Three months into the Iran-Israel conflict, markets have stopped treating it as breaking news and started treating it as the new wallpaper. Brent oil chopped between US$94 and US$98 a barrel last week as the latest Israel-Lebanon ceasefire wobbled, Hezbollah rejected the framework, and an Iranian oil tanker was hit in the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The "rolling three weeks until resolution" narrative is now in its fourth month, and a long tail of higher input costs is feeding quietly into producer prices around the world.

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