Phil Seymour shares his extensive journey in aviation, starting from his childhood under the flight path of Heathrow Airport to his career at British Airways and beyond. He discusses the challenges and transitions he faced, including the impact of economic downturns on the aviation industry, his experiences living abroad, and the founding of an airline. Phil also highlights the importance of adaptability and innovation in navigating the complexities of the aviation sector. In this conversation, Phil Seymour discusses his journey in the aviation industry, emphasizing the importance of innovation, data analytics, and leadership during crises. He reflects on the evolution of IBA, the significance of passion and consistency in leadership, and the changing dynamics between appraisers and OEMs. The discussion highlights the need for a data-driven approach in aviation and the opportunities that arise from adapting to new technologies and market demands. In this conversation, Phil Seymour discusses the complexities of aircraft valuation, financing decisions, and the impact of tariffs on the aviation industry. The discussion delves into market dynamics, order book implications, and the challenges posed by economic uncertainty. The speakers also explore the future of aviation, aircraft deliveries, and the nuances of valuation in a fluctuating economic landscape. 

Conor McCarthy shares his journey in aviation, starting from his apprenticeship at Aer Lingus at the age of 16. He discusses his early experiences, the challenges he faced, and his rise through the ranks to become an executive. Conor highlights the transformative period for Aer Lingus with the introduction of the Airbus A330, the challenges posed by competitors like Ryanair, and the strategic decisions made to adapt to the evolving aviation landscape. His insights reflect a deep passion for the industry and a commitment to innovation and progress.

In this conversation, Ken Newton shares his extensive experience in the aviation industry, detailing his journey from the Marine Corps to Alaska Airlines. He discusses the evolution of Alaska Airlines, the importance of safety culture, and the challenges faced during mergers and integrations. Ken also addresses the current state of engine technology, supply chain challenges, and the future of the airline industry as he prepares for retirement.

Ken discusses his path through the Marine Corps, Flying Tigers, FedEx, and Alaska Airlines. The conversation focuses on engines, including Ken's experience with the CFM56 and the new LEAP-1B. We also discuss the future of engine programs, reliability, and fuel burn.

David shares his journey in the aviation industry, detailing his transition from a sales assistant to the founder of Setna IO. He discusses the challenges faced during the COVID-19 pandemic, the strategic decisions made to navigate the crisis, and the subsequent growth of his company. Chaimovitz emphasizes the importance of understanding the market, building relationships, and maintaining a proactive approach in business. He also shares insights on the future of the aviation industry and the potential for continued growth despite challenges. 

David discusses the intricacies of managing aircraft parts and the MRO business, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making and understanding market dynamics. He highlights the challenges faced in the industry, including the complexities of aircraft tear down and parts recovery, and the need for diverse buyer perspectives. Additionally, Chaimovitz shares insights on how population trends may impact the aviation industry and offers a future outlook for his company and the sector as a whole.

Evan details his journey through various roles in aircraft financing and consulting. We discuss the evolution of the aviation industry, the impact of financial innovations, and the significant changes brought about by events like 9/11. The speaker also highlights their recent work in forecasting and consulting within the aircraft ABS market, showcasing their expertise and insights into the industry's future. This conversation delves into the complexities of the aviation finance market, focusing on the dynamics of asset-backed securities (ABS) and the evolving landscape post-COVID. The speakers discuss investment opportunities, the impact of global events on aviation, and the resilience of the industry amidst various crises. They also explore the differences between current ABS structures and those from the past, highlighting the importance of cash flow certainty and the potential for innovative financing solutions for lessors. In this conversation, the speakers delve into the current state of the aircraft ABS market, discussing innovative leasing structures, the impact of COVID-19, and future trends in aircraft valuation. They explore the dynamics of secondary trading, risk assessment in investments, and the implications of changing lease structures on the market. The discussion highlights the importance of understanding market trends and the potential opportunities that arise in the evolving landscape of aviation finance.

We welcome back Mark Streeter and Jamie Baker from JP Morgan Chase.  We discuss what happened in 2024 and what's likely to happen in 2025 in commercial aviation.

