On Monday’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) looks at the first five games of the Stanley Cup Playoffs:

• How deserved was the winning team in each Game 1?

• How sustainable is the key element to victory?

• Is there a bet to make for Monday and Tuesday’s games?

Plus, there’s three series still left to drop the puck, so Matt breaks down how he views those series per his series previews.

• Blues vs. Jets

• Avalanche vs. Stars

• Devils vs. Hurricanes

• Senators vs. Maple Leafs

• Wild vs. Golden Knights

• Canadiens vs. Capitals

• Oilers vs. Kings

• Panthers vs. Lightning

Lastly, in a podcast-only feature, Matt goes shopping in the Conn Smythe markets, sprinkling a few plays on some potential standouts on a Stanley Cup contender at the best prices available, including a mistake made over at FanDuel.

It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

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On this week’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) opens the show discussing THE MASTERS, and a rare situation where cheering for someone or some THING superseded a by-the-rules bet. Until it led to one.

Matt tells the story of how he eventually bet on Rory McIlroy after spending Sunday trying to balance the concept of the ‘heart hedge’. 

Matt talks about how decades of betting on team sports has pulled him away from being a fan of the brand (as already-rich owners bleed everything they can out of the teams’ fans), but how his love of golf has shifted his concept of fandom towards those he believes are earnestly self-aware, playing that game for the big money they earn with results, while seeming to try to make the game better for those who consume it.

Then, the Stanley Cup Playoffs are imminent. Matt reflects on last week’s piece about the three most important things for handicapping playoff hockey. 

Why even-strength play is more under the microscope in the postseason, how scoring talent can be measured, and searching for at least a hint as to who might be the hot goalie to start the playoffs. Matt breaks down how he’s building team ratings off of those three elements to create a projected series win probability for eight upcoming previews.

Lastly, Matt details the content plan for the Stanley Cup Playoffs:

• Series previews for every matchup

• In-Series betting updates, as necessary 

• Double the podcasts, reflecting on game results

It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

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On this week’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) opens the show discussing Monday night’s National Championship between Florida and Houston. How the Gators outlasted the Cougars, only to have a riveting (if a little sloppy) end in the saddest of ways for those of us trying to watch from the perspective of a fan, having already secured a profit with futures tickets on both sides.

It’s about that time of year, as THE WINDOW is ramping up for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Matt breaks down last week’s first of two postseason primers, looking at what a goal scored is worth to a team’s chances of winning and what a goal saved is worth as well, and how that will frame how we watch the NHL’s postseason knowing so much of it comes down to good and bad bounces and the tiny margins of sudden-death overtime. 

Then, it’s Masters week, which means the sporting (and sports betting) world turns its attention to Augusta National, but there’s a fundamental flaw in how we bet golf - our most finicky game. Matt’s got an exercise that you can do to help you live bet the Masters, giving you a better chance at profitability if you just hold your fire until after the event starts. 

Plus, he’s got a handful of top-20s worth firing on, based on course history - one of the key components to Masters betting. 

It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

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On this week’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) discusses how each region of the NCAA Tournament bracket produced it’s 1-seed into the Final Four, for just the second time in modern history. 

Matt looks at shooting outliers - positive and negative - from the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight, and how a lack of Madness in this year’s event was a bigger deal than the top teams getting to San Antonio.

Matt breaks down the conceptual difference between a bet on Duke to win their region and betting Florida to win theirs at similar odds. How despite both cashing for their bettors, why the Blue Devils’ path set them up nicely and Florida could have bet with the same odds in their individual games. Plus, why Duke’s title futures odds haven’t been worth betting, not because they weren’t capable of the run they’ve had, but because of the last two games they have to play. 

Is there anything to do with our national title tickets on Houston and Florida? 

Plus, despite favorites going 12/12 straight up this past week, we have a solo winner in THE WINDOW’s Tournament Survivor contest. 

It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

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On this week’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) discusses the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament in an attempt to touch on all 52 games in 52 minutes.

