S2 Underground

//The Wire//2300Z September 30, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: ATTEMPTED HIJACKING OF COMMERCIAL AIRLINER HALTED IN MIDDLE EAST, PILOT SEVERELY WOUNDED DURING ATTACK. SMOKE PLUMES OBSERVED AT MAJOR SAUDI OIL PROCESSING FACILITY. UNITED STATES ANNOUNCES FORMAL WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ. IRANIAN ATTACKS ON SHIPPING CONTINUE IN HORMUZ STRAIT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

 
 -International Events-

Middle East: Overnight a possible hijacking incident was reported onboard a FlyDubai aircraft. At 0653 local time, Flight FZ1073 departed Dubai International Airport, bound for Tel Aviv. Approximately 136 minutes into the flight, the transponder data indicates the aircraft conducted a very sharp nosedive, losing over 14,000 feet of altitude in 37 seconds. Within the aircraft, reports indicate that the copilot stabbed the pilot multiple times, and attempted to deliberately crash the aircraft. After the initial nosedive, the wounded Captain was able to open the cockpit door, allowing passengers and cabin crew to subdue the copilot. Over a period of six seconds, a passenger was able to recover from the dive, banking hard to the north. Two off-duty FlyDubai pilots who were passengers on the flight regained control off the aircraft, and twenty minutes after the incident, the aircraft turned around over Jordanian airspace and diverted to Prince Sultan International Airport in Tabuk. The aircraft landed safely despite the sharp decent causing a significant portion of the rudder to break off.

Analyst Comment: If these details are true, this incident was host to multiple aspects which are nothing short of miraculous. Based on the rate of decent, the aircraft was approximately 27 seconds from hitting the ground before a passenger was reportedly able to pull up on the yoke and recover the aircraft from the dive. The presence of two other pilots onboard the aircraft is also itself remarkable, as if the copilot was the terrorist, and the lead pilot was stabbed, there was no one left to fly the aircraft except the passengers in the back. 

Nearly all details are known via video recordings from passengers onboard the aircraft, but the exact nature of what took place inside the cockpit (and when) is not confirmed yet. Videos from within the cabin indicate both the pilot and copilot were severely wounded during the fight, and the status of both is not known. The nationalities of all involved are also important due to the current tensions around the region. Most of the passengers were Israeli citizens traveling back to Tel Aviv. The pilot (who was stabbed) is Indian, and the alleged terrorist copilot is Omani.

Iraq: This morning, the Pentagon announced the completion of the withdrawal of the last troops from Erbil Airbase, marking the official end of Operation INHERENT RESOLVE in Iraq. Officially, the only American military personnel within Iraq are located at the American Embassy in Baghdad, with the diplomatic mission being the only officially recognized deployment location at this time.

Analyst Comment: While the ending of a 23 year war is significant and worthy of further reflection, in the more immediate short term, the abandonment of the Erbil Airbase confirms prior reporting that the Patriot battery had been relocated from this facility weeks ago. The withdrawal from this critical air defense sector will probably affect American bases in Jordan, if Iranian missile launches continue.

Persian Gulf: This morning the UKMTO released a batch of "time late" reports, confirming that a total of three merchant vessels were struck by Iranian cruise missiles while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz over the past few days. Due to the delay in reporting these strikes, it is not clear when they took place, however several Iranians reported witnessing missile launches from Sirik yesterday.

Iran: Civil defense preparations continue to expand in size and scope. The week of October 26 - November 2 has been designated Civil Defense Week nationwide, with various drills and exercises being planned among the civilian populace to prepare for three different scenarios: Normal natural disaster emergencies, a state of ceasefire, or a full-scale war. IRGC-affiliated social media accounts have also claimed that military units in southern Iran have been issued Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear (CBRN) protective equipment, such as gas masks and decontamination kits.

Analyst Comment: These reports are sporadic at best, and the photos from one soldier on social media are not exactly indicative of what the entire 600,000-man army is doing. However, the Iranians are not taking any chances an very clearly expect and escalation of attacks, possibly to include the use of more serious weapons.

Saudi Arabia: This morning an incident was reported at ARAMCO's North Ghawar processing facility, with locals on the ground observing a large smoke plume emitting from the installation. No official statements have disclosed what happened, but no missile/drone warnings were noted by locals.

Analyst Comment: This may or may not be the result of a drone strike; it could be the result of an industrial accident or exceptionally abnormal gas flaring. The Abqaiq processing plant at this facility is a major complex, and critically important as it's the start point for the East-West Pipeline (the other end being the terminals at Yanbu). By now, the pipeline should be functional to some degree, pumping an unknown amount of oil to the terminals on the Red Sea, but if this was an unplanned event of some kind, it might be slow going to get this pipeline fully back online.

Syria: This afternoon, a major explosion was reported at a natural gas pipeline near the Tishreen Power Plant in Damascus. The resulting fire burned throughout the evening, and the power plant was shut down. The cause of the blast has not yet been publicly released.

Analyst Comment: This follows yesterday's pipeline attack in southern Syria, which was directly confirmed to be sabotage. It's not clear as to if this pipeline explosion was sabotage, but at this point malign action is likely. Various insurgent groups within Syria have been hitting gas pipelines for weeks now, but no one group has claimed responsibility for these strikes yet.

India: Overnight a major explosion was reported at the MRPL refinery in Mangaluru. One worker was killed and several others injured after a rupture occurred in a high-pressure tank at the Coker Hydrotreater Unit. At the time of the explosion, this refinery was already operating at peak capacity, to refine and process as much crude as physically possible at the site.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Within the United Kingdom, more questions than answers remain concerning two incidents which have captured media attention for the past few days. At RAF Fairford, not many details have come to light that can be corroborated with much reliability. The US continues to claim that this was a major terror attack that the US was involved in tracking, while British authorities claim that no explosives were found in the vehicles and the contents turned out to be drums of gasoline. However, this morning British authorities radically shifted their position, with PM Burnham stating that there are "strong indications that Iran played a part" in the incident. Despite these claims, all of the assailants are still free from detention.

