Too Close To Call Podcast

Stephen Lawson is a Republican operative who has worked for Govs. Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis in Florida before moving to Georgia where he signed on with Kelly Loeffler’s 2020 Senate campaign.

He’s now working on behalf of the super PAC that is trying to pull Herschel Walker across the finish line in Tuesday’s Senate runoff.

On the final installment of Georgia week’s series of #pods, Lawson chats about the different dynamics between the 2021 and 2022 Georgia runoff, the yawning gap between the popularity of Donald Trump versus Brian Kemp and whether another Republican would’ve been a better option than Walker.

PLUS:

My newly dropped piece on McClatchyDC on where Democrats flagged Warnock’s problem areas.

“There was a lack of presence of showing up and there was also a feeling that this is kind of metro Atlanta Warnock and metro Atlanta [Stacey] Abrams and our issues aren’t as front and center to some of those folks,” said Garrett. “The funny thing is that Herschel Walker is such a historically bad candidate that a lot of those people didn’t show up the first time around, because … there was some disbelief that he could win.”

Read it HERE.

Press play above or throw some stars to the #pod Spotify or Apple Podcasts.

More #GApol POD listening:

The embarrassment vote boosting Warnock

The risk of Herschel Walker

The future of Georgia’s runoff election

Upgrade your subscription.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davidcatanese.substack.com/subscribe

Georgia-week on the #pod continues with Cyrus Garrett, the Democratic strategist who ran Southern states for Joe Biden in 2020 and is now advising outside entities trying to lift Raphael Warnock to victory over Herschel Walker in next Tuesday’s U.S. Senate runoff.

Remember, Cyrus told loyal listeners back in early October where this was heading.

Listen: Georgia is ‘going to head to a runoff’

In this pod, Garrett chats about why Warnock fell just short of avoiding a runoff on Nov. 8, why brand new young voters are showing up to vote in this runoff and what the runoff’s outcome could mean for 2024 in the Peach State.

“They’re embarrassed by Walker, they are completely embarrassed by the image of him being a state representative or him being a male, him being a father … They didn’t believe that this guy who could barely put a sentence together could actually win,” says Garrett.

Also, note when I’m referring to southeastern counties in Georgia, I’m actually talking about southwestern counties. My (repeated) mistake in the audiocast, as you’ll hear. Geography fail, but the point is we’re talking about outstate voters south of ATL.

Press play above for the full conversation …

Or listen on Spotify or Apple Podcasts

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davidcatanese.substack.com/subscribe

Nabilah Islam is the first Muslim woman and the youngest woman ever elected to the state Senate in Georgia, after winning her Democratic primary by 77 votes and then surviving the closest state Senate general election contest in the state this year.

In the #pod, the 32-year-old Islam chats about how suburban minority communities have gradually changed Georgia’s political composition, what happened to Stacey Abrams and why Raphael Warnock is the favorite in next week’s runoff election against Herschel Walker.

“I don’t think we have enough inspired Republicans to come back out during a runoff election,” Islam says. “I think that if they had picked a different candidate, instead of Herschel Walker, this might not have been a runoff.”

Press play and listen to the entire conversation above.

Or listen on Spotify or Apple Podcasts

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davidcatanese.substack.com/subscribe

Molly Jong-Fast, the host of the Fast Politics podcast and Vanity Fair special correspondent joins the #pod to comb through the aftermath of the 2022 midterms and then walks the bridge to 2024.

We cover whether the media whiffed on its 2022 coverage, dive into whether the result is truly validating for Joe Biden and then peak around the corner to whether Democrats should welcome another run with The Donald.

Press play above …

Or listen on Spotify or Apple Podcasts

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davidcatanese.substack.com/subscribe

If you’re here, you know where the results of #Election2022 stand, you’ve read the takes, refreshed the results pages and combed through the initial finger-pointing and excuses. So I wanted to take Friday to zone in on a single race that hasn’t yet been called but has immense consequences for the country’s politics.

Listen *above*.

Also on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, where you can leave me some stars. Or click play *above*.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davidcatanese.substack.com/subscribe

I first met Billy Long 13 years ago when I was a local television reporter covering politics and he became a candidate for Congress in southwest Missouri.

Long is now retiring after six terms as a U.S. House member representing Springfield, Mo., a place I called home for five years before venturing to D.C.

He ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate this year and in this #pod, the former auctioneer talks about the challenges of a multi-candidate primary, his challenge in chasing an endorsement of former President Donald Trump, the friends he made on the Democratic side of the aisle, his relationships with Sens. Rick Scott, Josh Hawley and former Speaker John Boehner, and of course his 2022 and 2024 election predictions.

It makes for perfect Election Day listening as you sit around and wait, wait, wait … for results.

Also on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, where you can leave me some stars. Or click play *above*.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davidcatanese.substack.com/subscribe

Ye, or the artist formerly known as Kanye West, is my favorite artist of all time and has been one of the most powerful forces in my life. His music moves me, his design wows me, his ambition inspires me and his raw authenticity impresses me.

It’s always been tough being a Kanye fan and trying to defend him and rationalize his outbursts and meltdowns as the musings of a misunderstood genius.

But the latest anti-Semitic eruption crossed a rubicon that has bled his brand, stained his image and left even his most loyal, rabid fans wondering if it’s still possible to place him on a pedestal.

Before I spoke to anyone else about Ye’s fulminations, I wanted to convene and commiserate with Kanye fans. I found two in a Twitter group — one from Canada and another from Wisconsin — who wanted to share their conflicting thoughts and talk through whether Ye — and we — can survive this moment.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davidcatanese.substack.com/subscribe

Toss the polls aside, people are early voting in droves.

As of midday Thursday, 476,000 votes have been reported in battleground Nevada, per King Jon Ralston’s analysis, with Democrats holding only a 1.5% lead statewide.

Chuck Warren, a Republican operative, radio host and the managing director of the September Group, says that’s a flashing red light since Democrats are more inclined to vote early while Republicans hold back until Election Day.

“Those early voting numbers are poor for Democrats,” says Warren. “About half your GOP vote is going to show up on Election Day … So if the Democrats don’t have a high single-digit lead, or low double digits, they’re doomed, they’re done.”

There are still five days of early vote that can still be tabulated, so there’s always the possibility of a Democratic surge, but the early indications don’t look good for incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto.

Also in the #pod, we chat about the possibilities of ticket-splitters, whether Sen. Mark Kelly can survive a wave if Kari Lake is cruising in the governor’s race over Katie Hobbs, and if Hobbs could’ve done anything differently as she looks headed to a likely loss in Arizona.

“Kari campaigns with her fist out, punching you in the face…Katie Hobbs is an intellectual lightweight.”

Listen **above** or on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, where you can leave rave reviews. As always, share if you enjoy.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davidcatanese.substack.com/subscribe

Marjorie Taylor Greene isn’t as crazy or stupid as you think she is.

Robert Draper, author of “Weapons of Mass Delusion: When The Republican Party Lost Its Mind,” learned this after chasing an interview with the provocative Republican Georgia congresswoman for more than a year.

His persistence proved successful and Greene sits at the center of his latest book on the ascendant set of characters that have spawned out of Donald Trump’s movement.

“She has shown a level of strategic savvy that’s been hiding in plain sight,” Draper tells me in this #pod that examines her expeditious rise within the MAGA universe.

Now, as Republicans sit on the doorstep of reclaiming the U.S. House, the incendiary Greene is positioned to become one of the most dominant voices of the next two years whether Kevin McCarthy likes it or not.

How McCarthy handles Greene and vice versa will go a long way in explaining the story of the GOP in 2023 and into 2024, when Greene would love to be selected as Trump’s new running mate.

She even acknowledges that’s unlikely. But the incentives to pay homage to the king sit in plain sight.

Also in the #pod, Draper dishes on how Greene reacted to his book, her surprising media diet and how she could impact Mitch McConnell’s reign as Senate GOP leader.

Listen **above** or on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, where you can leave ratings. As always, share if you enjoy.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davidcatanese.substack.com/subscribe

Prognosticators have ticked up their assessment of potential Republicans gains in the U.S. House to two dozen seats, and some GOP operatives believe it could even extend beyond that, producing a true “wave” election.

But even if Democrats sustain those losses in 12 days, Democratic operative Kelly Burton doesn’t believe all is lost for her party. The president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee and former executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee joins the #pod to explain why she thinks a slate of redistricting battles has made House seats more fair and competitive over the long run.

Burton also discusses early Election Night bellwether House races to keep an eye on, how the Republican cash advantage in the House is expanding the 2022 map and ticks off the states that could see their House districts revised again ahead of 2024, keeping the House scrambled, and as I put it, #chaotic.

Listen above …. or on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, where you can generously assign a beautiful rating.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davidcatanese.substack.com/subscribe