S2 Underground

//The Wire//2200Z September 13, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TEPID ATMOSPHERICS REMAIN THROUGHOUT EUROPE AS U.S. EYES NEXT ESCALATION OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE. //

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Poland: This afternoon a diplomatic incident has mounted following remarks by Polish politicians following the conclusion of a brief state visit by US SECSTATE Blinken. Poland has hosted varying talks related to the Ukrainian War, with Polish leadership expressing support for allowing Ukraine to use increasingly more long-range munitions in attacks on Russia.

Russia: President Putin has weighed in on the possibility of the United States allowing the use of long-range precision munitions by Ukraine to strike Russia. Specifically, Putin has directly stated that allowing Ukraine to use munitions that could only function by using NATO support systems (such as being guided by NATO military satellites that Ukraine does not have access to) would be considered to be an attack by NATO itself.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Comments made by one or two Polish Members of the European Parliament hardly constitute the voice of an entire nation. However, this does indicate the level of dissension that is being expressed within some of the Western powers that are more heavily involved in the war. Some nations such as Germany, Poland, and the United Kingdom are approaching a crossroads regarding the next phase of the war. So far, the leadership of all western powers has indicated a preference for dragging out the war for as long as possible, and actively seeking to prevent peace talks (as has been a constant trend over the past year). This has been obvious to most for some time, however if elected officials are beginning to oppose the war more strongly (perhaps spurred on by the war in the Middle East), this could cause more serious internal tensions throughout many European nations.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 12, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HURRICANE FRANCINE MAKES LANDFALL. RESIGNATION OF NYPD COMMISSIONER REPORTEDLY PENDING. MAN SELF-IMMOLATES IN THE VICINITY OF ISRAELI CONSULATE IN BOSTON.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

Louisiana: Hurricane Francine made landfall last night as a Category 2 hurricane, before rapidly losing strength and becoming a tropical depression. As of this report over 340,000 customers remain without power due to localized flooding and storm damage.

New York: Local media reports that NYPD Commissioner Edward Caban is set to announce his resignation soon, amid the continuation of the federal corruption investigation.

Massachusetts: A man self-immolated in Boston last night in the vicinity of Park Plaza and Columbus Avenue. No details have been provided by authorities regarding the man’s condition, however he does appear to have survived the incident at the present moment, albeit with extremely severe burns.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The incident in Boston has received very little mainstream media attention, and therefore very few details remain certain. However, it’s possible that this situation has been influenced by deliberate misinformation efforts by mainstream media. Local media claims that the man set himself on fire outside the Four Seasons hotel. This is technically correct. However, across the street from the hotel is a small Israeli diplomatic station, the Boston Consulate for Israel. Considering this proximity, and the very high income nature of the area (in which these graphic incidents are rare) it’s very likely that this was yet another horrific act of protest against Israel. The Saunders Building (across the street from where the incident occurred) has been the site of other protests against Israel as well, having been identified as the location for the diplomatic station many months ago by demonstrators.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2230Z September 11, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: US SENDS ANOTHER AID PACKAGE TO UKRAINE. INDIA/CHINA BORDER DISPUTE CONTINUES. //