In Rotherham, almost zero details have been released regarding yesterday's explosive incident. The individual who was killed has not been identified, but authorities have stated that the incident was the result of a "household accident", without providing any further amplifying information. Due to the sheer lack of information, speculation has run rampant, but nothing is verifiable yet. Considering the very odd circumstances of this incident, more scrutiny on this case would be worthwhile, especially considering the heightened terrorism concerns around the continent.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2000Z September 29, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: GAS PIPELINE IN SYRIA SABOTAGED. GLOBAL FUEL CRISIS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN SEVERITY. ESTONIA FORMALLY ACCUSES RUSSIA OF LAST MONTH'S SABOTAGE ATTACK IN TALLINN. FBI CO-DEPUTY DIRECTOR RESIGNS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

 
 -International Events-

Estonia: This morning federal authorities officially released the results of the investigation into an arson attack that was conducted at the Milrem Robotics factory in Tallinn last month. The Estonian Internal Security Service stated that this attack was an act of sabotage conducted by Russian Security Services.

Syria: Overnight a major natural gas pipeline was sabotaged near Deir Al-Zour. Local officials state that explosives were used to damage an isolation valve along the pipeline, which resulted in a fire that lasted throughout the night. As of this morning, the fire is out, but the pipeline is still offline.

United Kingdom: This morning an explosion was reported in Rotherham, which resulted in the death of one individual. The victim has not yet been identified, and the cause of the explosion has not been disclosed. No further details have been provided by authorities, other than statements claiming that there is no further threat to the public.

Analyst Comment: Eyewitnesses report that this was a very significant blast that resulted in the dismemberment of the deceased individual. This is a major red flag worthy of further investigation. In residential areas, there are very few accidental situations which would result in the body parts of a victim being recovered down the street, so the possibility of malign action must be considered. Also of note, the gas utility (Cadent Gas) issued a statement confirming that whatever it was, it was not the result of a gas explosion.

-HomeFront-

USA: Around the nation, the fuel crisis continues to deteriorate, with multiple states enacting emergency measures to ease high costs. In Georgia, a state of emergency was declared yesterday, suspending the gas tax for 30 days, and bringing down prices by about 37 cents per gallon. Texas also declared a state of emergency this morning due to the fuel crisis, lifting the restrictions on the use of red diesel in on-highway vehicles, as well as to increase the allowable weight limits for trucks carrying fuel or agricultural products.

Washington D.C. - Andrew Bailey, the co-Deputy Director of the FBI resigned last night. Bailey cited family reasons for his departure from his position, which was set up by Dan Bongino before he departed the other half of the "co-deputy" position last December.

Within the Pentagon, officials have confirmed that a major data breach from months ago resulted in the leak of millions of service members' personal information via an unencrypted file sharing system. The Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) initially noticed malign activity on July 16, and on September 18th issued a data breach notice. This morning the DMDC confirmed that the vulnerability has been open since October of 2025, and the records of roughly 3-4 million people were accessed by malign actors.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Within the Middle East, Iranian strikes on merchant shipping continued overnight, with at least one vessel being struck in the Strait of Hormuz. Otherwise, indications and warnings are growing down south suggesting that an intensification of the fighting with the Houthis may be on the verge of escalating. Various meetings have taken place between Gulf states over the past few weeks to examine the Houthi problem, and as of this morning reports are circulating suggesting several Gulf states may be forming a coalition to wage war against the Houthis in Yemen. On the ground, the situation in Yemen does support this possibility. Saudi Arabia has been staging forces in the southern regions along the border with Yemen for weeks, and several other Gulf states have been making preparations for a further expansion of the war in Yemen. 

As far as the United States becoming involved, American involvement is still on the table following the attack plans that were in place two weeks ago (but were called off at the last minute). Nothing has changed in terms of American readiness in the region, and forces are still more or less in the same spot as before, with the chief concerns being the lack of sufficient stocks of interceptor missiles, and a shortage of bombs needed to wage a wider campaign. Whatever the Gulf states plan to carry out, most throughout the region seem to think that the campaign against the Houthis will begin in a few days.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 28, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: QUESTIONS REMAIN AS THE EXACT DETAILS AND MOTIVE OF THE INCIDENT AT RAF FAIRFORD REMAIN UNKNOWN. MAJOR DRONE STRIKES REPORTED IN UKRAINE. WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST REMAINS CONSTANT WITH LITTLE PROGRESS MADE ON THE DIPLOMATIC FRONT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

 
 -International Events-

Ukraine: Substantial strikes on Kiev have continued over the past few days, with Russian munitions impacting several government facilities within the capital city. The Dobrobut Medical Center was struck this morning, and the main building continued to burn throughout this afternoon. Several gas stations around the city were also hit, along with various governmental agencies and scientific research facilities. In the far western districts of Ukraine, another Russian drone strike was reported in close proximity to a border crossing with Poland, with eyewitnesses at the checkpoint visually observing the impact.

Middle East: The situation remains much the same as before, with various rhetoric surrounding diplomatic efforts remaining steady. So far, nothing concrete has emerged from either side regarding whatever indirect talks or messages might be getting conveyed. More tactically, fighting has continued within the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian forces continuing strikes on merchant convoys attempting to exit the Gulf. Over the weekend, American efforts to get larger convoys through the Strait increased, along with Iranian attempts to strike these ships. Several cruise missile launches were noted by locals, though it is not clear as to if any vessels were struck.

United Kingdom: Questions remain following the incident at RAF Fairford, with very little information being conveyed to the public throughout the day. The suspects have not been identified publicly, and the general situation of what took place is not fully clear. Counterterrorism police have stated that the five suspects that were arrested, have been granted bail and released from detention while the investigation continues. Unconfirmed reports also suggest that forensic analysis of the materials found in the vans outside the airbase did not contain explosives, but this has not yet been confirmed via official statements.

