RR The Wire 1830Z December 7, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 183007Z DEC 23

ICOD: 173007Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: U.S. BEGINS INVOLVEMENT IN VENEZUELA/GUYANA DISPUTE.

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-International Events-

Middle East: UN Secretary-General António Guterres invokes Article 99 of the United Nations Charter regarding the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. AC: Invoking Article 99 is a rarely utilized (and largely symbolic) gesture intended to raise awareness on a particular issue. In effect, this action mostly schedules a meeting to discuss the Gaza issue. This move is probably intended to keep the spotlight on the exceptionally desperate humanitarian crisis that is worsening within Gaza.

South America: Yesterday a Guyanese military helicopter crashed due to possible bad weather in the Esequibo near the Venezuelan border. Most of the personnel on board were high ranking military officers. Due to the restrictive terrain, rescue crews have not yet accessed the crash site. However, signs of life have reportedly been observed from the air. US SOUTHCOM has announced they will be conducting joint military exercises within Guyana’s airspace. AC: The “joint” nature of these exercises is probably overstated as Guyana has no attack aircraft whatsoever.

-Analyst Comments-

The US military flights within Esequibo are probably intended to deter Venezuelan aggression in the region, as well as to quietly serve as intelligence collection opportunities. However, the concept of deterrence assumes that the adversarial force knows and understands the consequences of such action. Right now, the chances are high for a random soldier in the jungle to fire off a MANPAD at any aircraft they don’t visually recognize. As such, the risks of conducting these “deterrence” operations are very high. Relying on countermeasures onboard aircraft as a safety measure is also a risky gamble, considering the adversary being one of the most technologically advanced military forces on the continent. A shootdown incident involving a US aircraft would be a great justification for the US to become directly involved in what would immediately become a wider conflict.

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Analyst: S2A

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