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Southern Asia: Border tensions between India and China have begun to slightly escalate again as China has increased their presence in the highly-contested Arunachal Pradesh region. Monday afternoon, a local news outlet published photos indicating the presence of a previous Chinese encampment in the region, along with local HUMINT that suggests other PLA encampments becoming more common throughout the region over the past few months. AC: Details are hard to confirm, but the reason this may increase tensions is due to the location itself. Allegedly, graffiti and PLA ration pack wrappers were found almost 40 miles across the border, deep inside the contested region. India and China have been squabbling over this region for many years, along with other border disputes that go back decades. However, if PLA troops are patrolling this deep over the border, these increasing border incursions could be yet another point for worsening relations between nations that are already very adversarial.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – This afternoon the State Department announced another aid package for Ukraine, totaling $717 million. This comes as SECSTATE Blinken states that Russia has received ballistic missiles from Iran for use in Ukraine.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Considering the continuing trend of escalations within the Ukrainian War, the next very likely step would be for the United States to allow for even fewer restrictions on the use of American-made weapons by Ukraine. Both sides have increasingly begun slipping their gloves off slowly as the two years of stagnation have given way to increased efforts by both sides to return to a war of motion or in some way change the dynamic of how the war has gone so far. If Ukraine begins to lash out at Moscow even more deliberately than they have already, Russia will respond in kind. Likewise, as Russian gains are made on the Eastern Front, and Ukraine’s foray into Kursk remains relatively stagnant, Ukraine will without question take advantage of all of the technology the United States gives them. For both Zelensky and Putin winning at all costs is the goal. Which, considering the imbalance between the two nations, is undoubtedly resulting in more devastation for one party than the other. Escalating a war to include more civilian targets, more long-range attacks on civilian centers, more attacks on oil fields, or generally moving towards a state of Total War, is very unwise to encourage when these last-ditch efforts are not only unlikely to result in any meaningful change, but also decreasing the chances for a favorable peace deal at a later time.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z September 10, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: UKRAINE CONTINUES LONG-RANGE ATTACKS ON RUSSIA. U.K. PARLIAMENT VOTES AGAINST MEASURE TO STOP THE AXING OF WINTER FUEL PAYMENT. SEARCH FOR INTERSTATE GUNMAN IN KENTUCKY CONTINUES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Russia: Ukraine conducted another significant drone attack on Moscow, resulting in the death of one woman. Russia claims to have downed 144 drones in varying regions of Russia overnight. AC: This continues the increase in long-range attacks by Ukraine, as their options have become limited by their own advance in Kursk. Over the past few months and weeks, the attacks carried out by Ukraine on obviously civilian structures (such as residential apartment buildings), have also become more common.

United Kingdom: This afternoon, a snap vote in the House of Commons resulted in a majority of MPs voting to cut this year’s Winter Fuel Payment for most of the country, as part of budgetary constraints. As of this vote, the cuts to this program will go ahead.

-HomeFront-

Kentucky: The search for interstate shooting suspect Joseph Couch continues in the vicinity of Exit 49 of I-75. Schools remain closed and local authorities continue to urge locals to remain vigilant. At least three of the victims remain in critical condition as a result of the attack.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As the search area for Joseph Couch is located in extremely rugged and remote terrain, significant challenges remain in locating him. Additionally, some details released by authorities indicate that he had initially planned to conduct the attack, then take his own life. If he did follow through on the final part of his plan, locating his body will be very difficult and might not happen anytime soon. Aerial assets are not particularly helpful in locating a single person through extremely thick overhead canopy, and in rugged terrain require being almost directly over the target. Thermal imaging is helpful to a degree, but also not as helpful as one might imagine in thick vegetation, or in situations where the target is no longer producing a heat signature. Local media is highlighting Couch’s prior military service as a means of insinuating that he is a Rambo-like figure. However, considering the likely domestic incident that led up to this attack, it’s not likely that Couch has made preparations for evading capture in the long term.

In the United Kingdom, though a foreign concept for Americans, the Winter Fuel Payment is a well-known governmental benefit relied upon by British pensioners (retirees) as a means of helping elderly citizens with winter heating costs. As energy costs in the U.K. are known to be a major concern for low-income elderly citizens, this benefit is a big deal throughout the British Isles and has become even more critical due to the extreme costs of energy that have fallen upon the European continent due to the Ukrainian War. 

