True Potential Morning Markets

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at the recent UK inflation print which shows Headline CPI at 2.6%, down from 2.8% in March. This moderation coupled with the cooling labour market has set market expectations for three interest rate cuts from the Bank of England in 2025 of 0.75%

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, looks at the mixed messages coming from UK employment data and the strength of wage growth in both the private and public sector. This presents a headwind to the Bank of England as the jobs data doesn’t support their desire to cut interest rates.

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks to the week ahead, which has updates on UK and European inflation data and interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, is joined by Paul Durrans, Investment Director, and George Bell, Portfolio Manager to discuss the volatility in markets after the ‘liberation day’ tariff announcements and the subsequent rollback on the decision with the exclusion of China. The team also discuss how they are taking action to tackle the current market volatility.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, reflects on the surprise announcement of an almost blanket 90-day delay on US tariffs, with the exception of China. US equities have had a strong positive response to the news, with the S&P 500 up almost 10% in one day.

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, covers the market reaction to President Trump raising tariffs on Chinese imports to a total of 104%. With further commentary on the inflationary backdrop in the UK and Europe, could oil pricing be the catalyst for interest rate cuts?

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, looks at the continuing market volatility caused by US tariffs and how the Investment Management team are adjusting the True Potential Portfolio’s with a focus on reducing US equity exposure and increasing our fixed income allocation.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks back at last week, which saw a significant drop in the stock market, following the US liberation day tariff policy coming into effect. US economic aggression appears to be bringing the wider world together, with trade talks between Europe and China already underway, but investors are concerned that the current trajectory of US policy could send them and perhaps the global economy into a recession.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, and Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, look at the recent tariff announcements from President Trump, the global trade implications and the market reaction to the unexpected magnitude of the policy. They also look into the impacts of the policies on the consumer and the importance of diversification to investors during times of increased volatility.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks at the market effects of yesterday’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs, Trump’s aims of weakening the dollar to forge trade deals and revitalise US manufacturing, and the potential for the US losing its reserve currency status