//The Wire//0300Z June 13, 2025//
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//BLUF: ISRAEL STRIKES IRANIAN NUCLEAR SITES. IRAN VOWS RETALIATION//

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-International Events-

Middle East: A few moments ago Israeli forces conducted large-scale missile strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities scattered around the nation. The Uranium enrichment and storage facility at Natanz is currently on fire, and the Heavy Water manufacturing center at Arak has also been struck. Several decapitation strikes were reported among key leaders in Tehran, with the leadership of the Iranian nuclear program being the chief target for the first wave of targeting efforts.

AC: Regarding other sites, the fog of war prevents an accurate assessment of which locations have been struck, so the battle damage assessments will have to wait a few hours while the dust settles. Iranian media is currently reporting that Iran is expected to officially declare war soon, though this may be more of a reflection of battlefield excitement rather than official government policy.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Immediately after the first strikes were reported, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the United States was not involved in these strikes.

Texas: A ground stop has been issued for the George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston.

AC: At the moment it's not clear as to what the ground stop is in reference to, other than a general security incident. More details will have to follow later on.

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Analyst Comments: Right now, the immediate concerns center around a near-mid-far threat assessment model, both in terms of physical distance and time: Local threats take precedent over far-away threats, and fast-paced, time sensitive problems must be handled before long term problems that can wait. At the moment, 'near' threat concerns involve potential malign actors conducting attacks in the United States, 'mid-range' concerns pertain to logistics, shipping, and the US personnel that may be within range of any potential Iranian counterattack. Long-term concerns will develop later on as the world awaits Iran's response. Iran does not have the capability to directly strike the American homeland, but they can certainly strike many critical American sites around the Middle East. Considering that Iran had at least four days of very obvious advanced notice of these attacks, that will be a factor to consider as events develop.

Locally to the homefronts of most Western nations, the chief concern is that of Iranian agents, saboteurs, and sympathizers that may be located in positions to cause problems. There are no specific threats that have come to light regarding potential terrorism within the homeland as retaliation, however those indicators would probably not be discernable before any attack anyway.
 
Regardless of the politics behind this action, both pro-Israel and pro-Palestine protests are now extremely high-risk events to attend or be located near. Currently the social situation in the United States is primed for any kinetic activity which may strike the match and light the fuse of the tensions that have been building for some time. The context of the thousands of kinetic protests being undertaken right now in nearly every single US State must also be considered; there is enough overlap between the demonstrators currently causing problems, and those who seek to carry out more substantial attacks.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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