This week was a lot! The week opened with debate over Trump’s attack on Iran front and center, as increasing evidence came forward (I wrote more here) that the strikes did not in fact “obliterate” Iran’s nuclear sites. Trump and his regime sought to change and control the narrative on Iran by attacking the media, and calling those who questioned the outcome various forms of unpatriotic. Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ and very unpopular tax bill passed the Senate, 51–50, as details emerged that it would balloon the national debt by $3.3 trillion, benefit the top 20% of earners, harm the bottom 20%, and kick at least 17 million Americans off of Medicaid. Two Republicans who were against the bill, and have stood up to Trump and been the target of his threats, said they would not seek re-election in 2026. Meanwhile, with one week to go until July 9, the end date of Trump’s 90-day tariff pause, not a single deal has been finalized. With all this happening, he harkened back to ole faithful, immigration, with a trip to Florida’s hastily constructed ‘’Alligator Alcatraz,’ to change the subject to his comfort zone, even as his polling numbers on immigration continue to fall.

The pushback to Trump suffered a major blow this week, with a Supreme Court ruling that will limit nationwide injunctions by federal courts to state or region. Notably, the 6–3 majority opinion was written by Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who has previously been chastised and threatened by Trump and his supporters, but with this ruling was showered with his praise. The ruling will have major impacts on the ability to slow or halt Trump’s agenda.

While all this is happening, it is important to not lose sight of what is happening at our federal agencies. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. convened a panel of anti-vaxxers to make decisions on vaccinations, more than 200 employees of the Environment Protection Agency said in a letter that their agency is being politicized, and more. Read the full list if you can. Also noteworthy is the continued targeting of schools and colleges, with ongoing cuts, freezing of funding, and legal threats. Notably, the president of the University of Virginia resigned this week under pressure from Trump and conservatives.

The biggest story of this week is Trump potentially taking us to war, after ordering strikes on Iran. I have urged readers of my Substack to follow the facts, and maintain a healthy amount of skepticism, because on face value, and knowing Trump’s patterns, a lot of things we have been told initially do not make sense.

First off, was there any doubt after the way Trump has pushed boundaries and grabbed for power during his second regime that he would act unilaterally? Was it constitutional? Probably not. But as we cover in this project, breaking norms in turn makes them the new normal, and other presidents have done the same. What differentiated Trump is that he left senior members of Congress who are Democrats in the dark — that is a first, and a highly partisan act. And as we have covered, Republicans have abdicated their role as a check on power, neutering the legislative branch, so they likely weren’t consulted, but rather told.

What still doesn’t make sense to me is, why now? The regime has tried to pass this off as a well thought out strategy in advance, with a “ruse” or “misdirection” of Trump giving two weeks for diplomacy. In my five years of covering him, this has never been how he operates. He is impulsive, chaotic, and prone to acting based on his last conversation, which in this case, would have occurred at his Bedminster golf club, right before he gave the order. Notably, as I wrote about in my Wag the Dog? article, the strike did come at a time when Trump finds his approval at its lowest level during the second regime, and his approval on handling immigration dropping by six points in the aftermath of Los Angeles, and nearing the 80 day mark of his 90 day tariff war pause without a single finalized deal to show for it.

We also still need the facts behind what intelligence he based his decision on, the success of the mission, and what’s next. Trump is desperately trying to control the narrative here, but the facts are coming out and getting in his way. It was also notable with this attack that so many competent people are gone, and roles have gone unfilled, leaving Trump with a small circle of yes men, even in times of crisis.

This was a troubling and chaotic week for our country. At home, political violence continued to unfold, as a Minnesota man carried out a gruesome assassination of a Democratic state representative and her husband, and injured another Democrat as well, both on his long list of targeted individuals. An act of political violence would normally be a moment for the president to call for calm and a lowering of tensions. Trump, however, did the exact opposite. We are also observing a disturbing, growing trend of Democratic officials being manhandled and arrested in public view by federal immigration agents, and a Department of Homeland Security that only further escalates, rather than apologizing. As the week came to a close, Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) wondered, “Do the members of Congress need security details to defend themselves from the executive branch? God, I hope not.”

Trump finally got his long sought after military parade, but as I wrote here, it was a day of humiliation. His parade drew mere thousands to Washington D.C., and Trump could be seen pouting at the mundanity of it all! Magnifying the failure of his event, on that same day, millions of Americans protested at more than 2,000 demonstrations in 50 states in what was dubbed ‘No Kings’ protests. Trump’s military parade also highlighted dichotomies in his deployment of U.S. military forces: Trump has deployed nearly 7,000 National Guard and Marine troops to Los Angeles, while being reluctant to send troops to battle alongside Israel in one of his long-stated goals of ending Iran’s nuclear program. While the Republican Party had a very public rift over U.S. involvement in the Middle East, Trump appeared indecisive and uncertain, and questions arose about whether his National Security Council, now composed mostly of loyalists, was up to the task.

