we were on the phone recently, setting up an appointment with a nurse. she asked us what our preferred pronouns were, and by mistake we said “him/her”. after a moment of awkwardness, we caught ourselves, but we sure were glad we had the chance to correct ourselves. feel like TWR needs to correct something? email us!

big idea: the death of big oil is here

1. some great news wednesday signaled the end of big oil’s power. first, Shell, the world’s largest oil trader, lost a legal case in the Netherlands, where it is headquartered, forcing it to cut emissions by 45% by 2030. second, ExxonMobile lost a shareholder vote, with two climate activists elected to its board.
2. while both these events come with some caveats, they still form a narrative that has been building over the past decade - big oil is dead. neither society nor shareholders are interested in supporting petroleum companies that have no plans to transition to green energy.
3. now let’s get to the caveats. the Shell case, while significant, will be in appeals for years. it’ll also be virtually impossible for a dutch court to enforce Shell’s actions outside of europe. if the decision is upheld, instead of slowing their oil extraction, Shell may decide to simply sell parts of its operations - which wouldn’t really reduce emissions overall.
4. the ExxonMobile shareholder vote is important because the world’s largest hedge fund, BlackRock, voted for the climate activists to join the board. how much impact two treehuggers can have on a board of twelve is up for debate, but at least ExxonMobile will know it can’t continue business as usual.

story to watch: the west is facing a terrible summer

1. amid news that the world is likely to hit the 1.5 degree temperature threshold in the next five years, the western US is facing the driest summer in recorded history. lower than normal snowmelts and the lack of summer rains last year has resulted in critically low levels of water in dams around the grand canyon. scientists calculate that about half of these declines are caused solely by climate change. water levels are getting so low in these dams that there is a possibility the hydroelectric turbines may shut down, resulting in widespread power shortages across the west.
2. the federal government is predicting it will have to declare a water emergency for the first time ever this august. this would severely restrict water supplies from the colorado river to arizona and nevada farms, but would not affect cities or california - so dirty hippies won’t have a reason to skip showers.
3. hotter, drier weather will also result in a fiery summer. 4 million acres burned last year, another broken record. maybe it’s time for humans to admit we’re not supposed to live in the...

hi friends. a couple of you noticed we didn’t include our usual blurb at the top of last week’s issue - there was just so much to cover, we totally forgot to write one up! we know you’d never forget about us though, or about our subscriber referral program! we baked another batch of chocolate chip cookies this weekend, so get yours today by referring three friends.

big idea: israel wins the battle, loses the war

1. a ceasefire appears to be holding after 11 days of israel bombing the heavens out of gaza. after nearly 250 people died, a hundred thousand people displaced, six hospitals damaged, and half of gaza left without clean water, israel decided it had destroyed enough.
2. the ceasefire is tenuous at best, with israel continuing to attack people praying at al-aqsa mosque in jerusalem, israeli drones constantly flying overhead in gaza, and 72% of israelis thinking the war should continue. 
3. so what’s changed after all this bloodshed? on the ground, nothing really. the blockade of gaza will continue, settlers will keep on expanding their occupation of jerusalem and the west bank, netanyahu will hold onto power, the US will refuse to engage with hamas because they’re labeled terrorists, and arab nations will wish the palestine issue would just disappear.
4. however, it is clear that israel lost the PR war for the first time ever. media outlets (while still skewing heavily pro-israeli) did cover palestinian losses extensively, especially after the AP’s press office in gaza was destroyed by israel. social media in particular became unwelcome terrority for israeli propaganda, with TikTok videos of destruction in gaza gaining millions of likes. progressive activists drew parallels between the black lives matter movement and the plight of the palestinians. 
5. we hope this latest war on gaza has fundamentally shifted the overton window for political action here in the US. a Pew poll last week found that less than half of young jewish americans are “emotionally attached” to israel, compared to two-thirds of older ones. a February Gallup poll found that 53% of dems think the US should pressure israel to make peace with palestine, a record-high. Joe, who has moved to the left on domestic issues, is out of step with the current democratic party on foreign affairs. who knew a septuagenarian could have such old-fashioned views?

story to watch: Ford unveils electric F-150

1. Ford unveiled its second commercially available electric vehicle on wednesday, the F-150 Lightning truck. built on a slightly modified version of the gas truck’s platform, the Lightning promises up to 300 miles of range, 0-60 in 4.4 seconds, and the ability to act as a generator for your home, all starting at less than $40k.
2. Ford is betting people want a normal looking truck (not a spaceship) with a low price. the F-series is the best selling vehicle...

