The InvestSense Podcast

In our latest check-in with Fortlake’s Dr Christian Baylis from Fortlake Asset Management we discuss why Australian bonds are offering value, why credit quality matters more than chasing yield and where diversification can still be found in 2026.

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Global markets experienced a turbulent week as investors juggled geopolitical uncertainty, shifting sector dynamics and the early stages of Q4 earnings season.

In short:
Money kept moving away from big tech into smaller companies.
The Russell 2000 outperformed for a tenth straight session while most of the Mag 7 declined. Importantly, more than 300 S&P 500 stocks were higher despite index weakness, showing a shift away from concentrated market leadership.

Economic data supported a ‘resilient but uneven growth’ narrative.
The U.S. job market remains solid and growth in the UK and Germany surprised on the upside. China met its growth target, but mainly through exports, with consumer spending still weak.

Early earnings showed profits are holding up, but valuations are under scrutiny.
Big U.S. banks reported decent results, but their share prices barely moved as investors focused on costs and the outlook. A strong result from TSMC was a bright spot for technology stocks.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/geopolitics-rotation-and-early-earnings-test-market-confidence

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-caught-between-shutdown-relief-and-valuation-reality

After a holiday period that saw the traditional Santa rally fail to materialise, 2026 has begun with renewed vigour across global markets. The rotation trade that defined much of 2025 appears to be reasserting itself, with emerging markets and global small caps leading the charge in early January trading.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-start-2026-with-momentum-but-caution-is-warranted  

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Andrew Hunt speaks with Jonathan Ramsay about how record foreign inflows, led by China, kept markets elevated despite weakening fundamentals. They explore why the composition of those flows has shifted and what early signs of reversal could mean for markets heading into 2026.

Learn more: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/2025-year-in-review-part-two-the-year-capital-flows-defied-expectations 

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ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland made it clear at the 2025 Researcher Forum that private credit is now an enforcement priority, with the adviser channel squarely in focus. Done well, private credit plays an important role in the financial system, but ASIC has raised serious concerns around governance, transparency, fees and valuations across a sector that has grown 500% in a decade to more than $200 billion. In this week’s conversation, InvestSense Private Capital Specialist Joel Sasim and Betashares Director of Private Capital Jamie Fleiter unpack what this shift means for adviser due diligence and discuss Joel’s timely new paper on the topic.

Watch the video: https://www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/private-credit-a-due-diligence-reckoning-for-australian-private-credit?utm_source=Podcast&utm_medium=WWAWO 

Download the whitepaper: https://www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/private-credit-in-australia-whitepaper?utm_source=Podcast&utm_medium=WWAWO 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-caught-between-shutdown-relief-and-valuation-reality

The past week delivered a notable shift in market psychology, with investors increasingly grappling with the prospect that the next move for several central banks may be up rather than down, except for in the all important US market. Australian assets bore the brunt of this repricing, though the theme resonated globally.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/rate-hike-risks-resurface-across-major-economies 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-caught-between-shutdown-relief-and-valuation-reality

Economist Andrew Hunt's concerns about China's policy constraints and shifting capital flows paint a challenging macro picture and in the past when the U.S. sneezed Emerging Markets caught pneumonia. Then in the GFC China bucked that trend by pushing the $1.5 trillion spend button. However, this time is different again. Chinese manufacturing PMI remains in contraction, fiscal spending is down sharply year-on-year, the PBOC is becoming more cautious, and credit expansion has been weak. Yet there's an irony embedded in this story: the very scenario Hunt envisages—where Western AI valuations face a reckoning and capital flows become more erratic—may actually favour emerging market equities, particularly those focused on domestic consumption. It was therefore natural for us to triangulate with ‘our people on the ground’ to look at the implications for emerging market portfolios and in this conversation with Tassos Stasopoulos of Trinetra Investment Management.  

Watch the video: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/there-still-opportunity-within-chinese-macro-constraints-with-trinetra-investment-management  

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Global markets navigated a complex week as central bank policy paths continued to diverge sharply across regions.

In short:
What: Australia’s inflation rose to 3.8% and private capex surged 6.3%, removing the case for RBA rate cuts.
Why it matters: Higher-for-longer rates put Australia out of sync with global easing and lift funding and borrowing costs.

What: The UK budget offered more fiscal room but was overshadowed by leaked OBR forecasts.
Why it matters: Markets welcomed the near-term support but longer-term fiscal credibility remains uncertain.

What: Japan signalled a possible December rate hike, pushing short-term yields to GFC-era highs.
Why it matters: A shift away from ultra-easy policy could redirect global capital flows and lift the yen.

What: China’s PMIs contracted again across manufacturing and services.
Why it matters: Weakness in China threatens Q4 momentum and raises the likelihood of further stimulus in 2026.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/central-banks-diverge-as-australia-charts-its-own-course 

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This week we spoke to our consulting economist, Andrew Hunt, who has just returned from extensive meetings with U.S. investment banks and U.S. officials with an increasingly cautious assessment of global economic prospects. His message: the world may be on the cusp of a severe slowdown, with significant implications for Australian investors.

Read the article: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/why-the-global-economy-on-the-precipice-with-andrew-hunt  

Learn more about Andrew Hunt: https://www.hunteconomics.com/ 

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Markets endured a turbulent week that ultimately resolved with a more constructive tone. The week began under pressure from uncertainty around Fed policy, delayed U.S. economic data, and geopolitical tensions, before rebounding strongly as rate cut expectations firmed and risk appetite returned.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/a-week-of-two-halves 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck