S2 Underground

//The Wire//2000Z October 12, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: HOUTHI STRIKES ON SAUDI INFRASTRUCTURE CONTINUE. PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCES ENERGY CEASEFIRE IN UKRAINE, IMPLEMENTATION PENDING BOTH SIDE'S AGREEMENT. ENERGY DEPARTMENT AUTHORIZES SPR RELEASE DUE TO DISRUPTIONS CAUSED BY HURRICANE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Ukraine: President Trump claimed that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an "energy ceasefire", to halt the targeting of petroleum infrastructure. Neither Russia nor Ukraine have publicly verified this claim, and Ukraine has stated that any ceasefire depends on Russia to reciprocate.

Poland: This morning one arrest was made regarding what is being described as an assassination attempt on Prime Minister Donald Tusk, as well as the Polish Defense Minister. The nature of the alleged plot has not been disclosed, and the identity of the suspect has not yet been released.

Analyst Comment: The details of this case are not clear, as authorities have not stated whether or not the assailant had taken physical action to conduct an attack. So far, all official statements have indicated that a 60-year-old man made threats against the Prime Minister on social media, but no physical act of violence (or preparation for such) has been noted so far.

Saudi Arabia: Over the weekend, Houthi targeting continued with more strikes on Saudi airports. On Saturday, Ansar Allah (the Houthis) launched one ballistic missile toward King Khalid International Airport, with the missile directly impacting Terminal 3. Video footage from the time of impact confirms that no warning was given, and the terminal was packed with travelers at the time of the strike. As a result, over 300x people were wounded and 12x people were killed instantly. The next day, Ansar Allah struck Terminal 4 in a similar manner.

Saturday night, missile strikes were also reported at King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, with unknown success. Separately, a total of three gas and petroleum facilities were also struck, including the Ghawar Oil Fields, the Shedgum Gas Complex, and the Tanajib Oil and Gas Complex.

Strait of Hormuz: Strikes on merchant shipping continued to escalate over the past 48 hours. Several ships were struck over the weekend with a variety of munitions, and strikes continued throughout the day within the Strait itself, as well as the Gulf of Oman.

Analyst Comment: At this point, there are so many ships getting struck daily in the Strait of Hormuz that it's challenging to confirm each one. The UKMTO has mostly been withholding reporting for several days, and only releasing "time late" reports at least a day after a strike takes place. The United States did strike one tanker over the weekend, however Iran has been striking several ships per day for about two weeks.

-HomeFront-

Gulf Coast: Due to the disruptions caused by the arrival of Hurricane Isaias, the Department of Energy authorized an emergency release of 4 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This latest release will take the SPR below 279 million barrels in the Reserve all total, minus whatever crude is drained as part of the 40 million barrel exchange that was authorized last week.

Washington D.C. - Yesterday the Department of Homeland Security conducted a raid at the residence of Rep. Ilhan Omar as part of an ongoing investigation.

Analyst Comment: No details or acknowledgement of the raid has been provided by officials regarding what this was about, however based on recent statements by the White House this could be related to the years-long allegations that she married her brother to secure his greencard status, or her own immigration status. More details are expected later on.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The escalation of targeting in Saudi Arabia is incredibly serious, and is starting to bring about long-term problems for the Kingdom. In short, Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) is in trouble, and if the Houthi targeting keeps up (and civilians keep getting killed), his inability to protect his nation is starting the threaten the throne itself. Missile strikes are bad enough, but ever since the East-West Pipeline was first taken offline by Houthi missiles a few weeks ago, the very GDP of the nation itself is at risk. Due to their main source of national income being mostly offline, two weeks ago Saudi Arabia requested a series of emergency loans totaling roughly $8 billion USD from various banks, just to keep the lights on in the Kingdom. The economic status of the House of Saud has always been a complicated affair, but generally speaking for a nation that is built upon a financial bedrock of crude....things aren't going so well.

Ansar Allah expanding their targeting efforts to include airports is (unfortunately for Saudi Arabia) a very effective means of both taking the fight to their enemy's capital city, but also in exerting some ability to impact airspace thousands of miles away from the front lines on the ground. This morning a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) was issued for the majority of Saudi airspace, warning of continued fighting, and that the security situation presents risk to aircraft at all altitudes. Also, King Khalid airport remains fully closed for at least a week due to the airstrikes.

Though the strikes around the region have been desensitizing after almost 8 months of war, the inability for Saudi Arabia to protect their own capital city is extremely significant for the political situation in the Kingdom. MBS has been unable to protect his nation's income source, and now is incapable of protecting the airport where his family keeps their private jets. If this keeps up, the House of Saud is going to face some very serious threats, not just from outside the nation...but from within. Throughout the war, MBS himself has reportedly been physically traveling between bunker facilities each night, and even though Saudi Arabia is not likely to experience regime change anytime soon, that possibility remains on the table as the tensions within government keep escalating with each Houthi missile.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground 

Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 

Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 

TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 

00:00 - Global Overview 

01:05 - Strategic Movement 

02:24 - Europe 

03:38 - Middle East 

05:45 - Wartime Preparations 

08:40 - Dire Straits 

11:00 - The Numbers, Mason 

15:34 - Homefront 

21:01 - GhostNet 

Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet 

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Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. 

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//The Wire//2300Z October 9, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: UNITED STATES LIFTS DIESEL EXPORT SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IN ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE FUEL CRISIS. ESCALATIONS CONTINUE IN MIDDLE EAST. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN BELGIUM AND FRANCE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Belgium: Following the widespread riots in France, protests have transitioned into riots in Liège. As within France, nearly all of the riots are being conducted by second and third generation children of migrants, who have decided to engage in their own form of student riots in Belgium. Similar riots have remained constant in Brussels, with riot police being deployed throughout the city to handle unrest.

Saudi Arabia: Battle damage assessments indicate that yesterday's missile attack at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh resulted in the destruction of 1-3x commercial aircraft, and the possible damage of several more airframes. This morning more flight disruptions were reported in Riyadh, after another missile strike targeted the airport once again with unknown success.

To the east, large-scale emergency flaring was observed at the Abqaiq Processing Plant this morning, indicating that an unknown incident might have transpired. No missile or drone strikes were reported, but Saudi Arabia has quietly halted their drone/missile alerts so as to conceal strikes on refineries, so exactly what strikes have been conducted so far is not clear.

Analyst Comment: This morning, the USS George H.W. Bush CSG departed port Phuket in Thailand, and was observed steaming south. If this battle group is intended to return to combat operations in the Middle East, this scheduling would put her back in the northern Arabian Sea within a week at the latest. 

-HomeFront-

Gulf Coast: Overnight Hurricane Isaias strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane, picking up energy over the Gulf before it's expected landfall sometime tonight or tomorrow.

Analyst Comment: In addition to the standard concerns of flooding and storm damage, this year's hurricane season is complicated by the extremely fragile petroleum situation in the United States. During hurricanes, localized fuel shortages always take place, but as the war in Iran has stretched our refining and logistical capacity to a breaking point, the addition of Mother Nature into the mix can cause chaos.

Washington D.C. - This afternoon, President Trump announced a trade deal with Russia, removing the sanctions on the sale of Russian diesel in western markets, much of which is expected to be imported within the United States. The Treasury Department issued a license for American companies to buy diesel from Russia, with President Trump stating that Russia is to provide 300,000 tons of diesel immediately, with an additional 500,000 tons next month, and a further shipment of 1,000,000 tons and an additional 3,000,000 tons later on.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Whether or not the Russian diesel will help the global market is hard to determine at the moment; surely the lifting of sanctions on a major global fuel producer will alleviate some pressure in the short term. However the second and third order effects might be more of a problem later on, and this decision is a bit of a mixed bag that complicates the situation quite a bit.

All total, the 4.8 million tons of diesel equates to roughly 36 millions barrels...which is not much. Depending on the season, the US consumes about 4 million barrels of diesel each day, so if all of this diesel is directly imported into the United States, this would supply us for less than ten days. Additionally, Russia also has an export ban on diesel in effect right now, and it's not clear as to if the White House clarified that detail. Questions also remain as to whether or not Russia can even increase exports to fulfill this agreement, but the proof will be in the shipments that arrive in western ports over the next few months. Even though every little bit helps, by the stated numbers this won't help the fuel crisis by much.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 8, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: CIVIL DEFENSE EFFORTS CONTINUE AROUND EUROPE. RIOTS CONTINUE IN FRANCE. CONGRESSIONAL AGENCY CONFIRMS COMBAT LOSSES DURING IRAN WAR ARE DOUBLE WHAT PENTAGON CLAIMED. INDICATIONS GROWING CONCERNING POTENTIAL RESUMPTION OF STRIKES ON IRAN.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

France: Nationwide riots have continued over the past 48 hours. various pockets of unrest remain constant in many major cities, with rioters burning debris in the street, as well as looting various commercial businesses whenever tensions become inflamed in local areas. Clashes with police have remained a constant, and arson events have continued in hundreds of cities around the nation.

Europe: Throughout the continent, Civil Defense plans continue, with various communities and groups conducting training exercises related to the homeland responses to a potential escalation of the war in Ukraine. Last week, citizens in the town of Grums, Sweden conducted what they claim is the first overnight exercise testing out the bunker under the Edsholms Retirement Home, which familiarized locals with the concepts of shelter life. Over the past two days, Latvia conducted a nationwide readiness drill, testing out various evacuation routes and plans in the event of a Russian ground invasion. Similar exercises have been observed in Romania, Lithuania, Poland, and most other NATO members in eastern Europe.

Middle East: Flight delays have been reported in Saudi Arabia, as Houthi targeting of critical infrastructure has remained constant. This morning, the airport in Riyadh was struck again by Houthi ballistic missiles, as the Houthis targeted the airports fuel point as well as parked aircraft. Videos from the ground confirm that several commercial airliners were destroyed during the strikes.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Yesterday the DoJ announced the creation of a nationwide initiative, the American Tour Against Hate, which is being led by the DoJ Task Force to Combat Anti-Semitism. The first stop on this nationwide tour is scheduled to be in Southfield, Michigan next Wednesday.

Also in Washington, the Congressional Research Service released a report detailing the combat losses of equipment so far during the current war with Iran. This update indicates that previous data provided by the Pentagon was inaccurate, and that all total, 81x fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft have been lost or damaged during the war. Previously the Pentagon had claimed that 42x aircraft had been damaged or destroyed, when in reality the number was nearly double the figure stated in May.

Gulf Coast: Overnight, Hurricane Isaias strengthened and is expected to make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane tomorrow night. Heavy rain is expected throughout much of the American southeast over the weekend, as the hurricane drives north into Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Overnight, a blitz of mainstream media reports were published (originating from Axios) claiming that plans are being made by the Pentagon to reengage targeting within Iran. Specifically, some claims state that the targeting campaign is planned for the next two weeks, before the midterm elections, and could possibly include a wider range of targeting options than witnessed so far. Some claims have stated that the decision has already been made, whereas others state that options are only being considered at the moment.

 Right now, these reports are based on unconfirmed rumors and leaks from insiders, and therefore can't be given that much weight considering the information war that's been spun so far on all sides during this war. The timing of these plans does align with the general atmospherics surrounding the conflict in the region, but if this is the chosen course of action, a lot more resources are going to be needed in theater before any major American offensive is conducted.

The USS George H.W. Bush CSG is off station conducting an R&R port call in Thailand, and the USS Theodore Roosevelt CSG has not yet arrived in CENTCOM's area of responsibility. As of three days ago, the most recent satellite imagery confirms that a lot of aircraft are still sitting on the ground at Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar, so those will have to be moved before any major targeting begins. Timeline wise, targeting kicking off again immediately after the midterms is supported by the forces currently in the region. At the shorter-end of the possible escalation window, strikes could take place as early as next week (if the midterms are not a concern), either by the United States or Israeli forces, if the decision is made to return to the war.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 7, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: SUSPECT ARRESTED IN MINNESOTA AFTER ALLEGEDLY PLANNING TO CONDUCT MASS SHOOTING. HOUTHIS RECAPTURE LOST TERRAIN, CONTINUE PRESSING ADVANCE IN WESTERN YEMEN. IRANIAN TARGETING INCREASES IN THE PERSIAN GULF AND STRAIT OF HORMUZ.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Yemen: Houthi forces have recaptured much of the terrain that was threatened by Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) forces, the Saudi-backed, pro-government militia groups which had made advances along the Red Sea coast. A few days ago, PLC forces were observed running over surrendering Houthis with their vehicles, after a few skirmishes turned in favor of the Saudi militias. However, within a day, Houthi forces have pushed back PLC forces once again, using FPV drones along with ground assaults to slow the PLC advance in many key areas.

Analyst Comment: For casual war-watchers, the Yemeni situation is a prime example of why it is wise to wait 24 hours before making judgement calls about which cities are taken. In the span of 24 hours, the Saudi-backed PLC militias captured most of the Yemeni coastline along the Red Sea, to include some patrols entering the town of Mocha...before they were pushed right back out again by the next evening. Within this region, terrain changes hands quickly, and is just as easily lost as gained. As a result, this conflict will probably be a series of back-and-forth exchanges for a while.

Middle East: Within the Strait of Hormuz, the now-daily targeting by Iranian forces has continued to escalate over the past few days. Over a dozen ships have been hit over the past week, and now multiple ships are being struck every single day while trying to make the crossing. As a result of this increase in targeting, two ships have turned around due to Iranian warnings over the radio within the past 24 hours. This afternoon, a ship was struck by Iranian cruise missiles off the coast of Qatar, much further into the Gulf than targeting efforts have been noted over the past few weeks.

Analyst Comment: Despite this increase in targeting, narrative shaping operations continue all around. Most mainstream media sources claim that the Strait is fully open, and the Saudi East-West Pipeline is fully back in operation. However, Iranian attacks on merchant shipping have continued to increase daily, and the Houthi strikes on anything flammable in Saudi Arabia are probably doing more damage than the Kingdom wants to admit. Where this goes from here is anyone's guess, but the situation is definitely not static; moves are being made and the war is intensifying once again, at least from the Iranian side.

-HomeFront-

Minnesota: This morning one individual was arrested for allegedly planning to conduct a terror attack. The FBI arrested Sheikhdoon Abdullahi Mohamud after a two-year investigation, which indicated he had expressed violent intent online. In September, Mohamud began making violent threats in conversations with an undercover agent, which culminated in the suspect being offered an AK-47 for purchase, to conduct an attack with. Mohamud agreed, and was arrested during the sale in a public park immediately afterward.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: For those who hold the opinion that the FBI is incapable of stopping a terror attack that they don't plan themselves, the Minnesota case will not exactly help refute that argument. Per the press statements on this case, Mohamud was under investigation for two years...but the violent threats only emerged in September of this year, after he had already turned 18. So far, this seems to be a lone individual speaking with an undercover agent online, who also sold him a rifle and some ammunition before arresting him. Since this investigation lasted two years, it looks like the FBI was trying to entrap a juvenile, and groomed him until he became a legal adult, and they could arrest him. To be sure, the suspect did express radicalization and intent to carry out an attack, but there is no indication that he was actually able to do so without the FBI's help...if he was only talking about these threats to an undercover agent, this is not exactly an indication of a wider terrorist network (or even a particularly capable lone wolf either). Somewhat poignantly, his violent intentions are not out of the ordinary for the Twin Cities. As a reminder, there are many other well coordinated and well funded groups around the city with the means, motive, and opportunity to cause harm; the previous terrorism and fraud concerns throughout the greater Minneapolis area have remained constant threats for years. However, this individual does not appear to have been a part of any coordinated group and despite the good news of one less individual with nefarious intent being out on the street, this is not exactly the Bin Laden-grade takedown that the DoJ is claiming that it is, and the concerns of entrapment will probably grant the suspect a decent legal defense when this case goes to trial.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 6, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: TWO MERCHANT VESSELS STRUCK BY DRONES IN BLACK SEA, ONE SINKS WITH NO SURVIVORS. TARGETING CONTINUES IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. FORMER GERMAN INTEL CHIEF ARRESTED ON ESPIONAGE CHARGES. ENERGY CRISIS REMAINS CONSTANT AS ARAMCO WARNS OF LOW CRUDE STOCKPILES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Black Sea: Overnight, attacks on merchant shipping continued. Two merchant vessels were struck off the coast of Bulgaria, with one of the vessels sinking early this morning. The M/V ALFA WATAN (IMO: 7510884) and the M/V ABLE (IMO: 9001136), both dry cargo ships reportedly carrying grain, were struck by unidentified drones shortly after departing Turkey (bound for Romania). Following the strikes, the ABLE suffered a catastrophic fire that spread to most of the ship, and the ALFA WATAN sank shortly before sunrise this morning.

The M/V DIOSCURIA, a passing ferry, rescued most of the crew of the ABLE, who had abandoned ship and were awaiting rescue in life rafts. As of this morning, the entire crew of the ALFA WATAN remains missing. The DIOSCURIA and the Bulgarian Coast Guard conducted a search of the last known location of the ALFA WATAN and nothing was found apart from three overturned life rafts, and empty life jackets.

