Trend Line

Welcome back to our first episode since we broke for the summer. We open the show with the latest Nanos ballot tracking in which the Conservatives have not only widened their lead, but something significant has happened between the Liberals and NDP.

CTV News' Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos discuss what this could mean for the governing minority Liberals and the timing for the next election. Nik also goes region by region to share his latest seat projections -- how popular support for each party would translate into seats if an election were to be held today. There are some significant changes worth paying attention to in places like the national capital region and B.C.'s Lower Mainland.

CREDITS

Host: Michael Stittle
Guest: Nik Nanos
Producers: Phil Hahn, Jesse Tahirali and Dell Rasmussen
Editor:  Jesse Tahirali

After a stunning Toronto byelection victory by the Conservatives, pollster Nik Nanos looks at what other ridings across the country -- currently in Liberal hands -- might be taken away by Pierre Poiliever's party if an election were held today.

Nik and host Michael Stittle also discuss how Canadians are feeling right now about their economic future, and should things turn brighter before the next election, what that could mean politically for Justin Trudeau's leadership.

This is our last episode before we break for the summer. Thank you for watching, and we'll be back in the fall.

HOST:  Michael Stittle
GUEST: Nik Nanos
PRODUCERS:  Phil Hahn and Patrick Rail
EDITOR: Jesse Tahirali

Note:   In the discussion on Liberal support in Alberta, Michael Stittle mentioned Anne McGrath. He meant Anne McLelland, the former Liberal cabinet minister. Anne McGrath was the NDP national director.

With a big test for the Liberals coming up later this month in a federal byelection, host Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos talk about what the results need to be to ramp up -- or tamp down -- the conservation over Justin Trudeau's leadership.

Nik and Michael also discuss a recent survey about how Canadians feel about who should lead the Liberals in the next election.  And finally, will the Liberals be successful in making the capital gains tax into a wedge issue against the Conservatives?

CREDITS:

Host: Michael Stittle

Guest: Nik Nanos

Producers:  Phil Hahn and Patrick Rail

Editor: Jesse Tahirali

CTV News' Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos break down the latest tracking data from Nanos Research that shows Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives continue to hold a double-digit lead over Justin Trudeau's Liberals.

But a different Nanos survey that looks into the leaders' credibility in Canadians' eyes is hardly flattering for either. In fact, Nik says the results are quite 'brutal' for both Trudeau and Poilievre.  
 
Michael and Nik also react to the increasing combativeness and lack of decorum during question period in the House of Commons. Are the blows landing with Canadians or is the communications approach misguided?

Finally, a dim view of the economy continues to impact the popularities of leaders in both Canada and the United States. Nik says that negative consumer confidence and 'joyless prosperity' is a big problem for incumbent governments -– and it could become a big problem for U.S. President Joe Biden.

CREDITS:

Host: Michael Stittle

Guest: Nik Nanos

Producers:  Phil Hahn and Patrick Rail

Editor: Jesse Tahirali

When it comes to Canadians' pocketbooks, pollster Nik Nanos says he hasn't seen this much pessimism in a very long time.

Nik and Trend Line host Michael Stittle also discuss how Canadians are divided over the capital gains tax and its effect on investments, as well as how delaying the tax until end of June could result in a short-term windfall for the federal Liberals.

Also, what do the Liberals have to do to reverse their negative trend line when it comes to popular support, and what do the Conservatives have to do to keep theirs positive?

CREDITS:

Host: Michael Stittle

Guest: Nik Nanos

Producers: Phil Hahn and Patrick Rail

Editor: Jesse Tahirali

Pessimism and anger towards the federal government is at an all-time high, according to Nanos tracking. Pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle discuss the challenge this poses for the Liberals in the lead-up to an election.  Also, what are the major issues Canadians are worried about, and did the federal budget address them?

CREDITS:

Host: Michael Stittle

Guest: Nik Nanos

Producers:  Phil Hahn, Patrick Rail

Editor: Jesse Tahirali

After months of the Conservatives enjoying a clear advantage in popular support over the Liberals, the latest Nanos ballot tracking shows Pierre Poilievre's party went from a 20-point lead to a 12-point lead.  

Pollster Nik Nanos and Trend Line host Michael Stittle discuss possible reasons behind the Conservative drop, and what might Quebec have to do with it?  

Nik and Michael also discuss Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's war of words with the premiers over the carbon tax. 

CREDITS:

HOST: Michael Stittle

GUEST: Nik Nanos

PRODUCERS: Phil Hahn, Patrick Rail

EDITOR:  Jesse Tahirali

Will a soft NDP vote benefit the Liberals in the next federal election? 

Pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle discuss what the NDP is doing to differentiate itself from the Liberals, after two years of propping them up in Parliament. Also, why Liberal support might actually be higher than the national numbers indicate, and what the 'true' Conservative advantage is over the Liberals.  

And as Canadians pay their respects to late prime minister Brian Mulroney, Nik and Michael rewind to 1988 when the Progressive Conservative leader was seeking reelection. His party was trailing the Liberals in the polls but managed to turn it around. 

CREDITS:

Host: Michael Stittle

Guest: Nik Nanos

Producers:  Phil Hahn and Patrick Rail

Editor:  Jesse Tahirali

CTV News' Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos look at new numbers showing the federal Conservatives have opened up a 20-point lead over the Liberals – will it hold up?

Then, there was a federal byelection in Durham, Ont. Nik says the CPC victory was never in doubt, but we did learn something else that should be interesting to the Liberals. 

Also, there’s a federal budget on the horizon – Nik says it’s another chance for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to change the channel and stem the LPC polling slump. 

Finally, we have new data on how Canadians feel about the standard of living for the next generation – and the numbers are dismal.  

CREDITS:

Host: Michael Stittle

Guest: Nik Nanos

Producers:  Phil Hahn and Patrick Rail

Editor: Jesse Tahirali

Pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle discuss Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives increasing their support as the party Canadians would vote for, while the Liberals are in a statistical tie with the New Democrats.

Poilievre's personal numbers continue to trend sharply upwards while his party saw a 17-point advantage over the federal Liberals in the new Nanos tracking.

CREDITS:

Host: Michael Stittle

Guest: Nik Nanos

Producers:  Phil Hahn, Patrick Rail

Editor:  Jesse Tahirali