Matt looks at how a rough 0-3 start to Thursday came to be, in three different ways, but how it was salvaged back to (almost) even by savvy betting, and more than a little luck, in tripling-up with the UCSD-Michigan game (also known as the “Mile-high Michigan Middle”). 

Friday was a snoozer, but lessons were learned (never again on Penny Hardaway) while other past lessons about the “First Four” led to wins (Ole Miss over North Carolina and Illinois over Xavier). Favorites of more than two points went 10-4, so salvaging a 6-7 ATS day was the result of going against some trendy underdogs. 

Saturday (3-2) brought the second example of the market’s irrational hate of Purdue, the strangest decision that Rick Pitino made in St. John’s loss, how Matt lost the second of the “5 Games you have to get right to win your bracket pool”, biting the bullet on betting on Auburn, and why the BYU game became “personal.”

Sunday’s 4-1-1 results pushed THE WINDOW into profitability (19-18-1 ATS, +1.4 units) for the weekend, but a pair of curious Oregon coaching decisions jammed up the Ducks, and Derik Queen’s (trio of) buzzer-beating strides resulted in a popular result in THE WINDOW’s March Madness Survivor Contest. 

Plus, Matt’s already down on seven of the eight Sweet 16 games. Find out where he’s started a position for Thursday and Friday.

It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

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In a special, first-ever live THE WINDOW podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) went through all of the 32 NCAA Tournament games that were lined as The Selection Show was going on!

Aiming to get “The Panes” the best of the number to start their betting positions on the first round, Matt looked at each game, giving his projected spread, and where he thinks each line is going, along with the side he’s either bet or wants to bet.

Then, thanks to a viewer question, Matt discussed optimal bracket pool strategy and how you need to know WHO you’re competing with before you select you Tournament champion.

It’s all converted into podcast form!

It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

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On this week’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) discusses the first week of conference tournament games, and how handicapping becomes a fun game of “detective”, giving examples of how he’s found value in some bets, and how that value can get blown to irrelevancy with an outlier performance by a player or team. 

Then, Matt looks at Monday’s action with an audio version of the best bets for games in nine different conferences, including the championship games in the Sun Belt and Southern Conference (at 34:50).

It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

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On this week’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) discusses the Oscars and how if the Academy can get “art” right, maybe there’s hope for NFL Awards voters yet. 

Then Matt breaks down our college basketball learning exercise as we went from clueless to ready for March Madness, only we played a “micro” price after a Saturday bloodbath. Why the variance in basketball has gotten to the point where getting the best of the number is less valuable than it once was, because of how relatively few games are finishing around the number. 

Matt digs into how we expand outwards when it comes to handicapping the games in the conference tournaments, going from ShotQuality metrics to the statistical strengths and weaknesses he thinks matters when it comes to do-or-die elimination games. 

The show closes with a secret, podcast-only bet for Monday night in the ASUN and a trio of conference tournament futures to play. 

It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

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On this week’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) puts a bow on the 4 Nations Face-Off, and why he decided to write out some of his thoughts after Canada’s overtime win in a rare non-sports betting piece from THE WINDOW. 

Then, after two weeks of betting college basketball via “The Quicks,” Matt reflects on using bets to get invested in the sport before March, and what he’s learned about which teams are in contention for the national title and who’s not.

Finally, Matt breaks down why he’s made a bet on one team to win the Stanley Cup, in a secret, podcast-only futures bet. 

It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

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On this week’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) looks back at the first four games of the 4 Nations Face-off, and a Saturday night that was impossible to be ready for even if he’s lived it a few dozen times before (including when dudes were getting super creepy during the anthem in 2004), and the hope that there are many more high stakes Canada-USA matchups to come. 

Finally, Matt reflects on the first week of “The Quicks” - a high-volume approach to college basketball, which went 107-86-2, amounting to a football season’s worth of betting in just seven days of hoops.

Plus, we’ve got a relatively busy Monday, with more “secret” podcast-only plays.

It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

Subscribe for FREE to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mrussauthentic.substack.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for the rest of the bets in NFL, CFB, CBB, NHL and more.