Top of Mind

In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, to get her take on what’s happening in the housing economy. Selma shares her views on inflation vs. recession risk, talks about how climate change and geopolitical dynamics are impacting the housing market, and looks at which drivers will finally help increase inventory for home buyers. She also highlights what surprised her about the economy in 2022, and what to watch for this year.

About Selma Hepp

Selma Hepp is the Chief Economist for CoreLogic, America’s largest provider of advanced property and ownership information, analytics and data-enabled services. Selma leads the economics team, which is responsible for analyzing, interpreting and forecasting housing and economic trends in real estate, mortgage and insurance.

Prior to joining CoreLogic in 2020, Selma was Chief Economist and Vice President of Business Intelligence for Pacific Union International, later acquired by Compass, where she oversaw the vital economic and technology intelligence to drive the expanding brokerage’s success. Selma also held the role of Chief Economist for Trulia; Senior Economist for the California Association of Realtors; and Economist and Manager for Public Policy and Homeownership research for the National Association of Realtors, as well as a special research assistant at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Selma frequently appears on local and national radio and television programs and has been widely quoted in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and many industry trade publications such as National Mortgage News and HousingWire. Selma received the HousingWire Women of Influence Award in 2022. She has served as president of the Los Angeles chapter of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), NABE Real Estate Roundtable co-chair, Board member of the International Student Exchange Program, Advisory Board member of the REALTOR® University Research Center Editorial Review and a Member of the Housing Policy Debate Editorial Advisory Board. Selma held a Real Estate Associate professional license in Florida and Virginia. Selma graduated from the State University of New York, Buffalo with an M.A. in Economics and holds a Ph.D. from the University of Maryland.

Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn: 

• Why inflation is a bigger risk to the housing market than recession is
• What’s happening with first-time homebuyers
• Why the Ukraine war creates risk in the US housing market
• Climate change and CoreLogic’s new climate risk platform
• Which drivers will finally help increase inventory for home buyers
• How small investors increasing market share over big institutional money
• Whether vacant offices can be converted into affordable housing?

Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research

A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

• Selma Hepp on LinkedIn
• Selma Hepp on Twitter
• CoreLogic
• CoreLogic Office of the Chief Economist
• Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn
• Altos Research

Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights:

https://twitter.com/altosresearch

https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen

See you next week!

In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Nick Bunker, Director of North American Economic Research at Indeed, for a deep dive into the employment trends that are driving today’s housing market. Nick offers his take on how the strong labor market may mitigate recession risk, what’s happening with wage growth and what this means for housing affordability, and how we know remote work is here to stay. He also gives us a behind-the-scenes look at the data Indeed uses to see trends before they hit the headlines.

About Nick Bunker

Nick Bunker is the Director of North American Economic Research at Indeed. He’s a labor economist with extensive experience discovering insights into economic data and communicating them to a variety of audiences. He’s also a widely-cited labor market commentator whose analysis has been used by The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, NPR, NBC, CBS, and others.

Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn: 

• Whether today’s strong labor market will help us escape a recession
• Which specific signals to watch to know if we’re going to avoid a recession
• What Indeed data tells us before the rest of the economic headlines
• What’s happening with wage growth, what to expect, and why this matters
• Why tech layoffs aren’t necessarily a leading indicator for the broader economy
• What recent wage growth means for housing affordability
• How we know remote work is here to stay and what that means for housing

Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research

A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

• Nick Bunker on LinkedIn
• Nick Bunker on Twitter
• Indeed
• Indeed Hiring Lab
• Indeed Hiring Lab’s Real-Time Job Posting Data
• Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn
• Altos Research

Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights:

https://twitter.com/altosresearch

https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen

See you next week!

In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Dr. Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist with Zillow's Economic Research team, to talk about what’s on the horizon for the housing market this year. Dr. Divounguy shares the latest findings from Zillow’s monthly market report, reveals which markets dominated Zillow’s “hot markets” list, and offers his perspective on recession risk, construction trends, and more. He also explains why a debt ceiling showdown in Congress could slam the brakes on the housing market.

About Dr. Orphe Divounguy

Dr. Orphe Divounguy is a Senior Economist with Zillow's Economic Research team. His columns have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, CNN Business, USA Today, the Chicago Tribune, Crain’s Chicago Business, and other major publications. Dr. Divounguy is also a frequent television and radio guest with appearances on CBS, ABC, Fox, and other stations across the nation.