Furthermore, President Trump made statements this morning implying that this was a real terror attack, though he did not state whether or not he received this information from official British channels or from his inner circle. British authorities have stated that the reason for the discovery of the suspects was due to the actions of a concerned citizen, and that these individuals were not rolled up as part of trigger-based criteria, or an ongoing surveillance effort. This afternoon, other reports from locals emerged claiming that they were warned about the potential for attacks on the base in the days leading up to the incident.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: So far, an intense amount of sheer insanity has hit the timeline regarding the RAF Fairford saga, which is largely the result of the sheer lack of information and the confusing nature of what actually happened. On the one hand, some governmental sources claim that an attack was foiled by the farmer who found the individuals, but other sources claim that intelligence agencies were watching these suspects for some time. Clearly, discrepancies in the official story exist, and an objective approach is still called for to determine what is really happening...because this might not be over just yet.

Based on what little evidence is in the public eye, there are a few possible explanations for what happened:

Theory 1- A genuine terror attack was foiled by a prepared citizen before it could get underway.
 Theory 2 - That this was a false-flag attack that was not actually a genuine threat.
 Theory 3 - A band of diesel thieves got caught transferring fuel between themselves on a back road, and the farmer who caught them immediately thought it was a terror attack.
 Theory 4 - That RAF Fairford has been expecting a terror attack since being publicly threatened by Iran weeks ago, and a band of fuel thieves being caught this close to the base triggered all counterterrorism responses and caused everyone to jump the gun, while the real threat still remains.

As it stands, determining exactly which theory bears more weight is challenging, but as noted this morning, there are a lot of data points that don't make sense if this were a terror attack. Likewise, the "fuel theft" theory might not be correct either, but this theory certainly cannot be dismissed and most of the evidence does support this theory. Also, there is a history of thieves stealing fuel specifically from American bases in Europe, with a major fuel theft ring being busted in Romania five years ago. Similarly, diesel prices today in the U.K. reached a historical record, reaching more than 199.18p/liter (roughly the equivalence of $10 American per gallon). This is merely tangential to the exact incident at Fairford, but it is important to know in a broader sense.

The release of the assailants on bail is not really an indicator of much either, as the British government probably would release legitimate terrorists and diesel thieves alike. Another non-helpful detail is the list of charges themselves. All five men were arrested under suspicion of Offenses under the Explosives Act, as well as Section 5 of the Terrorism Act of 2006. Both laws are catch-all legal codes, and the terms by which both laws are applied are extremely broad, so being held (without charge) under these laws is not entirely proof of much without amplifying information.

To balance out all factors by examining one detail which does NOT directly support the diesel theft theory, locals report that RAF Fairford was actually at a higher Force Protection (FPCON) level than normal this week. Though the exact timeline is critically important (but not confirmed yet), the base was allegedly at a heightened state of alert before the incident involving the three vans. Daring to go out on a limb to interpret this data point, it's possible that the base was quietly preparing for a terror attack, and some idiots stealing fuel just let the cat out of the bag regarding what the base had secretly being preparing for. It's possible that the base responded to this threat, thinking it was "the one" but in reality it was something unrelated. Two things can be true at the same time; the base could have been expecting a major attack, and jumped the gun on some idiots with fuel cans. The off-the-cuff statements by President Trump also support this eventuality; maybe he thought that this was indeed the attack that had been expected, and jumped the gun himself based on media reports.

This leads into the real danger with events like this: If this was not a genuine terror attack, but instead just some rather brazen thieves, any actual terrorist group that's out there just went underground and are hardening their security practices. Due to the internet getting spun up over this incident, real terrorists have learned quite a bit and they also now know just how primed society is for a real attack. Likewise, any activist groups now know that they will get their own bright and shiny news helicopter to photograph their propaganda banners, if they were to try another breach of an RAF facility, like the Palestine Action group has been known to do.

At the end of the day, the truth of what actually happened is the only thing that matters, because truth helps us to determine where future risks may lie. If this was a deliberate terror attack, a certain course of action would be indicated. If this was NOT a terror attack, a different course of action would be a better fit, because other terrorists are probably out there waiting. In the early hours after what seems like a major incident like this, no one can be blamed for making decisions out of an abundance of caution. In most cases, it is wise to over-assess the threat during the heat of the moment, and then walk back the assessment to more reasonable ground once the fog of war clears and more information becomes available. In this case, the only thing worse than catching a group of terrorists, is not catching a group of terrorists, who can then learn from the situation and alter their attack plans accordingly. With tensions palpably high throughout the continent, it would make perfect sense for this type of overreaction to take place.

The United Kingdom is currently facing many serious disasters. From the importation of millions of people who seek to cause harm, to the aging military infrastructure that has been unable to keep up with modern war in the homeland, the U.K. certainly has problems. Like most western nations at this point, public trust in government is also at an all-time low and the British government specifically has a long track record of covering up incidents like this, which might cast decision makers in a bad light. Whatever the truth is, it will eventually come out one way or another. Clearly, if the US is increasing FPCON levels at overseas bases (levels which have varied over the past few months) a genuine attack is expected. Focusing on idiots stealing fuel could be a distraction from a real attack, which could strike at any time. Constant vigilance is recommended as more generally, the western world has been primed for terror attacks for some time. The hard part is knowing which incidents are genuine, and which events are not what they seem.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1300Z September 28, 2026//
 //PRIORITY//
 //BLUF: INCIDENT REPORTED AT RAF FAIRFORD AS MULTIPLE MEN ARRESTED IN MULTIPLE VEHICLES NEAR THE AIRBASE PERIMETER.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