big idea: israel lights the fuse & attacks gaza

1. israel is several days into an aerial bombardment of gaza after attacking muslims praying in al-aqsa mosque in jerusalem late last week. protests and near-lynchings have also broken out across israel in cities where arabs and jews historically lived side-by-side in relative calm.
2. as usual, the violence is hugely asymmetric - over a hundred palestinians have been killed, including dozens of children, and only eight israelis. israel has targeted press offices, apartment buildings, and health clinics, and has caused water and power services to be severely curtailed.
3. the current violence is also linked to both israel’s and palestine’s recent election attempts. palestine’s elections were called off after it became clear hamas would overwhelmingly win, which has led hamas to saber-rattle more than usual to save face. israel’s march election led to a defeat of prime minister’s Netanyahu’s coalition. he was set to leave office this week before violence broke out, and it’s now increasingly unlikely that he will anytime soon due to the crisis he caused.
4. so, where’s the US in all of this? Joe said before the election he had no interest in resolving the arab-israeli conflict, and that military aid to israel (totalling $4 billion a year) shouldn’t be conditional on good behavior. he has so far stuck to these unreasonable promises, despite Bernie (and even some moderate dems) arguing that US money should come with strings attached. it’s clear that Joe sees nuclear negotiations with iran, where he needs israeli cooperation, as a higher priority.
5. we also want to note how important disinformation has been on the israeli side. the military and prime minister’s office have both put out misleading tweets and videos in recent days not just as a tactic to confuse hamas, but also to inflame tensions and spread lies about palestinians. this is the future of warfare - not just bombs and soldiers, but WhatsApp forwards and tweet storms. time to warn your crazy auntie about that sketch group she’s a member of.

story to watch: CDC drops mask recommendation

1. the CDC revised its recommendations on thursday, saying fully vaccinated adults mostly don’t need to wear masks and can stop social distancing. this comes as vaccines have been found to cut viral transmission and are highly protective against COVID variants.
2. states and companies were sent scrambling this week as people demanded local rules change to reflect the new guidelines. while Starbucks, Costco, and Trader Joe’s announced masks would essentially become optional in their stores, GM and Kroger have decided to stick with mask mandates. without vaccine passports...

we were taking a walk with our niece and nephew, and after answering our nephew’s question, he responded “was talking to sister, not uncle!”. while we’re uncertain how we feel about a two year old talking back to us, rest assured that this message is directed to you, not our niece. what’s the message, you ask? refer a friend today and win groovy prizes, like a coffee mug, a hoodie, or cookies! we promise, no sass included.

big idea: vaccine diplomacy

1. as india continues to set records for daily new infections amid continuing oxygen shortages, Joe announced he would support lifting international patent protections on COVID vaccines.
2. this is a major development which big pharma had lobbied successfully against until now. they worry competitors will use the technology not just during the current pandemic, but for future products, essentially stealing Pfizer & Moderna’s R&D. it’s unclear if Joe will be able to get this done. it requires international agreement, and germany (where Pfizer’s research partner is based) is refusing to sign on.
3. lifting these patents would theoretically allow for manufacturers around the world to quickly ramp up production of already approved vaccines. this comes amid major supply issues from india & china’s manufacturers, which haven’t been able to meet domestic needs (despite exporting millions of doses earlier in the year in PR moves). 
4. however, the reality is these manufacturers don’t have the expertise, supplies, or factory capacity to make Pfizer or Moderna’s vaccines anytime soon. it would likely take them a year or more to make them at scale. germany argues that it would be more efficient to simply export those vaccines from existing plants here and in europe. 
5. germany also feels that Joe is just grandstanding against china. they feel he knows waiving patents won’t do anything in the short-term, and wants to make the US look like the good guy since we haven’t exported many doses yet. who knew big pharma and European socialists could be on the same side of an argument?

story to watch: latest jobs report is...confusing

1. the jobs report revealed only 266,000 new jobs were created in april, well below expectations of a million new jobs. nobody really knows why the report was so bad, which has led to republicans and democrats falling back into their typical political talking points.
2. republicans are complaining that generous unemployment benefits are keeping people from working, leading some governors to cut them off for their residents. democrats are complaining that low wages, poor worker safety, and a lack of affordable child care are keeping workers at home. economists also point to more americans switching career paths, and supply issues with stuff like computer chips and lumber which can slow down business growth & hiring.
3. the truth is probably a little bit

our chocolate chip cookies for subscriber referrals have turned out to be so popular, we’re making another batch! reader G.H. even asked for extra cookies instead of stickers :drool emoji: we were happy to oblige, but we can’t keep baking cookies forever - refer three friends and get yours before we change prizes!