The team’s research can be found at https://zillow.com/research and includes analyses about for-sale and rental market dynamics, fair housing, and other topics. Zillow also provides dozens of housing market datasets freely available for download at https://zillow.com/data.

Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn: 

• The latest findings from Zillow’s monthly market report
• Why affordability will make or break the housing market this year
• Which markets dominate Zillow’s “hot markets” list and why
• Orphe’s frameworks for understanding recession risk and construction trends
• Why homes in risky climate areas might actually increase in price in the future
• One surprising risk that might spike mortgage rates this spring

Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research

A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

• Dr. Orphe Divounguy on LinkedIn
• Dr. Orphe Divounguy on Twitter
• Zillow
• Zillow Research
• “Mortgage Rates Fall as New Data Backs up Falling Inflation, but Debt Fight Could Roil Market”
• Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn
• Altos Research

Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights:

https://twitter.com/altosresearch

https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen

See you next week!

In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Clayton Collins, Founder and CEO of HW Media, to talk about the big trends shaping the 2023 real estate and mortgage markets. Clayton offers his vision for how real estate professionals can better access information, shares the inside scoop on what mortgage executives are preparing for in 2023, and tees up the key tech trends coming this year. He also explains why he’s optimistic for the second half of the year.

About Clayton Collins

Clayton Collins is the Founder and CEO of HW Media. He leads HW Media’s corporate strategy and content roadmap while building a world-class team of business media professionals. He is also the Managing Partner of Riomar Capital, an entrepreneurial investment firm that acquired HousingWire in 2016. Prior to founding Riomar Capital, Clayton worked at RBC Capital Markets in the mergers and acquisitions group and served as Vice President of National Sales and Marketing at Citibank. Clayton holds a degree in business administration from Elon University and completed his MBA at The Fuqua School of Business at Duke University.

Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:

• Clayton Collins’ vision for how to get real estate professionals better access to information
• What the mortgage executives are saying about 2023
• Why an economic recession could be *good* for housing
• What opportunities Clayton sees for first-time home buyers in this market
• The surprising gap between mortgage company headcount and transaction volume
• The most important mortgage technology innovations to pay attention to
• Whether single-family rental investors might exacerbate or mitigate this housing recession
• Why Clayton’s optimistic for the second half of 2023

Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research

A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

• Clayton Collins on LinkedIn | Twitter | Instagram

HW Media

Housing News podcast

“How the Fed Is Reshaping America” with Nick Timiraos

Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn

Altos Research

Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights:

https://twitter.com/altosresearch

https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen

See you next week!

In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Mark Fleming, Chief Economist for First American Financial Corporation, to talk about the major market dynamics that will shape the real estate market in 2023. Mark discusses which economic factors may impact 2023, shares his take on inflation, mortgage rates, and the likelihood of recession, and talks about which leading indicators he’s watching for market shifts. He also provides some insights on affordability and home-buying power.

About Mark Fleming

Mark Fleming serves as the Chief Economist for First American Financial Corporation, a premier provider of title, settlement, and risk solutions for real estate transactions and the leader in the digital transformation of its industry. In this role, he leads an economics team responsible for analysis, commentary, and forecasting trends in the real estate and mortgage markets.

Mark's research expertise primarily includes real estate and urban economics, applied econometrics, and mortgage risk. As a trusted and influential voice with 20 years of experience in the mortgage and property information business, Mark is frequently quoted by national news outlets and industry trade publications, such as The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and HousingWire, and he is a regular guest on high-profile broadcast news channels, including CBS, CNBC, Fox Business News, and NPR.

Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn: 

• Which economic factors may impact 2023, and two of the leading indicators Mark Fleming’s watching
• Whether we should expect a recession in 2023
• How to analyze the inflation data (and why service sector inflation is key)
• Why rates might rise from here
• Why looking at when home prices will fall may be more important than by how much

What the First American Real Home Price Index tells us about buying power 

Why lower available inventory of homes is the new normal

What’s likely to happen with the shortage of housing in the US

Why affordability has improved so much over the decade, and how much affordability the pandemic boom “gave back”

Mark’s long-term view for residential real estate in the US

Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research

A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

• Mark Fleming on LinkedIn
• Mark Fleming on Twitter
• First American Financial Corporation
• Mark Fleming | First American Financial Corporation
• First American Real House Price Index
• The REconomy Podcast
• Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn
• Altos Research

Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights:

https://twitter.com/altosresearch

https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen

See you next week!