 
 -International Events-

United Kingdom: Yesterday a possible terror attack was foiled at Fairford Airbase, after a group of men were discovered acting suspiciously in the vicinity of the base. Local authorities state that a local farmer visually observed three vans parked in the roadway just outside the base. When the farmer approached the vehicles blocking the road, a group of masked men fled from the scene. After the alarm was raised, authorities responded and a total of five men were detained after being found hiding in the woods near the van site. A search of their vans revealed large containers of hazardous material, which prompted a mass evacuation of the local area. A total of 85x homes were evacuated for several hours while EOD personnel examined the contents of the vans, with residents being allowed to return to their homes last night. All five suspects have been detained, and government officials have declined to officially attribute motive.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As this is a developing situation, many of the details as presented to the public either are not clear, or do not make much sense in terms of what attack might have been planned. Right now, the finger is being pointed at Iran for this incident for obvious reasons, however before attribution can be laid on any group or nation, the basic facts of the case must be ironed out. Government officials and media groups are insinuating that this was a Vehicle Borne IED (VBIED) attack that was foiled before it could materialize. Other claims are being made suggesting that this incident is not terrorism...but rather a group of thieves who were trying to steal diesel from the farm that they were discovered at. Examining the Most Deadly theory first, if it was a VBIED attack, it would be one of the most unorthodox VBIED attacks in history, for many different reasons.

First of all, multiple people being located in each vehicle is odd; these types of attacks almost never result in multiple attackers being located in the same vehicle...it's almost always just one person inside the VBIED. If multiple people are to take part in an attack, it would have made more sense for the additional personnel to travel to the site in separate vehicles, to conduct a more complex attack (such as the infamous Bataclan attack back in 2015). In this case however, local authorities have not stated whether or not any small arms were found inside the vehicles, and no ideological material (such as flags, banners, or other paraphernalia) was found either.

Additionally, the local farmer who claims to have been the original source for visually observing these individuals stated that she initially became suspicious after these men were seen wearing hoods and masks. If this observation is true (and it probably is), this is another detail that does not make sense. VBIED attacks are usually a one-way trip, and therefore the attackers aren't normally concerned with keeping their identity a secret. On the contrary, they usually want to be known publicly as martyrs, so wearing masks goes against nearly all other similar attacks.

Furthermore, the attackers were spotted by the farmer blocking the roadway, and fled from the scene on foot after the farmer drove up on them. This is once again another clue that something is amiss. Normally, once a terrorist begins moving into the final stages of their attack and starts maneuvering to the attack site, a series of events is in place that would be difficult to stop. Once they've committed to the attack, violence from authorities is usually the only thing that can stop an attack at that point. Following the narrative as presented, five very physically fit Military Aged Males spent months planning an attack, had obtained three vehicles packed with explosives, had arrived at the attack site, and were preparing the attack...but were shooed away by an unarmed British lady right as they were about to detonate. This framing makes absolutely zero sense unless the story as presented is missing large and very critical details.

Another discrepancy is the exact location of where the vehicles were discovered blocking the road. The farmer who made the discovery found these men and their vehicles at a junction on Horcott Road, a quiet English lane just to the east of the base itself. This road is nowhere near a main entrance to the facility. Speculating a bit (and following the VBIED theory), it is possible that the attackers intended to attack the perimeter fence itself, and not a main gate. Right at the junction where the vehicles were parked is a farm which features a small path that leads somewhat close to the perimeter fence itself. However, based on the satellite imagery (which the attackers surely would have had) this is a rather poor attack site. There is no High-Speed Avenue of Approach, and even if they detonated their cargo right where they were sitting, it's not very likely that any military aircraft at the base would have been damaged (although a LOT of citizens would have been killed). There are several other points where the attackers could have breached the perimeter, including one site that is directly on a main road, easily accessible, and offered absolutely zero resistance to a vehicle ramming through the flimsy fence to drive directly onto the runway itself. If the attackers were dedicated enough to fill three vans with explosives in an attempt to carry out one of the most substantial IED attacks in British history...they would have had to drive past one of the most devastatingly vulnerable parts of the base, to pick a far less effective target. Now that the jig is up and base security is heightened, there is no risk to pointing out this glaring vulnerability, because base security have parked heavy vehicles near all of the gates that are easy to ram through. This indicates that the vulnerabilities along the base perimeter were genuine...and the alleged terrorists did not choose to exploit them for some reason.

Finally, the vehicles themselves provide a major clue which adds helpful context that must be considered in the broader context of what might have happened. At least one of the vans was marked with the logo of "Fuel 2You" a fuel delivery company, which provides fueling services to machinery and industrial sites, for customers who need small fuel deliveries. However, the logo is NOT the same as the company...they misspelled the name. The vans are marked with "Fuel 2YOU", but the actual company is stylized as "FUEL2U" with the letter "U". The logo is also green in the United Kingdom; the red logo that the suspects copied is from an American company.

This small detail alone is the strongest evidence of malign action. Camouflage is an act that, when discovered, betrays intent to conceal something. And in this case, it's fantastic camouflage, because if a terrorist were to be pulled over with barrels full of flammable liquid, there is no better camouflage than to take on the identity of a company that is known for operating mobile gas stations. The problem is that the suspects googled "Fuel 2 You" and got the logo from the American company, instead of the British company that is called "Fuel2U". The actual company released a statement confirming that their company likeness was used by the suspects without their permission, and that these vehicles had no affiliation with their company whatsoever.

As a result of this final detail, the suspects were almost certainly up to no good, but exactly what they were planning is up for debate and will have to be determined later on. The use of camouflage on their vans is a clever trick that would support either the VBIED theory or the diesel theft theory, but adding up all of the details that are known, every factor lines up more with the diesel theft theory than the VBIED theory. Speculating on the diesel theft theory, everything so far makes sense. A band of thieves masquerading as a fuel delivery service company, and using that as cover to steal fuel would be a rather slick criminal operation (that is, if they weren't dumb enough to use the wrong logo). Since the suspects were captured alive, it is certain that some information will be obtained, but for now a lot of guesswork is required both to determine what actually was being planned, and also what future threats might be still on the horizon.

