There's a lot riding on the upcoming presidential election: reproductive freedom, climate change, healthcare, Supreme Court appointments, just to name a few. But no matter what issue is at the top of your list, the decision that Americans will be making over the next six weeks will have a lasting effect for decades to come. This week on Sea Change Radio, we speak with Democratic strategist and data analyst Tom Bonier about the presidential election. In the first half of our two-part discussion, we look beyond the polls, as Bonier explains other elements that measure voter intensity, examine the lingering impact of the 2022 Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, and dig into voter registration data in key states like Pennsylvania and Florida.

Narrator| 00:02 - This is Sea Change Radio covering the shift to sustainability. I'm Alex Wise.

Tom Bonier (TB) | 00:17 - In any given moment, most Americans aren't worried about their right to an abortion, but if you ask them what question is a deal breaker for them, that's just not negotiable. It's number one by far.

Narrator | 00:32 - There's a lot riding on the upcoming presidential election: reproductive freedom, climate change, healthcare, Supreme Court appointments, just to name a few. But no matter what issue is at the top of your list, the decision that Americans will be making over the next six weeks will have a lasting effect for decades to come. This week on Sea Change Radio, we speak with Democratic strategist and data analyst Tom Bonier about the presidential election. In the first half of our two-part discussion, we look beyond the polls, as Bonier explains other elements that measure voter intensity, examine the lingering impact of the 2022 Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, and dig into voter registration data in key states like Pennsylvania and Florida.

Alex Wise (AW) | 01:33 - I'm joined now on Sea Change Radio by Tom Bonier. Tom is a democratic strategist and data analyst, and he's with the Tara Group and TargetSmart. Tom, welcome to Sea Change. Radio,

Tom Bonier (TB) | 01:46 - It's great to be here.

Alex Wise (AW) | 01:47 - I've wanted to talk to you for a long time. I've followed your work for many years. I know that being liberal in 2024 means constantly being afraid, but I find your words to be reassuring in these very murky times. The data that you work with is pointing in encouraging ways for you. Why can that dispel some of the fears that so many liberals are feeling since 2016, really…

Tom Bonier (TB) | 02:15 - Yeah. And, and, and I'll include myself in the we all of that. I think if, if you don't have some amount of fear, uh, given the stakes, you probably aren't paying close enough attention. But as you said, for me, I find solace in data and that goes above and beyond polling. I think most people focus on polling, and as we know, polling, is not always the most reliable indicator of which way the political winds might be blowing. And so what I tend to focus on is more individual level data that focuses on actions people are taking. So that's generally new voter registrations. It's election result, in the lead up to an election that might be primary election results. It could be special elections. And then, you know, the other sort of campaign-related information, how they're raising money. The numbers of activists and volunteers we're just looking for signs of energy and enthusiasm. We know that the one big part of the equation, of determining who's likely to win an election, is turnout to state the obvious. It's turnout and persuasion polls give us a pretty good sense of persuasion and all of that other data gives us a much clearer sense of engagement and turnout.

AW | 03:32 - But as you've said, polls don't tell us who's going to vote, and you call it measures of intensity. Why don't you spell that out for our listeners if you can. 

TB | 03:42 - Yeah, and so to even just to drill down on that point,