The Weekly Insight

Last week was the week the market had been waiting for: Fed Week. The result was what we would consider to be positive news from the Fed.  The market thought so, too...until it didn't. The end result? You probably got whiplash if you were watching the market closely!

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-whiplash/

We’ve harped on “Fear and Greed” over and over again. Why? They are two of the biggest drivers of capital flows into and out of the market each and every year. And more often than not, they are exactly the wrong motivation at the wrong time.

It’s easy to recite the old Warren Buffett quote, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” and count it as sage wisdom. But it’s a lot harder to do. Why? Because fear, especially, and greed, to some degree, are biologically hardwired into our system.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fear/

The Fed waiting game is upon us again.  The market reacted last week to Federal Reserve leaders (notably including Chairman Powell) stating that a 0.50% hike in rates at the May meeting was likely. That shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise, but the market is now officially locking that in. The big question – however – is not what the Fed does, but what Chairman Powell says after the meeting on May 4th.  Is he optimistic about the future? Does he see inflation peaking? The market is begging for that information. And until then we wait!

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-while-you-wait/

Inflation. Interest rates. COVID. Ukraine. Wash, rinse, repeat.  The impact of these issues on the market and economy have been discussed and debated time and again by every pundit known to man. But what if the end of the world isn’t coming? What if there are some reasons to be optimistic in the face of all of this “dire news”?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-memo-are-we-bulls/

A bill passed the U.S. House last week – called the Secure Act 2.0 – which is designed to improve the system for retirement savings. On its face, it has a lot of good things in it: better catch-up contribution rules, delaying required minimum distributions until 75, etc. But the problem is, no one wants to have an honest conversation with American workers about their expectations for retirement.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-memo-the-truth-about-retirement/

Every week it seems there’s something new the “financial gurus” on TV are fretting about. Last week, it was the “inverted yield curve” and the near certainty it means a looming recession? But does it? Is a recession really coming?

Simply put, yes. A recession is coming. But that’s because a recession is ALWAYS coming! Over the last seventy years, we’ve had a recession, on average, every 6.4 years. They are a natural part of the economic cycle. But is the yield curve a good predictor? That depends. There are a LOT of yield curves. And which one you cherry pick can either be tremendously predictive or not at all.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-recession-is-coming-eventually/

Just two years ago last week, the market bottomed during the original “COVID Correction”. It seems like there has been constant drama since then. COVID surges, a contested Presidential election, inflation, interest rate debates, war, etc., etc. Which is why last week seemed so…strange.

Why? There wasn’t much drama! The market was up. The current dramas (inflation, Ukraine, interest rates, COVID) continued, but without any flare ups. It gave us a nice break to look at the future and see what the end of the quarter may bring.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-wheres-the-drama/

The Fed has finally spoken.  It announced a 0.25% rate increase last week (expected). But they also released their “dot plot” for the next few years and it showed the potential for seven rate hikes this year.  The market seemed to appreciate the Fed’s aggressive approach to inflation and rallied for the week.  But what will that mean for the market long-term? We take a deeper dive into the Fed’s decision and it may mean for portfolios in this edition of the Weekly Insight.

Read more here:  insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-spoonful-of-sugar

This week is the tale of two titans: Powell vs. Putin. The war in Ukraine – and especially its impact on the energy economy – is being felt around the world. Its impact on inflation is starting to be felt and may make things worse before they get better. How the U.S. – and specifically the Fed – responds this week is going to set the table for how markets do for the rest of the year. We know the FOMC is going to raise rates this week – but how many more rate hikes can we expect? And how much of an impact will shutting off Russian oil have on the economy?

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-powell-v-putin/

Last week was a tale of wild swings in the market. Bad news on Ukraine? Markets down hard. Good news on the economy and interest rates? Markets up strongly. It truly was a tale of two markets. And, while the volatility continues today, there is reason to be optimistic about the economic situation here in the United States. Barring a true “Black Swan” event where NATO and Russia enter into direct conflict – something we still consider unlikely – there continue to be opportunities to succeed in this environment.

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-tale-of-two-markets/