The InvestSense Podcast

For a third consecutive week, equity markets rallied in the face of a conflict that, on the ground, has barely improved. The S&P 500 rose 4.5% to a fresh all-time high, recouping the entirety of its post-war losses, while the Nasdaq surged on the back of strong early earnings and renewed AI enthusiasm. European bourses gained but have yet to reclaim their pre-war peaks — the Euro Stoxx 50 added 2.2% and the DAX 3.8%, though both remain more exposed to the energy shock than their US counterpart. The ASX 300, by contrast, finished the week roughly flat, held back by a sell-off in the major banks after Westpac and NAB both flagged increased provisioning for bad debts in anticipation of a war-driven economic slowdown.

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The past week was again dominated by the Iran–US conflict, with markets riding a hope-and-disappointment cycle that began with a ceasefire announcement on 7 April and ended with the weekend's talks in Islamabad collapsing into stalemate. By Sunday, President Trump had declared a US naval counter-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pledging to interdict any tanker paying an "illegal toll" to Tehran — a marked escalation that sets up an abrupt mood reversal heading into this week's sessions.

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Global equity markets ended last week higher, but the gains mask a fair degree of intraweek volatility driven almost entirely by the evolving conflict between the United States and Iran.

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March 2026 will be remembered as the month geopolitics seized control of global markets. The US-led military intervention in Iran, which began on 1 March, evolved over four weeks from a shock event that most investors expected to be short-lived into what the IEA has labelled the greatest energy security threat in history. It has redrawn the map for equities, bonds, currencies and commodities in ways that will reverberate well beyond the month's end. 

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The headlines are alarming. Oil shocks, stagflation talk, investment decisions being deferred. But the case for panic may be premature. The Fed, US Treasury and PBOC have injected extraordinary amounts of liquidity into the global financial system, keeping markets remarkably buoyant even as the real economy deteriorates. Economist Andrew Hunt shares where to watch for signs the signal is turning from amber to red. 

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It was a week that began with cautious hope and ended in something close to alarm. Global share markets sold off sharply, bond yields surged, and oil climbed relentlessly as the war between the United States, Israel and Iran escalated well beyond what most investors had been pricing in just days earlier.

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The Australian reporting season delivered more beats than misses, with miners and banks leading the way. But the more interesting story played out in software, companies reporting decent numbers only to be dragged back down by broader AI disruption fears. Tim Binsted, Head of Australian Equities shares which businesses have genuine moat friction and where the opportunities might sit as the sector reprices. 

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Sixteen days into the US-Iran conflict, markets remain hostage to events in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has traced a remarkable arc since the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei on 28 February, surging from $67 to touch $120 on 9 March before settling around $101 at the time of writing. The pattern has become familiar: escalation drives oil higher, a de-escalation headline triggers a sharp reversal, then reality reasserts and prices grind back up. Critically, each cycle is establishing a higher floor.

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The software sector's reckoning has hit global growth managers hard, some down 15% or more in three months. So how has Munro Partners emerged largely unscathed? Portfolio manager Qiao Ma explains how disciplined risk management and genuine diversification made the difference, and where Munro is finding opportunity now. 

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What began as a targeted air campaign has rapidly escalated into the defining market event of 2026. Operation Epic Fury, the joint US-Israeli military action against Iran, has entered its second week with no credible diplomatic off-ramp in sight. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG transits — has been effectively shut for nine days, with tanker traffic at zero and insurers refusing to cover passage. Brent crude surged 28% over the week, its largest weekly gain since 2020, closing Friday at $93 before gapping above $108 on Sunday. WTI posted its biggest weekly gain on record, rising 36%.

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