Tochnyi

Why a forced ceasefire in Ukraine is a terrible idea - with Fabian Hoffmann

Originally Streamed February 16, 2025 

Tune in every Sunday at21:00 Kyiv time,20:00 Berlin time, 2 PM New York time, for another episode of Tochnyi Weekly on our YouTube Channel! /@Tochnyi

(To convert 21:00 Kyiv time to your time):

https://daylight-savings.com/difference/eu/eastern/

Panel:

⭐ Fabian Hoffmann, @FRHoffmann1

▶️ Joseph,@josephthomason.tochnyi.info

▶️ Colby Badhwar, @ColbyBadhwar

▶️ Erlend, @eDrotning - @edrotning.tochnyi.info

▶️ Geschlittert, @geschlittert.bsky.social

▶️ German Aid to Ukraine, @deaidua (pre-recorded)

Program Guide:

00:00:00 Intro 

00:00:59 Welcome 

00:01:42 Why a forced peace is bad 

00:06:14 Can Russia re-arm in 1-2 years? 

00:12:46 Russia's next move? 

00:15:00 Can NATO defend its borders in the near future? 

00:17:28 deterrence now more effective than later? 

00:21:40 Peace through strength - or risk through weakness 

00:25:04 The chances of Russia becoming irrational 

00:27:45 American projections on Ukraine 

00:28:51 What does a Security Guarantee look like for Ukraine? 

00:33:38 The possibility of casualties in a European peacekeeping force 

00:36:09 The political will to maintain European peacekeepers 

00:39:34 How would the situation change if Ukraine had Nuclear deterrence? 

00:52:27 Could Europe help Ukraine hold its own without the US? 

01:07:28 How long could Ukraine survive on its own? 

01:10:15 Wrap up 

Fabian Hoffmann is a Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project (ONP), University of Oslo, specializing in missile technology, nuclear strategy, and defense policy. His PhD research explores the strategic-level effects of conventional long-range strike weapons, analyzing their implications for conventional and nuclear deterrence.

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See the work of “the Basement” here:https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/

Follow the Basement’s separate project: “Unit Observer”

Bluesky: @warunitobserver.bsky.social

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https://linktr.ee/tochnyi

Please subscribe, like, retweet and visit Tochnyi's website to support our latest research and other work. You can watch all the live broadcasts on YouTube!

Tochnyi is a collective project which aims to accurately report, discuss and analyze news and information relating to the Russian Federation’s illegal war against Ukraine.

Tochnyi recognizes that the voices of ordinary Ukrainians must be front and center in any reporting.

Tochnyi recognizes that all dimensions of Ukrainian society are affected by the war, and so seeks to report on all aspects of its impact.

Tochnyi seeks to deliver more than just the headline. Its aim is to unpack the issues behind the headlines, and engage with those stories that slip through the cracks.

Failed American Deal - News and German Aid to Ukraine

February 16, 2025 

Tune in every Sunday at21:00 Kyiv time,20:00 Berlin time, 2 PM New York time, for another episode of Tochnyi Weekly on our YouTube Channel! /@Tochnyi

(To convert 21:00 Kyiv time to your time):

https://daylight-savings.com/difference/eu/eastern/

Panel:

▶️ Joseph, @JThomason88 - @josephthomason.tochnyi.info

▶️ Colby Badhwar, @ColbyBadhwar

▶️ Erlend, @eDrotning - @edrotning.tochnyi.info

▶️ German Aid to Ukraine, @deaidua (pre-recorded)

Program Guide:

00:00 New Intro 

00:59 Welcome-Kickoff 

02:03 News 

02:09 Operations 

08:30 Economy & Aid 

16:09 IntlRel 

20:18 News Closing 

20:24 GAU 

21:39 Closing 

22:16 Subscribe 

22:25 End 

Follow us on BlueSky: @tochnyi.info

Twitter (X): @tochnyi

Spotify: TochnyiPodcasts

See the work of “the Basement” here:https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/

Follow the Basement’s separate project: “Unit Observer”Bluesky: @warunitobserver.bsky.socialTwitter(X): @WarUnitObserver

https://linktr.ee/tochnyi

Please subscribe, like, retweet and visit Tochnyi's website to support our latest research and other work. You can watch all the live broadcasts on YouTube!

Tochnyi is a collective project which aims to accurately report, discuss and analyze news and information relating to the Russian Federation’s illegal war against Ukraine.

Tochnyi recognizes that the voices of ordinary Ukrainians must be front and center in any reporting.

Tochnyi recognizes that all dimensions of Ukrainian society are affected by the war, and so seeks to report on all aspects of its impact.

Tochnyi seeks to deliver more than just the headline. Its aim is to unpack the issues behind the headlines, and engage with those stories that slip through the cracks.

