The Weekly Rebalance

This week on The Weekly Rebalance, Ethan and Nick unpack the Fed’s expected 25 bps rate cut and what it means for markets heading into November. They discuss the steepening yield curve, inflation’s lingering impact, and why America’s middle class continues to feel the squeeze.

From tariffs to consumer spending trends — and even which candy stocks are outperforming — this episode blends macro insight with a dash of Halloween flavor.

References: Nilsson, K. P. (2025, October 28). Macrobond trends: Policy rate decisions across the Atlantic: Blindfolded easing and reluctant doves. Macrobond Trends. https://www.macrobond.com/resources/macro-trends/macro-trends-oct-27

In Episode 7 of The Weekly Rebalance, Ethan Dunbar and Nicholas Cargill explore two big themes shaping portfolios and households alike. They begin with a deep dive into international markets — discussing why global equities are finally showing signs of outperformance versus U.S. stocks, the historical context behind it, and the behavioral biases that keep investors anchored to domestic markets.

Then they pivot to the bond world and housing, unpacking how falling yields and shifting interest rate expectations are rippling through mortgage rates, refinancing activity, and home inventories. From diversification strategy to the new wave of homebuilding, this episode connects the dots between market dynamics and real-world financial decisions.

In this week’s episode, Ethan Dunbar and Nicholas Cargill dig into two of the most talked-about themes in today’s markets: the explosive AI trade and the renewed shine of precious metals. They unpack just how big the AI boom has become — comparing NVIDIA’s valuation to global GDPs and stock markets — and discuss whether the excitement has gone too far or if broader opportunities still lie ahead.

Later, they pivot to gold and silver, exploring their historical relationship, how each responds during Fed rate-cut cycles, and why Revisor currently favors gold over silver. From Roman-era ratios to modern-day tariffs and cutting cycles, this episode blends data, trivia, and market insight into one engaging discussion.

In this week’s episode of The Weekly Rebalance, Ethan Dunbar and Nicholas Cargill dig into what it means to manage risk as markets reach record highs. They break down the growing concentration in the S&P 500, why rebalancing is more about managing exposure than chasing returns, and how extended valuations could impact investors. The conversation also touches on new access to private equity, gold’s surprising strength over Bitcoin, and what shifting rates and policy mean for portfolios heading into 2025.

Weekly Market Update as of 9/30/2025In this week’s episode, Nicholas Cargill and Ethan Dunbar dig into the latest shifts in inflation data and how surprising revisions to PPI are reshaping expectations. They explore the Fed’s recent rate cut, its ripple effects on fixed income markets, and the challenges investors face as short-term yields retreat. The conversation then turns to the housing market, where low inventory, high borrowing costs, and “backwardation” dynamics create a unique landscape for buyers. Finally, they discuss strategies for managing cash in a falling-yield environment and the trade-offs investors must consider when balancing risk and return.

Weekly Market Update as of 9/23/2025

In this episode of The Weekly Rebalance, Ethan Dunbar and Nicholas Cargill discuss the Fed’s latest moves, weighing the risks of inflation versus unemployment and what Powell’s commentary means for investors. They also dive into how rate cuts flow into mortgage markets, the challenges of sector classification in today’s market, and why diversification and risk management are more important than ever.

Key topics include:

• Fed rate cuts and the tension between inflation risks and labor market weakness

• The impact of rate moves on mortgage rates and long-term debt costs

• Sector performance: why traditional classifications (e.g., consumer discretionary vs. tech) are increasingly blurred

• Tactical shifts toward value sectors, international equities, and alternatives like timberland and farmland

• The dominance of the Magnificent 7 and how risk management should guide portfolio decisions

👉 A clear, timely conversation for investors navigating today’s uncertain markets.

As of 9/16/25

In this week’s episode, Ethan Dunbar and Nicholas Cargill unpack the Fed’s upcoming rate cut decision, why Powell’s commentary could drive more volatility than the move itself, and what it all means with stocks at all-time highs. They share their strategies for balancing risk, leaning toward value, and taking advantage of fixed income opportunities in today’s uncertain environment.

Key topics include:

• Fed’s expected 25 bps cut and market reactions

• Why bonds look more attractive relative to equities

• Defensive positioning with value and international stocks

• Small-cap dynamics ahead of rate cuts

Weekly Market Update as of 9/9/2025

In this week’s update, our team discusses what’s driving today’s markets and where opportunities may lie. We cover:

• Stock performance versus bond yields and what’s next for diversification.

• Valuations of the “Magnificent 7” tech giants compared to international, value, and small-cap stocks.

• Insights on inflation trends, jobs data, and the outlook for interest rate cuts.

• A deep dive into gold’s surprising long-term performance and its role as a portfolio hedge.

• The debate over Bitcoin as “digital gold” and where it fits as an asset class.

Join us as we break down the latest numbers, share our perspectives on portfolio positioning, and look ahead to what investors should be watching.

In this episode of Weekly Rebalance, we dive into:✔ Market update: S&P 500 vs NASDAQ performance✔ Growth vs Value trends and Magnificent 7 impact✔ Fed meeting preview: Will we see a rate cut?✔ Research spotlight: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) and what it reveals about S&P 500 concentrationTimestamps:00:00 Intro02:00 Market Update08:50 Fed Rate Cut Expectations13:20 HHI Explained: Is the S&P 500 really diversified?25:40 Trivia & Historical Insights💬 Do you agree with our take on market concentration? Comment below!📌 Subscribe for weekly market insights#WeeklyRebalance #S&P500 #MarketUpdate #Magnificent7 #FedRateCut #InvestmentStrategy #MarketAnalysis #HerfindahlHirschmanIndex #FinancialMarkets #WealthManagement #ValueInvesting #growthstocks