On the eastern coast of the Black Sea, later this afternoon a large oil fire was reported in the Russian port of Sochi, with local sources claiming that a tanker ship had exploded in the harbor. This is a developing situation at the time of this report and more information is expected later on.

Germany: This morning, the former head of Germany's foreign intelligence service was arrested after allegedly engaging in espionage on behalf of a foreign government. August Hanning, the former director of the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), was allegedly paying for continued access to classified material after leaving his post, using an aide to get him access to classified material totaling roughly 2,000 documents over a period of five years. These documents were allegedly used to produce intelligence products for a foreign government.

Analyst Comment: This arrest is a big deal, and one of the most high-profile espionage cases in recent memory. This will be interesting to follow as the foreign government at the center of this case was not named.

Red Sea: Yesterday evening one U.S. Navy MH-60R Seahawk was involved in an incident, with public flight tracking data suggesting the helicopter may have gone down feet wet just off the coast of Yanbu. Shortly after the helicopter began squawking the emergency transponder code, she disappeared from tracking services. The U.S. Navy sent out a P-8A Poseidon to conduct search and rescue, along with the Saudis sending a King Air 350C to also search the same area, though the status of the helicopter and her crew remains unknown. No official acknowledgement of the incident has been issued.

Analyst Comment: Continuing the trend, CENTCOM has issued a very carefully worded "fact check", which uses manipulative language to gaslight the reader. In their post on social media, CENTCOM claims that the reports of a "crashed" helicopter were false, but they subtly change the language in their "fact" portion of the post, to use the word "downed". Nobody is claiming that the aircraft was shot down (it was far outside the range of any hostile action in the region), but CENTCOM is using circular reasoning to imply that the flight tracking feed itself doesn't exist (which it does and can be easily cross checked). The U.S. Navy and the Saudis sending out search and rescue aircraft is more evidence that CENTCOM is concealing the truth of this incident. What is strongly indicated beyond reasonable doubt, is that a U.S. Navy helicopter went down in the Red Sea for some reason, but exactly what happened is not known at this time.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Around the world, the energy crisis continues to deteriorate. The CEO of ARAMCO, Saudi Arabia's state-owned petroleum giant, stated yesterday that "until Hormuz fully re-opens and confidence returns, the crude reality is that pressure at both ends of the barrel will intensify". He also stated that global oil stockpiles are "scarily thin", and getting back to normal could take up to two years. 

This is a defacto admission directly from the horse's mouth, that things are not back to normal right now and this confirms what has been plain to see for a long time...the Strait of Hormuz is not nearly as open as one might be lead to believe.

Lloyd's of London also agrees to the risk as well, with insurance rates for commercial shipping in the region continuing to sharply increase, as the daily Iranian targeting of merchant vessels has remained constant for weeks. Despite this targeting, Ship-to-Ship (STS) transfers to ships waiting in the Gulf of Oman are continuing, even though the capacity of this operation is limited.

Concerning the East-West Pipeline itself (the most reliable alternative to the Hormuz route), the exact timeline for getting some level of crude flowing reliably is not known. The Saudis have consistently lied about the operational status of the pipeline, and have claimed that it's been fully operational despite the strikes on several pumping stations. Some level of oil will certainly return within a few weeks, but many of these facilities will not be easily repaired overnight. Considering Saudi Arabia continuing to press their ground war with the Houthis via proxy groups, the Houthis will continue striking the totally undefended petroleum infrastructure in southern Saudi Arabia.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 5, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: SAUDI PIPELINE HIT AGAIN BY HOUTHIS, STATUS OF PIPELINE UNCLEAR. BRITISH AUTHORITIES ISSUE DISPERSAL ORDER FOR ENTIRE TOWN TO CONCEAL ILLEGAL MIGRANT INVASION. RESEARCHER DIES OF PLAGUE FOLLOWING LAB ACCIDENT IN SIBERIA. EPSTEIN INVESTIGATOR FOUND DEAD AFTER EXPOSING HOWARD LUTNICK'S FINANCIAL TIES TO EPSTEIN.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Russia: Concerns are growing regarding an accident involving pneumonic plague at the Irkutsk Research Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia. A few days ago, one researcher at the facility died from the plague after accidentally breaking a test tube containing the Yersinia pestis virus.

