The Year of the Cow - A Ryan Fair Podcast

MARKET UPDATE 6.26.26

For the better part of two years, artificial intelligence has become the market's favorite child. Every earnings report, every conference call, every CEO seems obligated to say "AI" enough times to satisfy Wall Street. Investors have convinced themselves that AI is either going to save the economy or destroy it.

I don't buy it.

AI isn't the canary in the coal mine. It's the miner holding the flashlight. The real dangers are still the ones we've always known: interest rates, energy prices, supply chains, corporate spending, and human behavior. Today we're going to separate hype from reality and explain why the next correction—if it comes—won't be because AI failed. It'll be because investors forgot how markets actually work.

FIFA has come to town, and now seems like the best time to talk up America, and all our visitors.

Lets do something fun, and never forget the melting pot of America is still the GOAT of GOATS!

Everyone wants to know who is winning. Iran or America. Russia or Ukraine. China or the West. I think we're asking the wrong question. The better question is whether anyone can actually afford to win anymore. This episode explores the Strait of Hormuz, the evolving negotiations with Iran, the rise of drone warfare, and the economic realities reshaping modern conflict. We examine why military power alone is no longer enough, how leverage has become the new battlefield, and why energy, inflation, supply chains, and investing are all connected. Because the next great war may not be fought in trenches—it may be fought through economics.

The title says its all. Its June 21st, Happy Fathers Day!

Everyone wants to know who is winning. Iran or America. Russia or Ukraine. China or the West. I think we're asking the wrong question. The better question is whether anyone can actually afford to win anymore. This episode explores the Strait of Hormuz, the evolving negotiations with Iran, the differences between today's conflict and past agreements, and why drone warfare is reshaping military strategy across the globe. We connect oil, inflation, economic warfare, and investing into one larger conversation about leverage, resilience, and power.

Because the next great conflict may not be fought in trenches—it may be fought in markets, supply chains, and systems.

The Strait of Hormuz has gone from geopolitical pressure point to full-blown migraine. After a U.S. Apache helicopter went down near the Strait and Washington responded with strikes on Iranian targets, markets are once again being reminded that oil doesn't care about politics—it cares about shipping lanes. Iran is threatening closure, the United States is escorting tankers, negotiations somehow remain alive, and the entire world is watching a 21-mile-wide waterway like it's the last exit on the interstate before a hurricane. This week we break down why Hormuz matters, who actually holds leverage, and why reality always sends the invoice.

The IPO market is heating up, and with it comes the return of speculation, hype, and the belief that every new ticker is the next great fortune. While some of these companies may become incredible long-term investments, investors must separate great businesses from great entry prices. Massive IPOs are attracting institutional money, retail enthusiasm, and nonstop media attention, but history shows that excitement often arrives before discipline leaves.

This episode explores why patience is an investor's greatest advantage, how capital rotates through markets, and why compounding beats hype. Own the damn stock, but don't let the casino convince you that gambling is investing.

For decades, journalism was supposed to challenge power, investigate facts, and keep the public informed. Somewhere along the way, curiosity was replaced by ratings, and reporting was replaced by opinion. Today, Americans are fed the same handful of stories on repeat while thousands of important issues never see the light of day. The result is a public that is exhausted, divided, and increasingly distrustful of the very institutions meant to inform them. This episode explores whether journalism has become an unelected fourth branch of government, why trust continues to erode, and what happens when the news stops asking questions and starts selling certainty.

This is a mixed bag about leadership, and being the best version of yourself for yourself.

The question starts with, Would you rather have a leader who is tough but runs a tight ship, of a soft one with misfiring assumptions?