the impact of this dependence on state economies, how other states can increase internal revenue, and the challenges President Tinubu may face in passing the tax reforms bill amid opposition from the Northern States Governors Forum.

Finally, we discuss the 60% drop in foreign travel in Nigeria, with passenger numbers at key airports in Lagos and Abuja falling sharply due to the high cost of foreign currencies, especially the US dollar. This has made international travel increasingly expensive for Nigerians. We explore the potential impacts on Nigeria's aviation industry, how Nigerians might adapt, and what the government can do to address the currency challenges.

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We begin in Ghana, where Islamist militants from Burkina Faso are allegedly using northern Ghana for supplies and medical support, despite denials from Ghanaian authorities. Is Ghana at risk of becoming a safe haven for insurgents? How might this impact regional security?

In Nigeria, terrorists have reportedly overtaken the Nagwamase Military Cantonment in Niger State, displacing over 20 communities. How will this security breach affect local stability, and what does it say about Nigeria’s counterinsurgency efforts?

Finally, a Federal High Court has halted federal allocations to Rivers State over irregularities in its 2024 budget approval. Could this decision disrupt governance in Rivers? What does it mean for fiscal accountability?

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Nigeria's government has proposed a 5% excise duty on telecom services, gaming, and betting as part of a new tax reform bill. How will this new tax burden affect consumers and businesses, and what could it mean for Nigeria’s digital economy?

Next, the Dangote Refinery missed its petrol supply targets, delivering only 148 million litres instead of 575 million litres between mid-September and early October. How would this affect fuel availability and prices in the coming months?

Finally, Jumia is exiting South Africa and Tunisia to focus on more profitable markets like Egypt, Kenya, and Nigeria, citing economic challenges and strong competition in those regions. Will this strategic shift improve Jumia’s profitability, and what impact will it have on the e-commerce landscape in Africa?

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We begin in Northern Nigeria,  where less than a month after Defence Minister Bello Matawalle faced accusations of sponsoring banditry, Bauchi South Senatorial District lawmaker Shehu Umar Buba is facing similar allegations. Though the Muslim Rights Concern has refuted these allegations, how will these accusations affect the lawmaker’s political standing, and what does this mean for regional security?

In the Horn of Africa, the Presidents of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia have joined the Somali Army in its anti-terror fight, leaving Ethiopia further isolated. With regional dynamics shifting, how will Ethiopia navigate this growing isolation, and what will it mean for regional stability?

Finally, in Nigeria, the headline inflation rate for September 2024 rose to 32.70%, up from 32.15% in August. Food inflation reached 37.77% year-on-year, and core inflation hit 27.43%. How will this sharp rise in inflation affect everyday Nigerians, and what can the government do to stem the tide?

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