The Weekly Insight

9.1% inflation and bank earnings made for an interesting week last week. But the market held in nicely, and we’re now seeing one of the strongest arguments we’ve seen yet on inflation peaking.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-stress-test/

It was another solid week in the markets last week.  The mood seems to be good coming off the holiday break.  But the next two weeks are going to be vitally important to how the market behaves for the rest of the summer.  There is a lot of new data and information coming out between now and next Wednesday which will determine if this market has found a bottom or if more rocky weeks lie ahead. 

Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-big-weeks-ahead/ ‎

Happy (belated) Independence Day! We hope you had a wonderful holiday weekend!

A lot has changed in the 246 years since the most important document in history was signed. We thought it might be a good time to take a look back and compare the world today vs. the world 246 years ago. The gains in health, wealth and safety are stunning. And they stand in direct contrast to the “sentiment” people have about the world today.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-life-liberty-the-pursuit-of-happiness

The Fed’s 75-basis point rate hike a week ago – and the justification for it – has made the market happy in the short-term.  But the longer-term consequences of tying interest rate policy to sentiment?  Probably not a good idea.  We’re going to need some good inflation data to get the course reset.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-new-rules-energy/

Last week was a very important – and very painful – week in the markets. We saw some hope on Friday, but we now find ourselves officially in bear market territory following the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by 0.75% last week. That decision – which was not based on the Fed’s longstanding economic analysis – was initially well received. In fact, it was what the market was practically demanding. Until folks woke up Thursday morning and immediately had buyer’s remorse.

We’ve entered a phase of this downturn that is completely decoupled from the economic trends. Instead, sentiment is begetting sentiment.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-circular-sentiment-firing-squad/

You probably remember the old “Choose Your Own Adventure” books from your youth. The book would get to a critical juncture and the reader would get to pick a path for the protagonist.  You’d then skip to the relevant section and read on about the impact of your choice.  Friday’s inflation report offered the same editorial choices to investors.  Were you looking for bad news? It was there.  Optimism? There was a bit of that as well.

The market has clearly chosen the “bad news” path for the story since the report came out. But we’re quickly getting to the next critical juncture of the story. The FOMC is meeting and making a decision on the next interest rate hike this week. 

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-choose-your-own-adventure-inflation/

We find ourselves at an interesting crossroads this week. Typically, the start of summer means a quieter time in the market. Investors, market makers, and pundits all tend to take some time off and focus a bit less on portfolios. But is that going to happen this summer?

Maybe. But the drama and volatility we’ve felt so far this year is going to have to work itself out. And there’s some pretty solid data to back up the fact that we’re not going to find ourselves in a recession in the next few months. That may mean some good things for the next few months.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-we-love-markets-in-turmoil/

Finally! We had a great week in the market last week as all major indices broke their losing streak. It was a nice way to go into the holiday weekend and validated our decision to put some extra money into equities as mentioned in last week’s memo.

As much as we’d love to believe the market is only going up from here, it’s never that simple. So this week we take some time to look down the field at what other risks exist out there.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-looking-down-the-field/

We’ve talked for weeks in the pages of our Weekly Insight Memo and on the Weekly Insight Podcast about the things driving fear in the market. Inflation, the Fed, the fear of a recession. Fear, it seems, can become its own self-fulfilling prophesy. We certainly saw that last week in the markets.

But sometime we have to set aside the emotions and look at the facts. And the facts are this economy is in much better shape than the pundits would have you believe.  The risk of a recession is remarkably low. And, we believe, inflation is peaking (or may have already peaked).

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-were-buyers-heres-why/

Last week was inflation week in the market.  We finally got the inflation data we’ve been waiting for. But what we didn’t get was a definitive answer. Do you think inflation is waning? There was data to back that up. Do you think inflation is going to get worse? There was data to back that up as well.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-inflation-crossroads/