As such, any effort to restrict this benefit is usually the end of one’s political career due to this benefit being a critical part of British culture; historically, this is simply not a benefit to trifle with politically, as far as citizens are concerned. However, over the past few months of PM Starmer’s government, this benefit has been on the chopping block almost in its entirety, with only a handful of people remaining eligible for the benefit as of this year. This afternoon, Conservative MPs attempted to call a vote to halt the axing of this program, a vote which failed 348 to 228. As this vote was not even close, plans to cut this benefit for most people probably will go ahead. Labour MPs are probably riding on the recent pay raise given to the state pension program to help lessen the blow, however these complexities are unlikely to matter much to the average taxpayer. More broadly, this is yet another major milestone in Britain’s rough

//The Wire//2200Z September 9, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: MANHUNT UNDERWAY IN KENTUCKY FOLLOWING INTERSTATE HIGHWAY AMBUSH. TDA MEMBERS PREVIOUSLY ARRESTED IN COLORADO FREED ON BAIL.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

Kentucky: A manhunt is underway following a shooting that took place on I-75 in Laurel County. Saturday evening a man lying in ambush conducted a small arms attack on random vehicles passing by on the interstate in the vicinity of Exit 49. 5x people were wounded in the attack, and most local schools have canceled classes as the manhunt continues. Authorities have identified the suspect as Joseph Couch, and recovered a weapon and vehicle shortly after the shootings were reported. AC: Text messages sent to a female contact by the shooter before the incident indicate that, while the shooter did plan the attack to some degree, this may have been a mental health/domestic incident rather than a more calculated terror attack. Nevertheless, local authorities have stated the suspect is armed and dangerous, and hiding out in the vicinity of the ambush site in extremely rugged terrain.

Colorado: Two of the four mid-level TdA “shot callers” that were arrested last week, have been freed on bail. Both of the Perez brothers posted $1,000 bail and are no longer in custody, despite still being in the Untied States illegally, and both originally being arrested for attempted murder.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As the catch-and-release of extremely High Value Individuals (HVIs) affiliated with organized crime becomes more common, it’s likely that local TdA (and other gangs) will become emboldened, as has happened for years in most major American cities. This also signals to the American taxpayer that the justice system is not only not serious about the TdA issues in Colorado, but also not interested in even pretending to care. Arresting a few shot callers and declaring victory over crime would have been expected even just a few years ago, but the local judicial system (along with federal law enforcement) letting these men go free on such low bail (while facing capital charges, and both obviously being extreme flight risks) is very telling.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 6, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: AMERICAN KILLED BY IDF SNIPER IN WEST BANK. TDA MEMBERS ARRESTED IN COLORADO.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Diplomatic tensions have arisen as a result of Israeli forces killing an American citizen in the West Bank via sniper fire. The White House has voiced concern regarding the attack, which has focused attention on the use of lethal force against unarmed protesters, as well as the reasoning behind Israeli operations in the West Bank at large.

-HomeFront-

Colorado: Several arrests have been made of Tren de Aragua (TdA) members in the Aurora/Denver area. The Perez brothers, and the Pacheco-Chirinos brothers have been arrested following an increased spotlight on TdA activity in the area.

USA: This morning the Social Security Administration experienced a nationwide IT outage, with all field offices being closed for in-person services due to impacts to computer systems. The nature of the outage has not been disclosed, however most SSA online services appear to be offline for the time being.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: All four of the TdA members that were arrested in Colorado are mid-level leadership for TdA, and were deliberately released into the United States by ICE after entering the U.S. illegally at the southern border. The removal of key leadership in Aurora can impact TdA operations in the short term, however it’s not clear as to how seriously this will change the situation in the long term.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 5, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TENSIONS CONTINUE TO ESCALATE IN SOMALIA. NYPD COMMISSIONER RAIDED BY FBI. SWEDISH FOREIGN MINISTER RESIGNS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

France: The fire that destroyed a large historic cathedral in Saint-Omer has been confirmed to be arson, with the assailant being arrested shortly after the fire broke out. Yesterday authorities identified the arsonist as Joël Vigoureux, an infamous far-left, anti-Christian arsonist with an extensive criminal record. He has been convicted 25 times, with 8 convictions specifically for setting fire to Christian churches.

