This Week in the Middle East

Donald Trump has promised to end the Ukraine war. He says he will do it before his inauguration which may be a step too far even for him. But in the new world of realpolitik, what price peace?

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Reflections and observations from William Morris, Secretary General of the Next Century Foundation

Donald Trump has been elected President of the United States of America. But what does that mean for Israel, and what does it mean for Gaza?

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Reflections and observations from William Morris, Secretary General of the Next Century Foundation

The Sudanese Civil War has now passed its one-and-a-half year mark and shows no signs of slowing. Approximately 20,000 people have died, and the war has created the world’s largest displacement crisis: over 13 million have been forced to flee their homes. Famine has been confirmed in North Darfur, and the rest of Sudan is facing severe food insecurity levels. Multiple severe crimes against humanity have occurred, including ethnic cleansing campaigns and widespread sexual violence against civilians.

In August 2024, a peace initiative led by the United States and co-organised by Switzerland took place in Geneva, resulting in the announcement of the ALPS, or the alluiance for Advancing Lifesaving and Peace in Sudan, which has since achieved a little positive action by reopening some humanitarian access routes.

As a result, about 200 trucks managed to get through the Adré crossing into West Darfur, but struggled to reach the whole region. Sudan’s finance minister, Gibril Ibrahim, has called for the crossing’s closure. He accuses the RSF of using humanitarian convoys to bring in weapons. But Sudan’s long and relatively uncontrolled border with Chad is being used to get weapons into Sudanese territory anyway. 

The RSF has controlled most of Khartoum ever since the war erupted in April 2023. On September the 26th, the SAF launched an offensive in attempts to retake the city. In doing so, they conducted summary executions on up to 70 young men between September 26th and October 2nd. The RSF increased its attacks in response, and just last week, the paramilitary group conducted a five-day attack in Al Gezira. Residents were indiscriminately shot at and were subject to sexual violence, while homes, markets, and farms were looted and set alight. According to the Sudanese doctor’s union, at least 124 people were killed and 200 were injured, making it one of civil war's single-deadliest attacks.

Both parties are securing more advanced weapons from international backers. In the past week the U.S. Treasury has sanctioned Mirghani Idris Suleiman, the SAF procurement chief and director of Sudan’s Defense Industries System. The treasury cited Suleiman’s role in securing Iranian drones and brokering a Russian port-for-weapons deal, which has allowed the SAF to intensify its conflict with the RSF. Last month, the Treasury targeted Algoney Hamdan Dagalo Musa, the RSF’s procurement director and Hemedti’s brother, for funneling weapons to the RSF.

Hemedti recently made impassioned speech accusing Egypt of supplying war planes to the army. This is the first time that the RSF has publicly accused Egypt of being militarily involved.

On the 21st of October, the RSF shot down an Ilyushin-76 cargo plane over North Darfur. The aircraft was breaching the international arms embargo on Darfur, which was recently extended to September 2025 by the UN Security Council. The aircraft was operating in support of the SAF. Alongside three Sudanese nationals, two Russians were among the dead on board the aircraft.

Ultimately, no comprehensive plan for a cessation of hostilities has been drawn up, despite a cessation being one of the Geneva peace talk’s objectives in August, and civilians remain hopelessly impacted by continued warfare. 

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Reflections and observations from William Morris, Secretary General of the Next Century Foundation

The two great bullies of the Middle East spar like innocent giants while the detritus of their hegemony lies in ruins. And America looks on, an impotent giant.

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Reflections and observations from William Morris, Secretary General of the Next Century Foundation

William Morris LL.D., Secretary General of the Next Century Foundation, reflects on the ongoing war between Israel and Lebanon and its consequences.
Joint Military Exercises in the Red Sea Between Former Regional Rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia: What Does This Mean?

The joint military exercise reflects a deepening of the recent resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It signals that Middle East countries have lost confidence in the US. In April 2024 Iran and Saudi Arabia announced the restoration of diplomatic ties in Beijing. The joint military exercise signals further progress in this recent reconciliation. It also signals diminished regional trust in the credibility of the US – which has consistently failed to back its words with actions – reflecting a regional cooperative effort to strengthen security management in the Red Sea region. In the context of the current crisis in the Middle East, the joint exercise serves as a reminder to the international community that it should be more concerned with the will of the regional countries rather than on that of external major powers. This collaboration could pave the way for further dialogue and de-escalation of regional tensions.

Iran wants to show that it can play a constructive role beyond its traditional alliances with groups like Hezbollah or the Houthis, particularly after Nasrallah’s death, and may be using these drills to show off its naval power to Israel in this interim period before Israel’s counterattack. Also, to show Israel that Iran is a key persuasive voice in the region to be able to conduct joint military exercises with its formal rival. The decision to perform the exercises and show off power is likely heightened by the tense wait for Israel’s counterattack on Iran, which is set to come sometime before the US election day.

The military exercises were also conducted alongside other countries, including Oman and Russia. The Kremlin wants to assert its presence to bolster its geopolitical influence in the region, particularly along the Red Sea (where it wants a port), and most likely to assert itself against US influence in the Middle East. But the exercises also point towards a desire for increased regional security and stability in the Middle East post-October 7, considering the large amounts of military support supplied to Israel by the West.

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Reflections and observations from William Morris, Secretary General of the Next Century Foundation

With a full-scale war now virtually inevitable before the US elections, Biden has given Israel Thad Batteries (Terminal High Altitude Arial Defense Batteries) and the US military staff to operate them. What are the consequences? What will the nature of the war be? Is there any prospect for war avoidance?

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Reflections and observations from William Morris, Secretary General of the Next Century Foundation

Watch and weep as deaths mount in Lebanon - and for what sweet Jesus, for what?

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Reflections and observations from William Morris, Secretary General of the Next Century Foundation

Florence Morris who is running 7k to raise funds for the NCF talks about what the NCF actually is

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Reflections and observations from William Morris, Secretary General of the Next Century Foundation

The Next Century Foundation has put together a report on action needed regarding the Gaza War from the new British government.

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Reflections and observations from William Morris, Secretary General of the Next Century Foundation

The Gaza war continues and Premier Netanyahu retains power and there is little prospect of change. But what if there were a new tomorrow? What then?

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Reflections and observations from William Morris, Secretary General of the Next Century Foundation