The discrepancies in the other details of the case indicate that this case is not as cut-and-dry as depicted in the media...there is very clearly something that the authorities are not telling the public. This does not necessarily indicate much on it's own; there is certainly enough wiggle room in the official story for everything to technically be true. Maybe the attackers got lost, or had a breakdown, or were not that great at planning. Maybe they weren't trying to conduct an attack at the time of their discovery, and were instead trying to stage IEDs for later on. On the other hand, it's also possible that these individuals were not terrorists, but rather thieves attempting to steal fuel from the farm at which they were caught. As it stands, the possibilities vary widely, and until more details are known we just don't know.

More broadly, this incident is a high profile matter that will have several follow-on effects even if it was just diesel theft. First and foremost, the American B-1B bombers will probably be moved around the base, since news helicopters revealed where they are parked. Fairford is not the only base where American bombers are located, and these assets are rotated around fairly regularly anyway. Random Antiterrorism Measures (RAM) are certain to increase at

Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground 

Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 

Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 

TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 

00:00 - Global Overview 

00:44 - Europe 

05:36 - Illegal Surveillance 

06:56- UNGA 

08:10 - Media Ban 

09:28 - Ethiopia 

17:38 - Middle East 

19:38 - Magic Dirt 

26:31 - Calm Before the Storm 

29:52 - GhostNet 

Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet 

The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground 

And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire 

If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 

Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA 

//The Wire//2300Z September 25, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: RUSSIA AND UKRAINE INCREASE MUTUAL TARGETING EFFORTS OVERNIGHT. HOUTHIS ATTEMPT TO STRIKE SAUDI TARGETS, ALL MISSILES INTERCEPTED. AMERICAN ASPIRATIONS FOR INTERVENTION IN CUBA CONTINUE TO MOUNT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

 
 -International Events-

Baltic Sea: Tensions are high as a series of escalations have remained constant between NATO and Russia. Overnight a flight of Russian Tu-134 transport aircraft being escorted by fighters was observed patrolling over the Gulf of Finland, prompting Finland and Sweden to scramble fighters to intercept and identify the Russian aircraft.

Analyst Comment: This was the first time a joint identification mission was carried out between Finland and Sweden, but more generally this is a routine mission set and not really anything out of the ordinary. However, as the tensions around the continent remain high and European leaders have issued serious statements over the past few days urging war, these standard identification missions are usually the tip of the spear in terms of the potential for sharp escalations to occur. Fighter aircraft intercepting each other tends to be an opportunity for nations to keep up more active "foreign relations", and an increase in flights over international waters tends to be a barometer for determining how serious nations are with regard to their rhetoric. As it stands, a lot of bluster is going around between NATO and Russia, which will probably get more intense over the next few weeks.

Russia: Overnight, Ukraine increased attacks on Russian infrastructure in retaliation for last night's strikes in Kiev. Ukrainian drones targeted petroleum refineries in Perm and Rostov. A chemical plant was also struck in Voronezh, and a factory was hit in Ulyanovsk. In response, Russia continued strikes in and around Kiev, most notably targeting a McDonald's warehouse.

Analyst Comment: The strikes conducted by Ukraine were the most significant reported in a few weeks, all of which were conducted hundreds of miles from the front lines. The continual Ukrainian strikes on Russian petroleum infrastructure despite President Trump's order to cease these attacks is quite interesting, and highlights the frustrations within the United States regarding the administration of the war. At the moment, many are pointing the finger at Zelensky for his open defiance of the United States regarding strikes on Russian refineries, but reading between the lines in a larger sense, these strikes are also probably not explicitly and solely Zelensky's decision. Looking within, if the US genuinely wants to stop diesel refineries from getting hit (even Russian ones) a quick phone call to Langley is probably more effective in stopping Ukrainian targeting than anything else.

China: Yesterday the National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in the price of gasoline and diesel, raising the national price cap for the second time in two weeks, bringing fuel prices to levels roughly 24-26% higher than pre-war levels.

Middle East: Overnight Houthi forces launched a total of 6x ballistic missiles toward various targets in Saudi Arabia. Saudi forces intercepted all missiles, with no impacts being reported on the ground.

Analyst Comment: Thankfully for the Saudis, this time missile defenses were effective at neutralizing the threat. However, this latest attack has strained the newly-signed Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, which is a mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. Both Pakistan and Turkey are in a tough spot, because this new agreement is essentially the Arab version of NATO's Article 5 in that an attack on one, is treated as an attack on all. Neither Turkey nor Pakistan want to become involved in the Houthi crisis, and as a result have treated the Houthi problem as a "preexisting condition" which is not covered by their new defense policy. Either way, it's semantics at the end of the day, and the biggest threat to Saudi Arabia at present, is the Houthis.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Over the past few days, mainstream media reporting has claimed to have leaked emails describing a potential American ground invasion of Cuba. While this sounds fantastical at face value (which is not helped by the lack of any corroborating sources being publicly available), this has been on the table for some time. Right now, the origin for these claims is a single CBS news report, which references internal Army communications concerning this potential campaign.

Examining the raw data, the current situation in the region does not indicate an imminent invasion or other military campaign. There have been no increases in observable aircraft staging in Florida, nor have there been any irregular troop movements to the region. The US Navy is currently not staging forces for an expected increase in operations within SOUTHCOM, and all naval deployments so far seem to be routine. There has been an observable increase in Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) flights around Cuba for a few months, but nothing that indicates anything serious.

In terms of the likelihood of American intervention in Cuba, the likelihood must be considered in the context of the past few months of rhetoric. President Trump quite literally stated back in March that "Cuba's going to be next", and various statements over the past few months have rather strongly depicted American aspirations on the island. Whether or not the US intends to actually follow through on the desires to seize the island (or do something else) is anybody's guess, but it's not likely to happen anytime soon in any case. For the moment however, posturing and pressure are likely to continue, and probably will escalate over the next few weeks.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 24, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: STABBING REPORTED AT POLISH MONASTERY. INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACKS CONTINUE IN EUROPE. MAJOR MISSILE STRIKES REPORTED IN KIEV. ENERGY CRISIS CONTINUES AS GAS AND DIESEL PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

 
 -International Events-

Ukraine: Major missile strikes were reported in Kiev overnight. Several Iskander missiles struck targets around the city, targeting factories and various production facilities. Additionally, at least four different Zircon hypersonic missile strikes were reported, in addition to the short range ballistic missiles.

