The final week of January delivered a stark reminder that even the most powerful trends can reverse abruptly when the right catalyst emerges. Gold's precipitous 10% fall and silver's eye-watering 30% decline, dominated headlines, yet the month overall proved constructive for diversified portfolios.

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A month after our year-end review, Economist Andrew Hunt's message when we spoke to him earlier this week had sharpened: the U.S. credit boom continues at a blistering pace, but the foreign capital that sustained 2025's rally is becoming erratic. The result is an increasingly binary outlook where timing matters more than ever.

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Markets navigated a turbulent week as the collision of geopolitical uncertainty and shifting monetary policy expectations drove dramatic moves across asset classes, with Australian inflation data adding further fuel to an already volatile mix.

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In our latest check-in with Fortlake’s Dr Christian Baylis from Fortlake Asset Management we discuss why Australian bonds are offering value, why credit quality matters more than chasing yield and where diversification can still be found in 2026.

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Global markets experienced a turbulent week as investors juggled geopolitical uncertainty, shifting sector dynamics and the early stages of Q4 earnings season.

In short:
Money kept moving away from big tech into smaller companies.
The Russell 2000 outperformed for a tenth straight session while most of the Mag 7 declined. Importantly, more than 300 S&P 500 stocks were higher despite index weakness, showing a shift away from concentrated market leadership.

Economic data supported a ‘resilient but uneven growth’ narrative.
The U.S. job market remains solid and growth in the UK and Germany surprised on the upside. China met its growth target, but mainly through exports, with consumer spending still weak.

Early earnings showed profits are holding up, but valuations are under scrutiny.
Big U.S. banks reported decent results, but their share prices barely moved as investors focused on costs and the outlook. A strong result from TSMC was a bright spot for technology stocks.

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After a holiday period that saw the traditional Santa rally fail to materialise, 2026 has begun with renewed vigour across global markets. The rotation trade that defined much of 2025 appears to be reasserting itself, with emerging markets and global small caps leading the charge in early January trading.

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Andrew Hunt speaks with Jonathan Ramsay about how record foreign inflows, led by China, kept markets elevated despite weakening fundamentals. They explore why the composition of those flows has shifted and what early signs of reversal could mean for markets heading into 2026.

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ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland made it clear at the 2025 Researcher Forum that private credit is now an enforcement priority, with the adviser channel squarely in focus. Done well, private credit plays an important role in the financial system, but ASIC has raised serious concerns around governance, transparency, fees and valuations across a sector that has grown 500% in a decade to more than $200 billion. In this week’s conversation, InvestSense Private Capital Specialist Joel Sasim and Betashares Director of Private Capital Jamie Fleiter unpack what this shift means for adviser due diligence and discuss Joel’s timely new paper on the topic.

Watch the video: https://www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/private-credit-a-due-diligence-reckoning-for-australian-private-credit?utm_source=Podcast&utm_medium=WWAWO 

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The past week delivered a notable shift in market psychology, with investors increasingly grappling with the prospect that the next move for several central banks may be up rather than down, except for in the all important US market. Australian assets bore the brunt of this repricing, though the theme resonated globally.

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Economist Andrew Hunt's concerns about China's policy constraints and shifting capital flows paint a challenging macro picture and in the past when the U.S. sneezed Emerging Markets caught pneumonia. Then in the GFC China bucked that trend by pushing the $1.5 trillion spend button. However, this time is different again. Chinese manufacturing PMI remains in contraction, fiscal spending is down sharply year-on-year, the PBOC is becoming more cautious, and credit expansion has been weak. Yet there's an irony embedded in this story: the very scenario Hunt envisages—where Western AI valuations face a reckoning and capital flows become more erratic—may actually favour emerging market equities, particularly those focused on domestic consumption. It was therefore natural for us to triangulate with ‘our people on the ground’ to look at the implications for emerging market portfolios and in this conversation with Tassos Stasopoulos of Trinetra Investment Management.  

Watch the video: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/there-still-opportunity-within-chinese-macro-constraints-with-trinetra-investment-management  

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