big idea: census says america needs more babies

1. the first results of the 2020 census were released this week, which dictates how house seats, electoral college votes, and federal spending are allocated
2. the midwest and northeast did surprisingly well, losing fewer house seats than expected to the south and west, with minnesota not losing a seat by just 26 residents. dems will lose 2-4 reliably blue house seats as a result.
3. however, the bigger story is that the US population grew by only 7.4% since 2010, the second slowest rate of growth ever. this was caused both by reduced immigration and lower birth rates. fewer new americans means slower economic growth, which means fewer new americans...it’s a vicious cycle much of europe and china are already trapped in. who knew babies didn’t just mean two years of no sleep and dirty diapers?
4. demographers believe the US is already locked into lower birth rates (as typically happens in most developed economies, with only the US bucking that trend until now), so Joe wants to make things easier for families, with proposals unveiled wednesday to provide free childcare & pre-K. even low immigration numbers will be tough to increase. mexico, our largest source of immigrants, has a growing middle class, resulting in fewer immigrants. 
5. we’ll also get out our soapbox and scream into the abyss for an expanded house, which could reduce gerrymandering's impact and increase the electoral college’s proportionality

story to watch: big tech is winning

1. this week, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google reported massive revenue and profit jumps so far this year. Google’s YouTube will bring in more money than all of Netflix, the iPhone brings in more money for Apple than all of Microsoft’s products, Amazon’s ad business alone brought in seven times Twitter’s revenues, and Facebook’s Instagram generated more money than Snap, Pinterest, LinkedIn, and TikTok - combined.
2. big tech didn’t simply survive the pandemic - it thrived and grew beyond anyone’s expectations. while there was an increasing drumbeat to rein in their monopolistic control thru much of last year, it seems that that momentum has been lost. the bigger these companies get,

we’ve always felt that celebrity endorsements are lame. from Ronaldo hawking weird japanese face strengtheners to Muhammad Ali putting his face on cockroach traps, it feels like celebrities are just selling out. don’t worry, TWR will never have celebrity endorsers - but we do need subscriber referrals! refer a friend today, and get cookies and swag mailed straight to your door. 

big idea: murderer found guilty of...murder

1. Derek Chauvin was found guilty of murdering George Floyd. 71% of americans support the verdict, including majorities of both parties. 
2. will this be a milestone in the new civil rights era or a moment quickly forgotten? we’ll come to know soon with the trials of three other officers involved in Floyd’s death, the inquest into the killing of a columbus girl, and if the senate passes a police reform bill.
3. notably, even fellow cops blew the whistle and testified against Chauvin, which likely would not have happened even a year ago. whistleblower cops (who arguably are the “good” ones) are typically punished and pushed out of forces as retribution.
4. so, are hearts & minds changing? maybe, but don’t forget that policy sometimes forces culture to change rather than vice versa. americans were by and large not ready for the civil, voting, or housing rights acts in the ‘60s, but LBJ pushed them through anyways as a way to shift societal norms.
5. finally, lost in much of the coverage was the role of Keith Ellison, the state AG who led the prosecution. we can’t help but point out he is a proud Wayne State alum (as is yours truly), and broke barriers by being the first muslim elected to congress. we hope Keith’s win will encourage other prosecutors to go after killer cops.

story to watch: change is afoot in soccer

1. we literally cannot believe we’re talking about the business of sports two weeks in a row, but here we go: the foreign kind of football was up in arms this week when the richest dozen european soccer teams decided to form their own league. fans, players, and coaches revolted, with the teams backtracking and apologizing within 48 hours. the super league idea is dead - for now. 
2. as always, we just have to follow the money. the billionaire owners of these soccer clubs realized they could make a ton more money with a ‘murican style league. advertising revenues would skyrocket because games would be more popular, and player salaries would plummet because competitive pressures...