Orignally Streamed: November 25, 2024

Special guest: Jake Broe / @jakebroe

Special guest: Fabian Hoffmann @FRHoffmann1 / @frhoffmann.bsky.socialCheck out Artem's article on FPV & UAV interceptions, 'A new age of aerial combat' :

https://tochnyi.info/2024/11/fpv-inte...

Daniele's latest article on ATACMS and Long Range Strikes (LRS):

https://tochnyi.info/2024/11/reaching...

Panel:

Erlend @eDrotning / @edrotning.tochnyi.info

Joseph Thomasson @JThomason88 / @josephthomason.tochnyi.info

https://linktr.ee/tochnyi

Tune in every Sunday at 21:00 Kyiv time, 20:00 Berlin time, 3 PM New York time, for another episode of Tochnyi Weekly!

Please subscribe, like, retweet and visit Tochnyi's website to support our latest research and other work. You can watch all live broadcasts on Twitter/X live or YouTube!

Tochnyi is a collective project which aims to accurately report, discuss and analyze news and information relating to the Russian Federation’s illegal war against Ukraine.

Tochnyi recognizes that the voices of ordinary Ukrainians must be front and center in any reporting.

Tochnyi recognizes that all dimensions of Ukrainian society are affected by the war, and so seeks to report on all aspects of its impact.

Tochnyi seeks to deliver more than just the headline. Its aim is to unpack the issues behind the headlines, and engage with those stories that slip through the cracks.

Bionade discusses the work of USAID in Ukraine, the Return on investment to countries around the world, and how important it is for the US government to keep the funding active:Panel:▶️ Geschlittert, @geschlittert - @geschlittert.bsky.social▶️ Joseph, @JThomason88 - @josephthomason.tochnyi.info▶️ Bionade, @b1on4de.bsky.social, @B1on4de▶️ Erlend, @eDrotning - @edrotning.tochnyi.info▶️ Jonathan, @wendy_dyershttps://linktr.ee/tochnyiTune in every Sunday at 21:00 Kyiv time, 20:00 Berlin time, 2 PM New York time, for another episode of Tochnyi Weekly on our YouTube Channel! /@TochnyiPlease subscribe, like, retweet and visit Tochnyi's website to support our latest research and other work. You can watch all live broadcasts on Twitter/X live or YouTube!Tochnyi is a collective project which aims to accurately report, discuss and analyze news and information relating to the Russian Federation’s illegal war against Ukraine.Tochnyi recognizes that the voices of ordinary Ukrainians must be front and center in any reporting.Tochnyi recognizes that all dimensions of Ukrainian society are affected by the war, and so seeks to report on all aspects of its impact.Tochnyi seeks to deliver more than just the headline. Its aim is to unpack the issues behind the headlines, and engage with those stories that slip through the cracks.Further Reading:{It was intended to place a link here for the USAID website for Ukraine, but it has apparently been taken offline by the new “Department of Government Efficiency”, so we’ll give you a link to a news article about taking the website offline instead}AP: https://apnews.com/article/usaid-website-offline-trump-foreign-funding-freeze-9d2ecdaff5c74a9f6b0d6096fa2228ffThe cost of cutting USAID:https://www.usaidstopwork.com/USAID Ukraine’s YouTube channel (still up as of this post):http://www.youtube.com/@usaid_ukraineUS Embassy in Ukraine:https://ua.usembassy.gov/tag/usaid/AP:Volunteers are now tracking what’s already been lost in the USAID freeze:https://apnews.com/article/usaid-foreign-aid-freeze-international-development-325c807f4f3930adbaa5c42dfef69c69Forbes:The Wiretap: USAID Was A Big Help In Ukraine’s Cyber War With Russia. Not Any More.https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2025/02/11/usaid-was-a-big-help-in-ukraines-cyber-war-with-russia-not-any-more/PEW Research Center:What the data says about U.S. foreign aidhttps://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/02/06/what-the-data-says-about-us-foreign-aid/

Geschlittert joins the panel for a discussion about Kursk, GeoINT, and what’s new in the basement.

discussed by our panel, with questions taken live from the audience.

Panel:

▶️ Geschlittert, @geschlittert - @geschlittert.bsky.social

▶️ Joseph, @JThomason88 - @josephthomason.tochnyi.info

▶️ Bionade, @b1on4de.bsky.social, @B1on4de

▶️ Erlend, @eDrotning - @edrotning.tochnyi.info

▶️ Jonathan, @wendy_dyers

See the work of “the Basement”here:https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/

Follow the Basement’s separate project: “Unit Observer”

Bluesky: @warunitobserver.bsky.social

Twitter(X): @WarUnitObserver

(If you’re interested in volunteering in “The basement”, follow this link):

https://tochnyi.info/join-andrew-perpetuas-project-help-document-the-war-in-ukraine/

https://linktr.ee/tochnyi

Tune in every Sunday at21:00 Kyiv time,20:00 Berlin time, 2 PM New York time, for another episode of Tochnyi Weekly on our YouTube Channel! /@Tochnyi

Please subscribe, like, retweet and visit Tochnyi's website to support our latest research and other work. You can watch all live broadcasts on YouTube every Sunday!