This week the country finds itself on the brink of the biggest crisis of Trump’s presidency, as he deployed both the California National Guard and U.S. Marines to the city of Los Angeles, amid anti-ICE protests. As protests also start to pop up in other cities across the country, the question becomes whether Trump will take things one step further and invoke the Insurrection Act or declare Martial Law. The protests come after federal immigration enforcement ramped up mass arrests, a week after White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller excoriated senior ICE officials (see Week 30), and demanded a sharp increase in arrests and new tactics.

It was the perfect excuse for Trump to manufacture a crisis (I wrote more about it here) to distract from what was an ugly break up with Musk; his failures on foreign policy; the lack of a single signed deal 63 days into his 90 day tariff pause; and most importantly, his failure on the main issue he ran on both times, immigration! Ironically, the week started with Trump losing or backtracking on a series of immigration cases, including returning Kilmar Abrego Garcia to the U.S. (read more here). This crisis is the shiny coin Trump desperately needed, and could only have dreamed of.

There are also important stories this week about the continuing incompetence and outright negligence of federal agencies. HHS Sec. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. disbanded a panel of experts on immunizations, the EPA is gutted, and Trump said an unprepared FEMA would be shuttered after hurricane season, all while his regime tries to rehire federal workers who had been haphazardly cut by DOGE. With Musk out of the government, it is also unclear what role, if any, DOGE will play going forward. As we end this week, the country stares into a perilous abyss on so many fronts.

This was one wild week! We are approaching the two-third mark for Trump’s 90-day pause of his Liberation Day. He and his regime, despite their weekly start-of-week promises that deals are close at hand, have yet to sign a single one! Negotiations will not be getting any easier, as this week, the U.S. Court of International Trade struck down Trump’s tariffs, and the next day, a federal court did as well. While Trump currently has a stay on the first order, what country would want to cave to his demands now? Meanwhile, more signs appear this week of the negative impacts of Trump’s trade war domestically.

Trump also had a contentious week with his so-called big, beautiful bill, as a war broke out with Elon Musk — something we predicted would happen in this Substack series — with Musk labeling the bill a “disgusting abomination.” I wrote a lot more about the dynamics of this break up here, but suffice it to say, we are in the first inning of a battle that will undoubtedly intensify, and take us in unexpected directions.

This marks the second consecutive week in which Trump’s pace of breaking norms slowed considerably. Trump finds himself on the losing end of a number of court cases, which are pausing or nullifying many of his early actions. Trump is still in search of wins of any kind, as he is failing or falling short on major issues including foreign policy, immigration, and the economy. Trump lashed out in frustration this week, not at celebrities like last week, but instead at America’s top university and a top company, in what the WSJ Editorial Board termed a gift to China.

Wall Street has dubbed a new term, “TACO Trade,” or Trump Always Chickens Out, meaning he makes a threat, then pulls back. He did that once again this week, threatening the European Union on Friday, and pulling back on Sunday. As we passed the midpoint of his 90 day tariff pause, Trump has yet to finalize a single trade deal.

This week has the fewest broken norms since Trump’s inaugural. As in the prior four weeks, Trump finds himself struggling for wins on his main issues — the economy, immigration and foreign policy — and in many ways, his presidency is floundering and in retreat.

Reminiscent of the first regime, when Trump was failing he would strike out to release anger and change the subject, this week Trump aired petty grievances against several celebrities, and made unwarranted accusations about some.

Likewise, his regime undertook a series of actions this week that appear aimed at petty retribution, with most likely to be challenged in court and be halted. The regime too is struggling to find victories or achieve major goals. This week real questions come into play about the effectiveness of leadership and abilities of federal agencies. Airports experienced more blackouts. Severe storms rocked the country, while the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Weather Service are in a state of disrepair after DOGE cuts .

This week, the growing number of Trump’s conflicts of interest and grifts, which we have been documenting each week, at long last took center stage! What did it take to finally get Republicans in Congress to react? It wasn’t the billions that the Trump family is pocketing in plain sight in the crypto market. What it took was Trump accepting a $400 million Boeing 747 from the Qatari royal family as a gift ahead of his first Middle East trip. A gift that would cost taxpayers hundreds of millions to retrofit for Trump’s use as Air Force One, and that he would likely maintain use of even after his time in office.

The most noteworthy stories this week revolve around Trump’s grift. We’ve been covering Trump’s irreverence around conflicts of interest in the second regime, as well as examples each week of his using the office of the presidency to line his pockets; this week it seemed to all come together with some great reporting by the Times. If you want a good primer on how Trump has pocketed billions from cryptocurrency alone, you can read my article here.

Falling approval and a faltering economy help explain why approaching 100 days, Trump found himself in retreat. On at least seven major issues, Trump has capitulated or reversed his actions in recent weeks. Notably, his pace of breaking norms has markedly slowed as of late, first in Week 24 and even more so this week. We have reached another inflection point, from Trump’s early shock and awe to, for now at least, a moment of stop and question what is working.