In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research and a Managing Principal at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, to talk about what to expect in the real estate market in 2023. Rick discusses the company’s latest research on homebuilder sentiment, shares their latest forecast for home prices and the economy, and talks about some secret signals to watch for changes in the market.

About Rick Palacios Jr.

Rick Palacios Jr. is the Director of Research and a Managing Principal at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, where he oversees all research pertaining to the US economy, for-sale housing, and rental markets.

Rick has 15 years of experience in residential real estate and economic research, originally joining John Burns Real Estate Consulting in 2006 and then rejoining the company in 2014 after working as a home builder Equity Research Associate at Morgan Stanley in New York. He has also worked as an Analyst at the Milken Institute, an economic think tank.

Rick holds a BA from the University of California, Irvine, and an MS in real estate economics and finance from the London School of Economics.

Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn: 

• Why new home construction might accelerate the housing market slump
• How much home prices are likely to decline in the next two years
• The leading indicators (and secret signals!) to watch for changes in the market
• What’s happening with the second home market now
• The surprising impact of ARMs in this cycle

Featuring Mike Simonsen, CEO of Altos Research

A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

• Rick Palacios Jr. on LinkedIn
• Rick Palacios Jr. on Twitter
• John Burns Real Estate Consulting
• John Burns Real Estate Consulting on Twitter
• Odd Lots Podcast
• Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn
• Altos Research

Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights:

https://twitter.com/altosresearch

https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen

See you next week!

In this episode of the Top of Mind Podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Charles McKinney, Co-founder and CEO of Vontive, to talk about the landscape for real estate investors in this volatile market. Vontive sees loan data from thousands of real estate investors, which gives them unique and real-time insight into how investors act in this market.

Charles gives his outlook for real estate investment in 2023 and beyond, discusses some of the risks and opportunities for investors in the current market, and highlights technology trends he’s excited about. He also shares some eye-opening findings about investor sentiment from Vontive’s recent nationwide housing and economic survey.

About Charles McKinney

Charles McKinney is the Co-founder and CEO of Vontive, a new digital way to finance investment properties, with a white-label solution that empowers any business serving real estate investors to launch its own investment-property mortgage business in 1-2 weeks.

Charles is a real estate and mortgage analytics pioneer. He started his work with Freddie Mac, led analytics at the real estate investor portal Auction.com, and is a pretty prolific real estate investor in his own right.

Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn: 

• Whether investors are optimistic or pessimistic about real estate in 2023
• What happens to real estate investor business models when the Fed’s policy shifts from easy money to tighter policy
• What the future looks like for small real estate investors as big Wall Street money is gaining market share
• How landlords are getting creative with rental business models, and how business models may have to shift in the future with more expensive capital
• Trends in short-term rentals and other innovations in real estate
• How technology innovations remove cost and friction from loan transactions

Featuring Mike Simonsen, CEO of Altos Research

A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

• Charles McKinney on LinkedIn
• Vontive
• Rebuilt
• Ken Corsini HGTV
• Red Capital Lending
• Certain Lending
• Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn
• Altos Research

Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights:

https://twitter.com/altosresearch

https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen

See you next week!

In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Clark Woodward, Founder and CEO of RedZone, to discuss how wildfire and other climate risks are creating new existential challenges for the housing market. Clark talks about the changing landscape for disaster insurance, shares how homeowners should think about climate risk in the coming decades, and offers hope for the future through new technology and policy innovations.

About Clark Woodwards 

Clark Woodward is the Founder and CEO of RedZone, the leading expert on wildfire analytics and the impact of wildfires on homes and businesses. RedZone aggregates natural disaster response data and provides a platform for companies to easily understand and develop the appropriate response to protect their assets. Clark is a firefighter, a data scientist, and an entrepreneur, so he has the perfect combination of expertise to tackle this incredibly important and timely issue.

Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn: 

• How homeowners should think about climate risk in the coming decades
• Which elements of climate change are most impactful to wildfires
• How insurance is changing with regards to disasters and climate change
• Why it’s so hard to properly promote forest health
• The latest data science innovations for predicting wildfire probabilities
• The most promising technologies for preventing home damage and loss
• How new building standards and technologies implemented in Florida made a difference in mitigating damage and loss from Hurricane Ian 
• What he’s most optimistic about, and what keeps him up at night

Featuring Mike Simonsen, CEO of Altos Research

A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

• Clark Woodward on LinkedIn
• RedZone
• Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn
• Altos Research

Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights:

https://twitter.com/altosresearch

https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen

See you next week!