Analyst Comment: Though this story seems quite alarming, this is not to the level of outbreak just yet. The researcher who caused her own initial infection did so accidentally, and immediately followed the proper procedures for such an incident. She was promptly hospitalized, but nevertheless died from the plague a few days later. This will be important to monitor just in case additional infections appear, and 197 people are currently under observation. So far, the only infected person has been the original researcher who broke the test tube.

United Kingdom: Over the weekend authorities issued a Section 34 dispersal order for the entire town of Gosport, effectively locking down the entire population of this town. This order has been issued specifically to protect the migrant arrivals in the town, as major deployments of police are underway to aid and abet the migrants arriving on small boats, which are being escorted into the country. At the same time the lockdown of Gosport was announced, large and coordinated groups of migrants arrived on the beaches in France, to facilitate the highly organized illegal migration during the time that the Section 34 mandate was in place.

Analyst Comment: This is a major concern. To be clear, the Section 34 order is not to the level of outright martial law, but right now if a locals in the town Gosport were to take out their phones and record the migrant hordes being protected and escorted into the country by the police, the police could order that person to leave or be arrested.

United Kingdom: Over the weekend, reports emerged claiming that Simon Andriesz was found dead a few days ago under unclear circumstances. Andriesz was a former employee of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's firm, who turned whistleblower after unearthing new data confirming Lutnick's direct link to Jeffrey Epstein. He testified before the House Oversight Committee, and his work was used to directly summon Lutnick for closed-door testimony before the Committee regarding his financial ties to Epstein. Previously, Lutnick had claimed that he had briefly stopped at Epstein's island for lunch on one occasion, however Andriesz discovered emails between Lutnick and Eptsein, indicating that they were exploring the creation of a business together. On August 9th, Andriesz posted this discovery on social media, and over the weekend he was found dead. The cause of Andriesz's death has not yet been confirmed by authorities.

Saudi Arabia: Last night Houthi forces struck another pumping station along the East-West Pipeline, with heavy smoke plumes being observed by locals being emitted from the facility. Fighting continued throughout the day, with Houthi strikes being reported in Riyadh, Yanbu, and Jizan, which was prompted by continued fighting on the ground between Houthi forces and Saudi backed militia groups.

Analyst Comment: Saudi sources claim that the East-West pipeline is still operational, however if the Saudi-backed militia groups keep poking the bear and making gains on the ground, the Houthis will continue hitting the extremely exposed and undefended Saudi oil infrastructure. In any case, a smoke plume 30 miles long is not exactly good news for pipeline repairs. The Houthis have already demonstrated multiple times that they will wait for the pipeline to be repaired, before hitting it once again, and will continue to do so until something changes on the diplomatic front.

Persian Gulf: Strikes have continued on merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. A total of two vessels were struck over the weekend, and two more were hit today. Also this morning the UKMTO reported one vessel turning back after being hailed by Iranian forces, and warned to not proceed further.

Analyst Comment: If this report is true, this would be an indicator that at least the crew of this vessel did not have any confidence in the American abilities to protect them, so they turned back before being struck.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Over the weekend, the United States withdrew the flight of B-1B Lancer bombers that were stationed at RAF Fairford. This withdrawal was reportedly of an emergency nature; the bombers departed England before the usual refueling tankers had departed the United States to refuel them along the way, and unconfirmed closed-source reporting from personnel at the base suggest that the movement was not announced very far in advance. Currently the Pentagon is insinuating that this movement is being conducted for security reasons. However, this is almost certainly not the case.

Right now, at this very moment, a dozen U.S. Air Force refueling tankers are sitting on the tarmac at Al Udeid airbase, the same base which got hit hard by Iran during the height of the war. This is also the same base that has so far been a key indicator of escalations...when Al Udeid empties out, major strikes are likely to follow within a couple of days. If the US is going to keep these aircraft in Qatar, there is absolutely zero chance that they would move B-1's from England due to being struck by Iran directly, or via proxy groups. Also, the United States maintains a significant presence at other bases in England, such as RAF Mildenhall and RAF Lakenheath. Both of these bases are arguably more important for the United States, with both having been used to house bombers as well. Both of these bases remain at a heightened security posture, but the American presence remains the same as before. 