The conversation provides a comprehensive update on the airline industry, focusing on market trends, capacity discipline, leasing strategies, and financial maneuvers such as sale leasebacks. The speakers discuss the implications of these factors for 2024 and beyond, highlighting the evolving dynamics of the airline market and the influence of OEMs on capacity and leasing strategies. They also reflect on unexpected developments in aircraft recovery and the overall financial health of airlines. In this conversation, the speakers delve into the complexities of airline profitability, particularly focusing on Spirit Airlines and its challenges in competing with major players like Delta. They discuss the evolving business models in the airline industry, emphasizing the shift from traditional loyalty programs to more currency-like systems. The conversation also touches on consumer behavior, the changing dynamics of airline club experiences, and the cultural value that airlines like Southwest bring to the table. Looking ahead to 2025, the speakers share their predictions for the industry, highlighting potential shifts and opportunities.

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In this conversation, Mike Platt and John Shavinsky share their diverse backgrounds in aviation, discussing their journeys from engineering to legal roles and the evolution of the aviation industry. They delve into the complexities of aircraft leasing, the challenges faced by airlines today, and the implications of current market dynamics on future aircraft orders. The discussion highlights the importance of experience and knowledge in navigating the aviation landscape, especially in light of recent industry changes. This conversation delves into the complexities of the aircraft leasing market, exploring the challenges faced by airlines and lessors in a rapidly changing economic landscape. The discussion highlights the long-term implications of aircraft orders, the competitive nature of leasing, and the need for flexibility in contracts. The speakers also reflect on the future of aircraft technology and the importance of strategic planning in the face of uncertainty. In this conversation, the speakers delve into the complexities of the aircraft leasing market, discussing the challenges of maintenance, the dynamics of aircraft pricing, and the future of airline economics. They explore the implications of rising costs for airlines, particularly in the context of Air India's growth and the broader aviation market. The discussion also touches on the role of lessors in managing aircraft and the challenges faced by OEMs in meeting delivery demands. Overall, the conversation provides valuable insights into the current state and future outlook of the aviation industry.

Brian Rynott shares his journey through the aviation industry, detailing his early passion for aviation, career transitions, and experiences at major companies like American Airlines and AWAS. He discusses the evolution of Intrepid Aviation and his current role, providing insights into the aviation landscape and personal anecdotes that shaped his career. In this conversation, Brian Rynott discusses his journey in the aviation industry, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. He emphasizes the importance of building long-term relationships with clients, understanding the intricacies of the business, and leveraging data to inform marketing strategies. Rynott also highlights the evolving role of airlines as strategic buyers of aircraft and the need for lessors to adapt to these changes. The discussion underscores the significance of personal interactions in a digital age and the value of adding insights beyond just financial metrics in business transactions. In this conversation, the speakers discuss the evolution of aircraft buying processes, the maturity of the leasing industry, and the rise of lessors and new financial structures. They explore the changes in the aviation finance landscape, the impact of market dynamics on leasing strategies, and the comparative analysis of aviation with other capital-intensive industries. The discussion highlights the importance of adapting to industry changes and the future outlook for aircraft leasing.

Summary

In this conversation, Jochen Schnadt shares his lifelong passion for aviation, detailing his journey from aspiring pilot to air traffic controller, and eventually to founding JetMagic and Fly4 Airlines. He discusses the challenges faced in the airline industry, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the evolving consumer behavior that impacts travel patterns. Jochen emphasizes the importance of adaptability in aviation and reflects on the industry's need to improve its narrative regarding environmental challenges. The discussion also touches on the role of ACMI in modern aviation and the significance of understanding market dynamics.

Takeaways

• Jochen's passion for aviation began at age six.
• He transitioned from aspiring pilot to air traffic controller.
• JetMagic faced challenges due to undercapitalization.
• The airline industry is complex and often frustrating.
• COVID-19 has fundamentally changed consumer behavior.
• ACMI has become a strategic tool for airlines post-COVID.
• Seasonality presents both risks and opportunities for airlines.
• Consumer preferences are shifting towards cooler destinations.
• The adaptability of the aviation industry is remarkable.
• The industry needs to improve its public relations regarding environmental impact.

Sound Bites

• "I was 20 years younger and had more energy."
• "The adaptability of the industry is just unbelievable."
• "COVID has been a catalyst for seismic shifts."

This episode turns the tables on Gueric and Courtney by having industry listeners interview them.  David Sims and Brian Rynott join to torture the original hosts with questions about themselves.  This podcast touches on the history of the podcast, as well as leadership styles and lessons learned.