In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Nick Timiraos, Chief Economics Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, to talk about how the Fed makes its policy decisions and why these decisions are rocking today’s financial and housing markets. Nick tells the story of the Fed’s remarkable odyssey to save the US economy as the pandemic hit, gives an inside look at the Fed’s decision-making mechanics, busts some common myths about the Fed’s intentions for real estate, and offers a glimpse of what might come next.

About Nick Timiraos 

Nick Timiraos is the Chief Economics Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and is based in Washington. He is responsible for covering the Federal Reserve and other major developments in US economic policy. He’s also the Author of Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell and the Fed Battled a President and a Pandemic — And Prevented Economic Disaster.

Prior to his current position, Nick covered the Treasury Department, fiscal policy, and broader economic and labor market issues. Before that, he wrote about US housing and mortgage markets as a reporter based in New York. His coverage included the government's response to the foreclosure crisis and the takeover of finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In 2008, Nick contributed to the journal's presidential election coverage and traveled with the campaign of then-Senator Barack Obama. He joined the journal in 2006 and is a graduate of Georgetown University.

Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:

• The story behind the extraordinary lengths the Fed went to in order to save the US economy as the pandemic hit
• How Fed policy impacted the housing market during the pandemic
• Where the Fed went wrong in 2021
• What the Fed is likely to do with interest rates next year
• What the Fed’s goal for housing actually is
• How to look at the inflation numbers like the Fed to help see future policy decisions now
• How the Fed might embrace new data and more real-time data to make better policy decisions
• Whether the trend of de-globalization will derail or preserve American prosperity
• How the Fed might react to challenges facing the dollar from threats like cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin
• Whether the Fed will step in to help resuscitate the housing market if it crashes too hard in 2023

Featuring Mike Simonsen, CEO of Altos Research

A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

• Nick Timiraos on LinkedIn
• Nick Timiraos | The Wall Street Journal
• Nick Timiraos on Twitter
• Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell and the Fed Battled a President and a Pandemic — And Prevented Economic Disaster by Nick Timiraos
• Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn
• Altos Research

Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights:

https://twitter.com/altosresearch

https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen

See you next week!

In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Dr. Jenny Schuetz, Senior Fellow at Brookings Metro, to talk about the impact of policy on the housing market. Dr. Schuetz provides insights into how policy can help make housing more affordable, which cities and states are doing a good job with housing policy, and reasons to be optimistic about fixing our housing crisis. She also shares some of the key findings from her recent book: Fixer-Upper: How to Repair America’s Broken Housing Systems.

About Jenny Schuetz

Dr. Jenny Schuetz is a Senior Fellow at Brookings Metro and is an expert in urban economics and housing policy. She has written numerous peer-reviewed journal articles on land use regulation, housing prices, urban amenities, and neighborhood change. Dr. Schuetz has appeared in The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, the PBS NewsHour, The Indicator podcast, Vox, and Slate.

Dr. Schuetz is the Author of Fixer Upper: How to Repair America's Broken Housing Systems. Topics of recent research include: how statewide zoning reform could improve housing affordability, local strategies to help renters during the COVID-19 crisis, rethinking homeownership incentives to narrow the racial wealth gap, and how housing costs exacerbate economic and racial segregation.

Before joining Brookings, Dr. Schuetz served as a Principal Economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. She was also an Assistant Professor at the University of Southern California and a Postdoctoral Fellow at NYU Furman. Dr. Schuetz is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at GWU’s Center for Washington Area Studies and teaches in Georgetown’s urban planning program.

Dr. Schuetz earned a PhD in public policy from Harvard University, a master’s in city planning from MIT, and a bachelor’s with highest distinction in economics and political and social thought from the University of Virginia.

Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:

• Which policies have contributed the most to the current housing inventory crisis?
• How policy can help make housing more affordable
• The challenges caused by using homes as a source of wealth
• How we should be thinking about climate risk and housing
• Which cities and states are doing a good job with housing policy?
• Reasons to be optimistic about fixing our housing crisis

Featuring Mike Simonsen, CEO of Altos Research

A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

• Dr. Jenny Schuetz on LinkedIn
• Dr. Jenny Schuetz on Twitter
• Brookings Metro
• Fixer Upper: How to Repair America's Broken Housing Systems by Jenny Schuetz
• Homelessness Is a Housing Problem: How Structural Factors Explain U.S. Patterns by Gregg Colburn and Clayton Page Aldern
• Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn
• Altos Research

Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights:

https://twitter.com/altosresearch

https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen

See you next week!