Sweden: Foreign Minister Tobias Billström unexpectedly announced his resignation yesterday. AC: Billström had been a key figure in Sweden becoming a NATO member, which was finalized back in March after many months of consternation and hold-ups from other NATO members.

Red Sea/HOA: Limited reporting on social media indicates the deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and Egypt, via their respective proxies Somaliland and Somalia. Continuing the trend of escalating tensions in the region, Ethiopia has reportedly begun the staging of troops and equipment at the border of Somalia. AC: This is likely in response to Egypt announcing large-scale military exercises within Somalia. Egypt has deployed thousands of soldiers to take part in training exercises in Somalia, further strengthening ties with Mogadishu, in addition to diplomatically insulting Ethiopia, who also has thousands of soldiers deployed in a peacekeeping role in Somalia.

-HomeFront-

New York: This morning, eco-activists and pro-Palestine activists protested outside the headquarters of Citibank in NYC. Most demonstrators were arrested after blocking the main entrance to the facility.

In Queens, the residence of the NYPD Commissioner was raided by the FBI this afternoon. Commissioner Caban’s other residence in Hamilton Heights was also raided at the same time. AC: The reason for the raids has not been publicly disclosed, however it’s probably linked to the FBI targeting of various New York officials under the larger umbrella of anti-corruption and/or campaign finance violations. Some sources claim that the raid on the Commissioner is not linked to NYC Mayor Eric Adams’ corruption probe, however very few details remain public regarding these latest raids.

Ohio: This afternoon a large fire broke out at a chemical manufacturing plant in Akron. A fire was reported at the SMB International chemical factory on Rosemary Blvd, which produces and packages chemicals such as propane and methanol. District Fire Chief Sierjie Lash instituted a half-mile evacuation zone this afternoon, as this facility is completely surrounded by densely-packed residential neighborhoods, Section 8 housing, and the city airport.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Both Egypt and Ethiopia are probably conducting mirroring military exercises as a posturing gesture. However the potential for this to deteriorate into a legitimate war is very high, considering the vitriol displayed by all parties for the past couple of years.

If the situation comes to a head and Ethiopia is planning some sort of ground offensive within Somalia, this could be challenging for many reasons. Firstly, Ethiopia has already had a significant military presence within the failed-state of Somalia for some time. Egypt also is also likely to feel the strain of being spread too thin, along with the obvious conflict on their own border with Gaza. Egypt seeking out a conflict thousands of miles from home, when Israeli forces have permanently occupied the Philidelphi Corridor, is very telling as to where Egyptian priorities lie. For Ethiopia, the next major milestone to watch out for would be for Ethiopia to recognize Somaliland as an independent state. If this happens, it’s likely to serve as a catalyst for a subs

//The Wire//2200Z September 4, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: STABBING ATTACK OCCURS IN GERMANY. MANY HIGH-RANKING OFFICIALS RESIGN IN UKRAINE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Germany: This morning a stabbing attack occurred in Bonn, resulting in the wounding of two people. Authorities shot and killed the attacker during the incident.

Middle East: Conflict continues in the West Bank as Israeli operations meet resistance in some cities. Israeli operations have slowly increased over the past few weeks as Israeli forces greatly expand clearance operations throughout the West Bank.

Ukraine: The war remains intense as Russian and Ukrainian forces conduct long-range missile and drone attacks deep behind each other’s lines.

Of note, several high-ranking Ukrainian governmental officials have resigned. So far, the resignations include the Foreign Minister, Justice Minister, Strategic Industries Minister, Environmental Protection Minister, a Deputy Prime Minister, a Vice Prime Minister, and the Head of the State Property Fund. Other high-level officials have been outright dismissed, such as the Deputy Head of the Office of the President. Most of the President’s Cabinet has also changed over, with members transitioning to other roles.