loyal subscribers will know that this is a big week for TWR - it’s our big 1-0! we hope you’ve enjoyed the ride as much as we have. as a birthday gift, consider referring us to a friend and earn neat groovy dope cool prizes! we’re delivering our first batch of chocolate chip cookies to readers this week! they’re homemade with sea salt, browned butter, and toasted sugar 🤤

big idea: Joe commits to leaving afghanistan

1. Joe announced he would withdraw all american troops from afghanistan by 9/11. this goes well beyond his promises during the campaign, when he would only commit to withdrawing most troops by the end of his first term (not year). 
2. we predict pakistan, the taliban’s biggest sponsor, will push them to make significant concessions at the ongoing peace talks, and the US will convince the afghan government to do the same if they want to live past september. whether that’ll work, or if any such agreement will be lasting, is anyone’s guess. the taliban knows the afghan government will not go down without a bloody fight in cities like kabul.
3. for americans, it’s doubtful that the $50 billion we spend annually in afghanistan will be redirected towards domestic projects. troops will be stationed in nearby countries and contractors in afghanistan in case things fall apart (like in iraq). longer term, the US will continue drone strikes in afghanistan, as in yemen, somalia, and pakistan. well, we guess that’s the closest we’ll get to ending our endless wars...
4. for afghans, their country is in shambles after generations of war stretching back 200 years. women and ethnic minorities will likely lose what little progress they’ve made under either a peace agreement or taliban rule. this is an incredibly impoverished yet independent nation with over 20 separate militias or terror groups, a 50% literacy rate, and deep ethnic and tribal divides.
5. so, why did Joe decide to overrule the military and withdraw now? maybe he realized there’s little difference between 3500 and 0 troops on the ground, maybe he got tired of dealing with afghanistan and a global pandemic, maybe he saw al-qaeda had moved camp into the gulf and northern africa, or maybe he truly was sick of people dying overseas for little reason.

story to watch: NFL signs deal with bookies

1. the NFL signed a billion-dollar, 5-year deal with a casino and two online bookies, FanDuel and DraftKings, kicking off the sports gambling era in the US. it had been illegal for most of the US for decades up until a supreme court ruling in 2018. 
2. historically, all the professional leagues opposed sports betting because of a scandalous history of match fixing, biased referee calls, and point shaving. after the supreme court ruling though, they all jumped in, eager to make a quick buck off of gambling addicts, with the NFL being the last league to strike a deal. we shouldn’t

the weather’s warming up and flowers are blooming, so we all know what that means - spring cleaning! TWR is cleaning up our act too, and switching email providers. don’t worry, you’ll automatically keep receiving our sunday issues, and we’ll send you a welcome email tomorrow to make sure. just be sure to move that sender into your priority or main inbox. 

like what you see? refer a friend to TWR and receive groovy thank you gifts! congrats to reader N.K. for being the first subscriber to earn our homemade chocolate chip cookies. she does live like two thousand miles away in india, but that’s the distance we’ll go for our readers 😉.

big idea: china’s digital currency is taking off

china appears to be expanding its pilot of a government-run digital currency, called eCNY. first launched a year ago, 100,000 chinese citizens have been paying for their bubble tea with an app run by the central bank. instead of paying with cash yuans from their wallets, people pay with virtual yuans from their phones. one cash yuan is exactly equal to one virtual yuan in value, and theoretically could be exchanged.

china is the first major economic power to start such a currency, well ahead of rivals. the US has just done basic research and is years away from a pilot of this scale. 

arguably, china’s effort isn’t quite cryptocurrency - it doesn’t use blockchain for security and isn’t decentralized at all. every transaction goes through china’s central bank for verification. like cash, the eCNY essentially eliminates middlemen in financial transactions, like debit/credit card processors and private banks or credit unions.

there are some china-specific reasons for why they’re in such a rush to launch a virtual currency, but their pilot highlights a danger of such efforts. their central bank can track every single transaction through the eCNY app, a level of surveillance unparalleled in history. government digital currencies will be convenient, but cannot come at the cost of privacy.

story to watch: yellen for global minimum tax

treasury secretary Janet Yellen called for a corporate minimum tax rate among G-20 nations of 21%. Joe wants to raise the business tax rate to 28% in the US to fund his infrastructure plans (after He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named cut it from 40% to 21%).

negotiations have been ongoing for years among the world’s biggest economies, but Janet coming out in favor of them are a big boost. countries have been engaged in a ‘race to the bottom’ for decades, trying to entice companies to pack up and move headquarters with lower tax rates. the only short-term beneficiaries to such schemes are the tax haven countries with the lowest rates - ireland has just a 12.5% business tax. where do you think those leprechauns get all their gold from?

we’ll see what happens here, but it’s unlikely countries will agree to a number as high as 21%. everyone’s finally realizing that cutting corporate taxes hurts everyone in the long-term as the tax base is eroded.