As to why the US is moving these bombers, it's anyone's guess. It could be a de-escalatory measure, or it could be a feint and they're going to forward-deploy somewhere else. For launching additional strikes on Iran, the B-1's would be helpful (as they launch long-range cruise missiles and larger bombs), but not strictly necessary. B-2's can always deploy from within the United States and fly directly to Iran for precision strikes on certain locations, and considering that the main armament of the B-1B's includes the JASSM cruise missile, and the JDAM smart bomb (both of which are reportedly in short supply), the cost/benefit analysis of keeping the B-1's in the U.K. might suggest this deployment is no longer necessary. Either way, it will be interesting to see what other movements might take place over the next few days, as the war in the Middle East remains as kinetic as before.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground 

Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 

Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 

TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 

00:00 - Global Overview 

01:04 - Strategic Reserves 

04:30 - The Fairford Five 

07:35 - Ukraine 

08:18 - Hormuz Shenanigans 

12:31 - Dodgy Statistics 

19:53 - False Flag Season 

25:40 - Strategic Movement 

30:08 - GhostNet 

Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet 

The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground 

And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 

Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA 

//The Wire//2300Z October 2, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: VIOLENT RIOTS CONTINUE IN FRANCE. SECURITY INCIDENT REPORTED AT GRAND MOSQUE IN MECCA. TROOP DEPLOYMENT SURGE OBSERVED AT SOUTHERN US BORDER. UNITED STATES CONTINUES STAGING NAVAL FORCES AND MISSILE DEFENSES IN MIDDLE EAST.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

 
 -International Events-

Europe: This morning the United States and other G7 countries gathered to examine the release of strategic diesel fuel reserves, to combat the current global fuel crisis. Following morning meetings, the G7 nations agreed to release a total of 100 million barrels of diesel, 50 million of which will be released by the United States.

France: Overnight riots continued to grow in size and scope, with mobs increasing attacks on random citizens. Fire has remained a constant weapon, with schoolteachers and firefighters alike being doused with gasoline and set on fire, or having been hit with Molotov incendiary devices. Reports of looting have emerged in some areas as authorities are not able to maintain order.

Saudi Arabia: Last night, an incident was reported at the Grand Mosque in Mecca. Initial reports circulated suggesting that a man had been arrested after being discovered wearing an explosive vest which failed to detonate. After a few hours, Saudi officials stated that one individual had been arrested for harassing people and "causing panic and alarm", without any mention of any sort of terrorism concern.

Analyst Comment: At face value, it does not make sense for an Islamic terrorist to conduct an attack at the most revered site within Islam, and accounts of what happened very widely. In this case, the cultural significance of the site warrants further investigation to determine exactly what happened. In the videos of the incident that have circulated on social media, bystanders don't seem to be too concerned with evacuating, and the response by security guards is rather lackluster for this to have been a terror attack.

-HomeFront-

Texas: Following a cross-border shooting in the vicinity of Garceño a few days ago, a surge of US military forces was conducted this morning, reinforcing the border region with approximately 500 soldiers. Helicopter Assault Force (HAF) operations were conducted today, inserting several platoons to combat outposts along the border.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Within the Middle East, indications and warnings are growing to suggest significant logistical efforts are being conducted by the United States and Iran, to prepare for a further intensification of the conflict. Earlier this week the USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT (CVN-71) Carrier Strike Group (CSG) departed port San Diego, bound for the Middle East. The USS MAKIN ISLAND (LHD-8) Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) also departed port San Diego the next day, also bound for the Middle East.

The crucial unknown detail is whether or not the US intends to replace the assets on station with these new platforms. If this is a standard relief-in-place operation, this is normal and not an indication of much. However, if these new battle groups are not intended to replace, but rather supplement the assets already on station, this would be a major indicator that major escalations of the war are very likely within a few weeks. As it stands, the current disposition of US forces in the region includes the USS GEORGE WASHINGTON CSG, the USS GEORGE HW BUSH CSG, and the USS BOXER ARG already on station in the Indian Ocean. Of these three, the BUSH has been on station the longest, having been in the region since April, and should be approaching the end of a standard deployment. Similarly, the BOXER has been on station since the end of June, and should be about halfway through her deployment. Considering the fiasco with the USS LINCOLN which resulted in her rapid withdrawal from theater, it's possible that the US Navy is playing it safe and trying to replace battle groups more frequently. However, if these new groups arrive on station and the already-deployed groups stay on station (which happened during the lead up to the war), this would put a total of three aircraft carriers, two amphibious assault ships, and at least one Special Forces Expeditionary Sea Base...a total of six flattops...in the region at the exact moment to be within the predicted window for an intensification of the war.