-HomeFront-

Oregon: Paul Harrell, the legendary firearms expert and weapons education advocate, passed away last night. Paul had been diagnosed with cancer last year, and despite the illness being caught early, Paul’s time as a bedrock of knowledge was tragically cut short. His brother Roy and his manager Brad plan to continue Paul’s work, and ensure his legacy is remembered by all for years to come.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In war, several high-ranking officials resigning all on the same day, at the height of a major military campaign, is not typically a good sign. Ukrainian sources have claimed that these resignations and firings are simply a “restructuring”, however much uncertainty abounds due to the sheer number of vacant positions and personnel shifts that have occurred within such a short period of time. This “restructuring” also highlights the fact that Zelensky himself is technically unelected at this point as his own term of office ended in May, with him only remaining in power due to his own  declaration of martial law and thus the cessation of elections.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z September 3, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES TO ESCALATE IN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE. USS WASP SCHEDULED TO DEPART TURKEY ASAP. CONCERNS GROW REGARDING TDA MILITANTS SPREADING INFLUENCE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Russia: Conflict continues to escalate as both Russia and Ukraine ramp up efforts to return to a war of motion once again. Russia has claimed to have downed hundreds of Ukrainian drones in Russian airspace over the past few days, as Ukraine continues to attempt long-range attacks against targets deep inside Russia, to include Moscow. Russia has responded in kind with cruise missile strikes on many targets deep inside Ukraine. Russia continues to push westward in the Donetsk region, as front lines that haven’t moved in months suddenly become more dynamic. The Ukrainian advance into Kursk continues, but has largely slowed as Russian forces have focused on containment instead of a brute-force, large-scale counterattack. AC: Ukraine (led by their American advisors) undoubtedly launched the Kursk offensive with the goal of pulling Russian troops from other fronts, and tying them down defending their own homeland. It’s possible that Russia is focusing on turning the tables and doing the exact same thing to Ukraine…Ukrainian forces are now bogged down in Kursk, and can’t reinforce the collapsing lines on the eastern front. Only time will tell how effective either party will be, as both sides are making large strategic gambles in their responses to the events in Kursk.

Turkey: US 6th Fleet confirmed yesterday’s incident involving several US Marines in Izmir. Local Turkish authorities also claim that the assailants have been arrested, though no independent verification of this is possible. The situation regarding the USS Wasp herself remains tenuous as thousands of protesters continue to protest outside the pier where the Wasp remains berthed. The Wasp has canceled all liberty for sailors and the embarked Marines, and is intending to get underway and depart Turkey as soon as possible.

-HomeFront-

Illinois: Overnight in Chicago, police radio traffic was intercepted by scanner watchers indicating a possible apartment takeover by Venezuelans. The apartment complex noted in the call is a Section 8 housing project on South King Drive. AC: Details are very sketchy regarding this incident. It must be stressed that the police radio traffic was a standard message from dispatch noting what a 911 caller stated in their complaint, so this information is not originating from LE sources. However, reports of large crowds of armed males are not entirely uncommon to the area, which is host to exceptionally high levels of crime. No further radio traffic from dispatch indicated the veracity of the original report, or if officers even responded to the call. However if a genuine incident was developing, other means of internal LE communications could have been used to prevent the interception of radio traffic.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As the situation regarding TdA in Colorado continues, many areas around the country are on edge regarding the potential for TdA (or even more notorious groups) to conduct similar takeover operations in their areas, and beginning to set up strongholds in smaller cities around the United States. Like it or not, Colorado officials, and authorities in Denver and Aurora have given criminal syndicates not just the keys to the castle, but the recipes for success around the country as well. Now, even low-level criminals around the country know that they can probably be successful in their own areas, at least in locations where the rule of law is only selectively applied to citizens, with local authorities leaving migrant populations largely to their own devices. The power vacuums that have been created in the past 6 months alone are likely to result in even haphazardly-organized gangs having

 00:00 - Northeast Region 
05:10 - Western Region 
12:25 - United Kingdom 
14:49 - Middle East 
16:36 - Red Sea/HOA Region 
20:20 -GhostNet Reports 

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