this week’s image: easter at the white house

(The Atlantic) a bunny was caught attempting to impersonate the white house press secretary on easter monday. Joe...

one of our friends recently converted us to the cookie butter cult, and we couldn’t be happier with their recommendation. they inspired us to start the TWR referral program! share your unique link at the bottom of this email with friends and family, and you can earn prizes for each subscription. three new subscriptions earn you some homemade sea salt chocolate chip cookies, five earns you some sweet stickers, and we’ve also got branded coffee mugs, t-shirts, and hoodies available. spread the word & get rewarded!

big idea: government mandated covid passports are a terrible idea

with more countries adopting nationalized registries of vaccinated residents, and providing those people with ‘covid passports’ allowing freer movement, debate as to if ‘murica should follow suit is heating up. 

Joe has made it clear that the federal government won’t impose passports, but several states are in the process of rolling out systems similar to those overseas. if the goal of such initiatives is to boost vaccination numbers, they’re a terrible idea.

let’s examine the problems:

it’s unlikely passports entice hesitant groups to get vaccinated. heavy handed government schemes will likely harden anti-vaxxer sentiment, as in israel. those crazies don’t need another reason to think bill gates is trying to infect them with 5G trackers.

the analogy of schools and workplaces requiring vaccinations (like chickenpox or yellow fever) is a false one. covid vaccines were authorized under an emergency use protocol, which means they cannot be mandated by employers, and lack years of data on their long-term efficacy.

passports would exacerbate inequities due to unequal access to vaccine appointments among minorities. it’s clear minorities want vaccines as much as whites, but can’t get them.

the privacy and autonomy issue can’t be ignored. as mandated school vaccines have demonstrated, it’s nearly impossible to differentiate between who has a personal objection to vaccines and who cannot medically receive one.

while we do think private companies (like airlines) should be able to create industry-run passports, it’s clear that government should stay out of the whole ‘show me your papers’ thing. consumers should have the choice to take their money to businesses with or without passport requirements, rather than a problematic legal mandate. the government’s role should be limited to setting & enforcing standards for private sector initiatives.

story to watch: inflation is heating up the economy

real estate and commodity prices are increasing, raising the specter of inflation. the federal reserve aims for a 2% annual inflation rate, and the post-covid recovery may heat up the economy so we overshoot that target.

existing home sales in the US are at 14-year highs (pre-great recession levels), likely due to low mortgage rates, stimulus money, and urban flight. commodity costs (the raw materials needed to create...

our team has a complicated relationship with the social medias. it’s not that they’re not fun to use, it’s just that they’re...you know, destroying democracy and causing genocides. anyways, TWR is now on twitter! @faisalc93 & @ahmedhcheema, we’d love to hear from you!

big idea: crisis in the canal

Reuters

a quarter-mile long, ten-story deep ship ran aground in the suez canal Tuesday, blocking all traffic in the longest such stoppage ever. hundreds of ships are waiting around the canal for it to reopen. the latest digging efforts failed, but officials are hoping high tides today and tomorrow will refloat the monster-sized boat. we’re sure Ross’s pivot skills from “Friends” would help.

the suez halves the travel time between europe and asia, with the only other route involving weeks of travel along the pirate-infested coast of africa. the canal carries a whopping 10% of all global trade, with an estimated $400 million of goods delayed per hour it is closed. oil prices shot up 4% on friday as a result.

this is a huge black-eye for egypt’s latest dictator, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, whose economic plans centered around an $8 billion expansion of the canal. the suez only accounts for 1.5% of egypt’s GDP, but is a critical source of foreign currency. the canal has long been a symbol of the end of colonialism in the region, with the UK and france losing a war in the ‘50s over control of it.

this whole episode highlights just how critical a few canals and channels are to our globalized economy. the panama canal carries 5% of global trade, the strait of malacca between malaysia and indonesia carries a staggering 40%, and the strait of hormuz between iran and the arabian peninsula transports 25% of all crude oil. these numbers help explain china’s shenanigans in the south china sea, and iran’s in the persian gulf.

story to watch: the heat’s on Tesla

Tesla had a terrible week - it was caught threatening and firing workers who tried to unionize its plant in california, Consumer Reports called out its privacy-invading in-car cameras, the government is investigating 23 accidents involving Autopilot, and investors are increasingly viewing EV stocks as a bubble, not a boom. we don’t think smoking some pot will help solve these problems, Elon.

the regulatory and consumer honeymoon of Tesla is over. it’s finally being viewed as just another corporation -...