Whatever else happened in markets last week — and there was plenty — it was all overshadowed by a single event on Friday afternoon. The US Supreme Court, in a 6–3 ruling, struck down the bulk of President Trump's emergency tariffs, finding that IEEPA does not authorise the President to impose import duties. Trump immediately announced a replacement 15% global levy under Section 122 of the Trade Act, though that mechanism carries a 150-day time limit. It is a landmark constitutional moment, and markets are still digesting what comes next.

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The past week delivered a tale of two markets. On one side, a reassuring U.S. inflation print and a surprisingly strong labour market report suggested the American economy remains on solid footing. On the other hand, a punishing rotation out of technology stocks reminded investors that the AI investment boom carries real risks and that concentration in a handful of mega-cap names can cut both ways.

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Markets spent the first week of February grappling with an unusually dense set of cross-currents, an Australian rate hike, a crisis of confidence in big-tech capital spending, volatile commodity prices, and a US data picture clouded by the partial government shutdown. But beneath the headline volatility, the more interesting story may be what's happening under the surface: a rotation trade gaining momentum, unstable correlations, and a growing divergence between Australian and global monetary policy that is robbing Aussie diversified portfolios of their traditional currency cushion.

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Tassos Stassopoulos, founder of Trinetra Investment Management, has spent over two decades focusing on a different opportunity, the emerging market consumer. Trinetra’s approach has always eschewed the tech-heavy markets of North Asia in favour of economies where domestic consumption drives growth: Indonesia, China, Brazil, Peru, and Chile. 

The big driver of the emerging market indices recently has been Korean memory chips and Taiwanese semiconductor foundries. These are undoubtedly impressive businesses, but they present a problem: they move in lockstep with U.S. technology giants. For those seeking genuine diversification, looking elsewhere in the emerging world may provide better portfolio diversification.

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The final week of January delivered a stark reminder that even the most powerful trends can reverse abruptly when the right catalyst emerges. Gold's precipitous 10% fall and silver's eye-watering 30% decline, dominated headlines, yet the month overall proved constructive for diversified portfolios.

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A month after our year-end review, Economist Andrew Hunt's message when we spoke to him earlier this week had sharpened: the U.S. credit boom continues at a blistering pace, but the foreign capital that sustained 2025's rally is becoming erratic. The result is an increasingly binary outlook where timing matters more than ever.

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Markets navigated a turbulent week as the collision of geopolitical uncertainty and shifting monetary policy expectations drove dramatic moves across asset classes, with Australian inflation data adding further fuel to an already volatile mix.

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In our latest check-in with Fortlake’s Dr Christian Baylis from Fortlake Asset Management we discuss why Australian bonds are offering value, why credit quality matters more than chasing yield and where diversification can still be found in 2026.

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Global markets experienced a turbulent week as investors juggled geopolitical uncertainty, shifting sector dynamics and the early stages of Q4 earnings season.

In short:
Money kept moving away from big tech into smaller companies.
The Russell 2000 outperformed for a tenth straight session while most of the Mag 7 declined. Importantly, more than 300 S&P 500 stocks were higher despite index weakness, showing a shift away from concentrated market leadership.

Economic data supported a ‘resilient but uneven growth’ narrative.
The U.S. job market remains solid and growth in the UK and Germany surprised on the upside. China met its growth target, but mainly through exports, with consumer spending still weak.

Early earnings showed profits are holding up, but valuations are under scrutiny.
Big U.S. banks reported decent results, but their share prices barely moved as investors focused on costs and the outlook. A strong result from TSMC was a bright spot for technology stocks.

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After a holiday period that saw the traditional Santa rally fail to materialise, 2026 has begun with renewed vigour across global markets. The rotation trade that defined much of 2025 appears to be reasserting itself, with emerging markets and global small caps leading the charge in early January trading.

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