In addition to naval movements, cargo flights continue to take place around the Middle East. Following the combat loss of the headquarters for US 5th Fleet in Bahrain, much of the logistical effort to keep the Navy supplied has been relocated to Diego Garcia. Concerning air defenses, Axios claims that the US has moved two Patriot air defense batteries to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, to bolster defenses in the region. The battery in Qatar was destroyed earlier in the war, and would need to be replaced in any case, and the relocation of another Patriot battery to Saudi Arabia would explain the sudden effectiveness (or existence) of air defenses that intercepted Houthi missiles last week. All things considered, purely in terms of the hardware that is moving into the region, capabilities are stacking up to support whatever (if any) escalation of force that might be in store for the next few months.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z October 1, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: CHINA HALTS ALL FUEL EXPORTS. MIGRANT STUDENT RIOTS CONTINUE IN FRANCE, HUNDREDS ARRESTED AS MOB ATTACKS REMAIN CONSTANT. ENERGY DEPARTMENT FILES CONTRACT FOR AN ADDITIONAL 40 MILLION BARREL RELEASE FROM THE STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

 
 -International Events-

Europe: The fuel crisis continues to deteriorate. This morning the White House requested France and Germany to tap into their emergency diesel reserves, to ease high prices. The proposal as described would release around 120 million barrels of diesel from the strategic reserves of EU member states over the next 6 months. 

Analyst Comment: So far, this is not a formalized demand, but rather an indirect request made by the White House. No European nation has officially responded to the idea, but many mainstream media reports suggest that the indirect threat has been made of cutting off diesel exports to noncompliant nations.

France: Mass riots continue around the nation. Several days ago, protests began at schools around the country due to long schooldays and declining infrastructure. After the initial low-level protests began in Paris, civil unrest spread throughout the nation. This morning, limited protests and arson incidents had spread to Belgium, with students beginning to conduct similar protests there.

Analyst Comment: This initially started small but after some vandalism took place on the first night, the situation snowballed from there to be more of an African uprising than a simple school schedule dispute. Now, a substantial number of the participants of the attacks are visibly not of French ancestry...most of the arson attacks are being conducted by the children of African migrants. Throughout this afternoon, the riots have expanded to include other non-student migrant enclaves. The mayor of Saint Dennis, Bally Bagayoko (who is ethnically Malian) joined students in setting fire to a trash can in the street, encouraging them to destroy more infrastructure. Many school officials and police officers have been attacked by violent mobs, and several hundred arrests have been made so far nationwide. As it stands, this situation is already very violent, and is only likely to increase in severity over the next few days.

Far East: Last night, China suspended all exports of fuel for the month of October, effective immediately. Hong Kong and Macau have been granted an exemption, but all other export partners will receive zero fuel from China in October.

Analyst Comment: This move will probably affect the decision that the United States has been weighing regarding halting diesel exports. China is not a major exporter of petroleum products, but Singapore and the Philippines are major importers of diesel from China, which is now completely cut off. Malaysia, Bangladesh, and Vietnam are also likely to be heavily affected by the halting of Chinese exports.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Yesterday the Department of Energy authorized an emergency release of 40 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This is an attempt to retry a sale that was initially offered in June, that did not pan out because oil companies did not want to commit to the sale when prices were at new heights.

As a reminder, SPR releases are really loans. When a private oil company is given oil from the SPR to sell on the open market, they have to replace it with more oil than they took out. Now that the market is in a disastrous state, a lot of oil companies have not wanted to take on that obligation, because they think that by the time they have to re-fill that loan, it won't be financially viable (because oil will be more expensive than it is now). Since the SPR has been drained heavily over the past few months, the current levels sit at roughly 283.8 million barrels.

As a result, if petroleum companies take up this contract for all 40 million barrels, and don't replace it soon enough, SPR levels will probably bounce below the Congressionally mandated limit of 252 million barrels. Whether or not companies will indeed take this contract is up in the air, but as it stands emergency levels are being approached, and concerns are growing regarding the structural integrity of the SPR caverns housing America's emergency oil supply.

Analyst: S2A1
 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//