Poland: Overnight, a sabotage attack was reported at a Starlink communications hub south of Warsaw. Unidentified assailants set a generator on fire, along with a power distribution hub on site. This site is owned and operated by Exatel (the state-owned telecoms company) and functioned as a ground control station for the Polish military's use of Starlink. This attack took place at roughly the same time as the heavy missile strikes in Ukraine and Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski stated that the attack is being treated as an act of sabotage.

Also in Poland a stabbing attack was reported this morning at a Benedictine Abbey in the town of Jaroslaw. One assailant attacked two priests on the grounds of the monastery, after stealing a knife from the kitchen. During the fray, a total of three clergy and two laypeople were wounded. One of the Sisters of the abbey stated that Father Stanisław was killed during the attack, and Father Marek remains in critical condition. The assailant was detained at the scene and was not identified by name. However local authorities state that the attacker is a Ukrainian national.

Europe: Following the intense targeting campaign between Russia and Ukraine overnight several runaway drones were reported, striking third party nations around the region. This morning a drone struck a wooded area near the border in Romania, and another drone impacted a farmers field in Moldova.

Middle East: Yesterday the Pentagon disclosed the death of another soldier related to the current war with Iran. Major Bianca Wilkerson died after suffering a non-combat related medical incident while onboard an aircraft bound for Saudi Arabia.

Analyst Comment: It is important to note the process for categorizing wartime casualties has changed somewhat since the start of the war. Operation EPIC FURY officially ended on May 5th. Ever since that date, all casualties have been logged under the general banner of "Overseas Operations", which includes US military casualty figures from all around the world, which are not cataloged under a different operation. As a result, it's challenging to determine exactly how casualties (both deaths and the wounded) are being counted.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Within the United States, the energy situation continues to deteriorate. The national average for gasoline remains around $4.50/gal and diesel has steadily risen to around $6.52/gal. Early this morning the Houthi's announced that they had hit more Saudi infrastructure, which has not yet been confirmed by satellite imagery. Regardless, the report alone was enough to cause crude futures to rise further, back up to around $108/bbl.

The White House has not yet announced a decision regarding a potential export ban on diesel, though at the moment most experts (and even Trump himself) are hesitant to implement any export ban, because it might cause more problems than it solves. Either way, a decision will have to be made soon, as diesel prices continue to slowly rise right at peak harvest season and fuel prices for farmers are going to be reflected in the price of food and goods very soon.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 23, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY CONTINUES IN NEW YORK. AMERICAN SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN AIRLINES COME INTO EFFECT. COMMERCIAL VESSEL STRUCK IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. RUSSIAN HELICOPTER BRIEFLY CROSSES POLISH BORDER, ESCALATING GROWING CONCERNS OF AIRSPACE INCURSIONS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

 
 -International Events-

United Kingdom: Immigration issues continue to develop, as channel boat crossings have escalated over the past few days. At least two inflatable boats made landfall in Kent overnight, prompting concerns as to why they were not intercepted and turned around before reaching land. The recent migration surge has resulted in widespread protests at port facilities throughout the country, which have also become more tense as authorities provide security for migration operations.

Middle East: This morning a commercial vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, which resulted in a major fire. The crew of the M/V CAPE DAO abandoned ship, after one crew member was killed and another wounded during the strike.

Poland: Overnight one border incursion was reported near Braniewo, as a Russian helicopter from Kaliningrad flew south over the border. The helicopter flew about 300 meters into Polish airspace before returning to Kaliningrad less than a minute later. Poland scrambled fighters to intercept the aircraft, and ground forces were placed on alert in the border region.

Analyst Comment: This was probably a classic probing incident. Russia has very obviously been carrying out reconnaissance to probe air defenses and test NATO's response, and this case was probably intended to spin up Polish responses, which they dutifully did. Russia probably doesn't need to do this, but these types of light border incursions have been common over the past few decades. This incident is not exactly earth-shattering, but it's also not unremarkable either, and mostly serves as yet another example of how the Cold War era escalations remain constant.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - As of this morning, American sanctions took effect to sanction nations which allow Iranian commercial aviation to operate within their country. These sanctions target nations that allow Iranian aircraft to land and refuel, with the United States threatening to cut off those nations from the US banking system.

Analyst Comment: In response to the United States announcing a total ban on Iranian commercial air travel around the world, China has announced that they will continue to allow Iranian commercial aircraft to operate within their nation. This position was announced the same day that the White House welcomes President Xi for his first state visit in a decade.

New York: The United Nations General Assembly continues as before. Various protest events took place outside the UN building throughout the day, including a few minor groups which blocked traffic for a short while. 

Analyst Comment: Otherwise, an alleged meeting also took place between American and Iranian diplomats on the sidelines of the Assembly, which does not appear to have resulted in any sort of positive movement toward a peace agreement. Both sides appear to be heavily entrenched in their positions, with no real room for actual negotiations at the moment.

Illinois: The Joliet Refinery is returning to normal operations, after being offline for the past ten days due to flooding which caused a power outage. Fuel prices are expected to drop by a few cents throughout the Midwest as this refinery begins to come back online, with gas prices expected to return to the national average after being elevated due to this refinery being offline.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Within northeastern Africa, trouble is brewing in Ethiopia. This beleaguered African nation has been host to civil unrest for many years, as tensions between government forces and rebels within the Tigray region have remained constant.