Tochnyi is a collective project which aims to accurately report, discuss and analyze news and information relating to the Russian Federation’s illegal war against Ukraine.

Tochnyi recognizes that the voices of ordinary Ukrainians must be front and center in any reporting.

Tochnyi recognizes that all dimensions of Ukrainian society are affected by the war, and so seeks to report on all aspects of its impact.

Tochnyi seeks to deliver more than just the headline. Its aim is to unpack the issues behind the headlines, and engage with those stories that slip through the cracks.

Tune in Sunday at 21:00 Kyiv time, 20:00 Berlin time, 2 PM New York time, for another episode of Tochnyi Weekly!

▶️ Geschlittert, @geschlittert - @geschlittert.bsky.social

▶️ Joseph, @JThomason88 - @josephthomason.tochnyi.info

▶️ Bionade, @b1on4de.bsky.social, @B1on4de

▶️ Erlend, @eDrotning - @edrotning.tochnyi.info

▶️ Jonathan, @wendy_dyers

https://linktr.ee/tochnyi

Follow Tochnyi’s latest projects, research and information:

https://Tochnyi.info

Follow German Aid to Ukraine’s work and publications:https://deaidua.org/en/

Please like, retweet, and spread the word. You can watch it live on YouTube every Sunday!

Tochnyi is a collective project which aims to accurately report, discuss and analyze news and information relating to the Russian Federation’s illegal war against Ukraine.

Tochnyi recognizes that the voices of ordinary Ukrainians must be front and center in any reporting.

Tochnyi recognizes that all dimensions of Ukrainian society are affected by the war, and so seeks to report on all aspects of its impact.

Tochnyi seeks to deliver more than just the headline. Its aim is to unpack the issues behind the headlines, and engage with those stories that slip through the cracks.

Originally Streamed 11/17/2024

Previously Streamed on YouTube February 2nd, 2025

Tune in Sunday at 21:00 Kyiv time, 20:00 Berlin time, 2 PM New York time, for another episode of Tochnyi Weekly!

▶️ German Aid to Ukraine, @deaidua

▶️ Erlend @eDrotning

▶️ Joseph, @JThomason88 

▶️ Colby Badhwar, @ColbyBadhwar

https://linktr.ee/tochnyi

Please like, retweet, and spread the word. You can watch it live on YouTube every Sunday!

Tochnyi is a collective project which aims to accurately report, discuss and analyze news and information relating to the Russian Federation’s illegal war against Ukraine.

Tochnyi recognizes that the voices of ordinary Ukrainians must be front and center in any reporting.

Tochnyi recognizes that all dimensions of Ukrainian society are affected by the war, and so seeks to report on all aspects of its impact.

Tochnyi seeks to deliver more than just the headline. Its aim is to unpack the issues behind the headlines, and engage with those stories that slip through the cracks.

Originally Streamed 11/17/2024

Originally Streamed 17th November 2024

With Mirko Campochiori Part 1 of 3

Kursk

Geolocation/Mapping discussion

Kursk Operation

UA/RUS Recruiting

Ukraine concept behind Kursk Operation

UA Rotation / Shuffling units

Koksan vs other Artillery/Effect of Artillery

Impact of Drones / EW in Kursk

The Kursk operation and the wider frontline are discussed by our panel

Special guest:

▶️ Parabellum (Mirko Campochiari), / @parabellumstoria

Panel:

▶️ Joseph, @JThomason88

▶️ German Aid to Ukraine, @deaidua

▶️ Erlend, @eDrotning

▶️ Daniele, @HartreeFock

▶️ Andrew Perpetua, @AndrewPerpetua

▶️ Road to Mars

https://linktr.ee/tochnyi

Tune in every Sunday at 21:00 Kyiv time, 20:00 Berlin time, 2 PM New York time, for another episode of Tochnyi Weekly!

Please subscribe, like, retweet and visit Tochnyi's website to support our latest research and other work. You can watch all live broadcasts on Twitter/X live or YouTube!

Tochnyi is a collective project which aims to accurately report, discuss and analyze news and information relating to the Russian Federation’s illegal war against Ukraine.

Tochnyi recognizes that the voices of ordinary Ukrainians must be front and center in any reporting.

Tochnyi recognizes that all dimensions of Ukrainian society are affected by the war, and so seeks to report on all aspects of its impact.

Tochnyi seeks to deliver more than just the headline. Its aim is to unpack the issues behind the headlines, and engage with those stories that slip through the cracks.