RR The Wire 2130Z December 18, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 213018Z DEC 23

ICOD: 203018Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: SHIPPING COMPANIES CONTINUE TO HALT OPERATIONS IN RED SEA.

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-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni attacks on commercial shipping continue. So far, most of the major commercial shipping companies in the world have announced a cessation of operations in the Red Sea until further notice. The list includes the following container shipping companies: Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and Evergreen. 

This morning, most major oil tanker companies have also announced a halt to the transit of their oil tankers through the Red Sea. Among the list are: Euronav, British Petroleum (BP), Frontline Ltd.

In response to the recent escalation of targeting in the Red Sea, various nations have stepped up counter-piracy patrols in the region, in addition to providing missile defense for passing cargo vessels. This coalition of vessels includes the USS BATAAN ARG and the USS DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER CSG, along with varying support vessels. AC: These defensive tactics will probably not be effective in the long run, as Yemen’s success rate is comparatively high, considering the presence of Naval ships that have already been deployed in the Red Sea. If coalition forces were able to provide adequate defenses, all of the major shipping companies in the world would not be transferring to the longer route around Africa.

-Homefront-

USA: Japan’s largest steel company, Nippon Steel Corporation has agreed to purchase US Steel for $14 billion.

-Analyst Comments-

As expected, the situation in the Red Sea has rapidly become a global problem, not just a concern for trade between Asia and Europe. Oil companies ceasing operations has already had an immediate impact on petroleum prices (though perhaps not as much as it should, probably due to the heavily manipulated markets).

As a reminder, the political and governance situation in Yemen is a complex issue. As such, most media outlets have referred to the forces conducting these attacks as “Houthi rebels” or “Yemeni rebels”. This is due to the international hesitance to recognize Yemeni forces as the legitimate government. Houthi rebels conducted a military coup in 2015, seizing the capitol and overthrowing the government. Since then, Yemen has in effect been ruled by a military junta, which exercises control over most of the country. In short, the coup worked and the Houthis control Yemen, but most nations don’t want to recognize this, so the wording of reports is altered to not grant de facto recognition to this government. The government of Yemen that existed prior to 2015 has zero control over the nation, and since the coup, the “rebel” forces have been the most legitimate form of governance in Yemen.

Though seemingly a useless debate of semantics, this wording has legal implications for military action. If Yemeni forces are classified as “terrorists”, preexisting counterterrorism operations could be used to nest any combat operations under. Conversely, if the Houthis were recognized as the leader of a legitimate government, international sovereignty complications would likely arise.

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Analyst: S2A

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