Northern Ethiopia has become inflamed following years of dispute over the administration of the Tigray region. In 2022, a tenuous peace settled in throughout Ethiopia and Eritrea, after Ethiopia and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) reached a sort of truce regarding the administration of the Tigray region. Last month, the peace deal started unravelling, and as of the past few days, the TPLF is mobilizing once again. This time, a coalition of various militia groups has formed, comprised of the TPLF, the Amhara Fano ​National Movement, and a handful of others operating under a common banner. As of this morning, TPLF militants have captured the airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire, which are comparatively important airports throughout the region. Based on statements by the group, the TPLF is once again trying to overthrow the Ethiopian government and re-take power (as the TPLF ruled the country from the early 90's up until 2018).

While it looks like yet another typical African conflict between the standard warlord types, this conflict is escalating at the worst possible time, when there is already tension in the region as brought on by the Houthis just across the Red Sea. Perhaps most importantly, is the complex web of relationships and alliances. As is extremely common throughout the region, when there's trouble in one African nation, the culprit is usually next door. And in this case, Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of funding the TPLF and trying to overthrow Ethiopia (accusations which Eritrea denies).

How this develops over the next few weeks will be important to watch, simply due to the tensions that are already complicating the region. Nobody needs another war adjacent to a major international waterway, and if this gets worse there's no telling how more destabilization will affect the region. If the TPLF can keep their grievances centered on the Ethiopian government, and if the conflict stays within Ethiopia (as it has so far) this won't be that impactful to the world economy. But if this conflict becomes more regional in a few weeks, this could get ugly. Now that the TPLF has a coalition of other groups, they cover a wider swath of public sentiment, and have the potential to turn up the heat, and if they so choose...allow the pot to boil over.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 22, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: TRUMP SIGNS AGREEMENT WITH GREENLAND, SECURING RIGHT TO BUILD TWO MORE AMERICAN BASES. WHITE HOUSE FLOATS DIESEL EXPORT BAN AMID DWINDLING STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVES. VILNIUS AIRPORT BRIEFLY SHUT DOWN DUE TO BALLOON INCURSIONS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

 
 -International Events-

Saudi Arabia: Officials have announced that some repairs to the East-West Pipeline have been conducted, and some form of capacity has allegedly returned. Some exports are expected to return within a few days, however no onloading of crude has actually occurred yet.

Analyst Comment: It will take about a week or so to determine exactly how much crude is able to flow through whatever repairs were made.

Europe: Overnight Lithuania disclosed an airspace incident in Vilnius, claiming that Belarus released large balloons which drifted into Lithuanian airspace in the vicinity of Vilnius International Airport. Aircraft were grounded for some time due to the incursions, but flights were able to resume later on last night.

Analyst Comment: This has happened before, and is a common annoyance that is squarely in the realm of an act that is enough to cause problems, but not big enough of a problem to launch a war over. Lithuania lost no time in calling this incident a "hybrid war attack", and as a result tensions remain high throughout the region.

-HomeFront-

New York: The UN General Assembly continues, with President Trump speaking before the UN this morning. During his remarks, the main items of note included threatening regime change in Cuba, and threatening further military action in Iran. In addition to the standard proceedings, President Trump also signed a trilateral agreement with Greenland and Denmark, securing terms to build two new American bases in the arctic, which will bolster the American presence in Greenland.

Washington D.C. - Media concerns continue as the White House has banned several legacy media outlets. CNN, Politico, and MS NOW have been banned from the press pool, and not allowed on White House grounds. As a result, most other media outlets have refused to cover White House events, with journalists protesting the move by not showing up, leaving the White House Press Pool effectively empty. At around the same time as the media ban, the White House announced a new state-sponsored media outlet, Trump TV, which will feature all approved messaging from the White House.

Analyst Comment: Though the squabble between the White House and the legacy media would normally not be worthy of note, at this point this saga is resulting in logistical issues. No tears shall be shed for legacy media, but right now things are happening around the world, and they are quite literally the only entities that are allowed into the White House to directly question officials. At a time when the US is involved in two major wars that are expanding by the day, a state-sponsored TV channel is not an ideal form of information exchange.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Around the nation, the fuel crisis continues to develop. Nationwide fuel prices continue to rise, with average gasoline prices remaining at $4.48/gal and diesel at $6.50/gal (and continuing to climb). Heating oil prices in New England have risen sharply over the past few weeks, with prices reaching almost $6.00/gal throughout the American northeast, a 70% price increase from last year. This afternoon, rhetoric surrounding a potential export ban on diesel continued to escalate, with President Trump stating that a decision either way is coming soon. Concerning the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), releases from the SPR have dwindled over the past month, as the salt caverns begin to reach emergency levels. Some reports indicate that at least some of the salt caverns that comprise the bulk of our strategic reserve may be starting to reach unsafe levels of drawdown. 

As a reminder, most of the American Strategic Petroleum Reserve is located at four locations that host a series of old salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana. These caverns are a few hundred feet wide, and half a mile deep. These were formed by pumping water underground which mixed with the salt, and the mixture was pumped out again to sell as commercial grade salt back in the 1940's. After these caverns were empty, they found renewed use for storing crude oil. The mechanics of getting crude out of these caverns is simply to pump in water, and the crude floats to the top to be pumped out. At a certain point, the cavern becomes mostly water...and water and salt mixing tends to be bad for the structural integrity of salt caverns. As a result, many of these salt caverns are theoretically rated for only one-time use...as in, when all the oil is sucked out and only water remains, the cavern might collapse in on itself.

This is an oversimplification, but this is the general gist of how it works, taking into account that most details of exactly how this system works are classified for national security reasons. As a result of these security concerns, speculation has to be heavy because the exact details of the "red line" are not publicly known and are complicated by the unique geography of the caverns themselves. The term "hitting brine" is one of the scariest phrases that can be uttered around this system, because it means that not only is the "tank" dry of crude, but that "tank" might collapse and not be able to be used again. The older caverns obviously suffer from this effect more, as the earlier caverns are oddly shaped and more prone to collapse, whereas the newer caverns don't present much of that risk.

In short, when pushed to extremes (as we are right now) the entire SPR system is a grand mystery, and we're not really sure how far it can go. Every cavern is different, but most experts guess that the SPR can be safely emptied down to about 30-40% of it's total capacity. Some caverns can be emptied out more, but pushing beyond that might result in permanent damage to parts of the system. Theoretically, alarm bells should have been ringing when the SPR level dipped below 300 million barrels, which happened for the first time in history last month. As petroleum stockpiles have dropped to emergency levels, the US has less wiggle-room in terms of market fluctuations brought on my missiles and drones zipping into refineries around the world.

Currently, the SPR sits at 284.6 million barrels in storage, all total. Congress has set a legal hard limit of 252.4 million barrels, meaning that the President would have to declare a full-blown emergency to dip below that. This is probably a contributing reason for why gas prices have continued to rise; SPR releases have slowed down because we're approaching the bottom of the tank. How much further that "tank" can be emptied is becoming mostly an exercise in guesswork, since we are now operating at the far edge of the initial specifications of our national strategic petroleum reserve.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 21, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: BALTIC STATES ISSUE WARNINGS CONCERNING ALLEGEDLY IMMINENT RUSSIAN HYBRID WARFARE ATTACKS. NEWARK ATC SECTOR SHUT DOWN DUE TO CUT CABLE THIS AFTERNOON. UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY BEGINS IN NEW YORK.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

 
 -International Events-

Europe: Tensions are escalating between NATO and Russia, after Lithuania and Latvia have released alleged Russian plans to conduct more active "hybrid war" targeting within the Baltic states, as major military exercises continue around the region. In Lithuania, the STRONG GRIFFIN 2026 large scale military exercise came to a close after running for two weeks near the Belarussian border. Separately, a larger exercise (Perkūno Griausmas 2026) is currently underway, which seeks to test Lithuania's ability to shift from peacetime, to a wartime footing. As a result of both major defense initiatives, tensions have risen as both Belarus and Russia react to wartime preparations on their borders.

Against the backdrop of these major exercises, other developments took place over the past few days which have complicated the situation further. On Thursday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that Poland had intelligence indicating that Russia will seek to escalate "hybrid warfare" tactics throughout Europe over the next few weeks, to include within Poland. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys also confirmed that Lithuania had the same intelligence, and concurred with Poland's assessment. Similar concurrences were issued by the Czech Republic, France, Estonia, and Latvia.

-HomeFront-

New York: This morning the United Nations General Assembly began, which notably included appearances by Iranian officials, which were allowed to enter the United States to attend the proceedings at the UN. President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived this morning, and so far have been confined to the United Nations building as the United States has not issued visas for their free travel around New York.

Washington D.C. - On Saturday the State Department issued a worldwide travel warning for Americans abroad, warning of increased potential for attacks as the wars in the Middle East and Europe are expected to escalate. The American Embassies in all Middle Eastern nations also issued similar warnings, reemphasizing the risks to Americans abroad.

Analyst Comment: The United States had originally planned to conduct strikes on the Houthis in Yemen, but President Trump decided against the operation at the last minute. This was possibly due to the UN summit today, or more specifically, to prevent the White House from having to deal with another escalation of the war while key leaders and diplomats are located within the US for the summit.

Northeast: This morning ground stops were issued for several airspace sectors throughout the region, after a series of mechanical issues resulted in communications systems going offline. The FAA stated that a contractor working on an Amtrak line accidentally cut into a series of underground communications cables at a critical juncture, which resulted in a loss of radar systems throughout the Newark sector. Newark Liberty, JFK, Teterboro, LaGuardia, and dozens of other airports nationwide experienced ground stops and delays while the cable was fixed.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Going back to the height of the Cold War, the nations of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have been some of the most vocal NATO members concerning Russian aggression in the region, purely due to where they are located. To put it bluntly, these three nations tend to freak out quite often anytime Russia sneezes in their direction, simply due to geography....if Russia is to launch a Cold-War-style ground invasion of Europe, she will probably do so via the Suwałki Gap separating Kaliningrad from mainland Russia. As a result of this extreme closeness to Russia, NATO tends to rather unceremoniously treat these three nations as a "speed bump" for Russian tanks, which is intended to buy NATO some time to activate their true defensive line...which is mostly in Poland.

Nearly all serious land-based defenses are in Poland and Germany, and have been for a long time. In nearly all defensive drills Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are unfortunately expected to fall to Russia nearly immediately, in the event that war were to break out. These concepts are certainly outdated based on the technological advances that drones bring to modern warfare, but this has been the training assumption for several decades. All three of these nations suffer from unfortunate geography and very small military forces (Estonia's entire national army, for example, is smaller than the Arkansas National Guard). This is why any reports of "imminent war" from these three nations in particular, must be viewed with a giant heaping of salt.

However, all of this history does not automatically mean that the claims of increased Russian "hybrid war" are not true; in the boy-who-cried-wolf story, the boy eventually does see the actual wolf one day. That might be what's happening in Europe, when viewed in the wider context of the tensions that have been building; Russia probably does seek to increase their own probing "incidents", after NATO has helped Ukraine carry out attacks on Russia. Helping Ukraine defend their terrain is one thing, but allowing Ukraine to carry out offensive attacks deep into Russia is being perceived by Russia as being a direct attack by NATO. It doesn't make it morally right or fair, but that's the reality of the situation. Now that NATO has been supporting Ukraine for so long, NATO has been slowly creeping toward a more direct confrontation with Russia...and the Balkan states are now concerned that this might be starting to happen.

How this will develop over the next few days will be telling. Right now there are no major Russian troop movements within the border regions, and there is no threat whatsoever of a ground offensive through Lithuania. Mysterious drone sightings continue to plague European airports, and probably will remain constant for some time. Drone flights through Lithuanian airspace to Kaliningrad are probably going to increase over the next few weeks as well, which will impact commercial aviation mostly in the form of aircraft being grounded during the incursions and drone sightings. Otherwise, sabotage attacks in Europe will probably escalate over the next few weeks, as tensions remain high throughout the continent.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//