True Potential Morning Markets

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, looks into the Bank of Japan’s decision to hold interest rates at 0.5%, the focus of the central banks discussion surrounding President Trump’s tariffs, and analyst expectations of interest rate hikes later this year.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, details a shift in economic growth forecasts, with the US being revised lower following consecutive weaker data prints and tariff uncertainty. In contrast to this, analysts have been quick to revise higher growth forecasts for Germany, given the prospect of significant fiscal spending on defence and infrastructure, and China, who are displaying more stability to their economic trajectory.

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at the US inflation report which came in cooler than expected last week and saw US Treasuries make positive returns. In contrast, the ongoing and wide reaching tariff policy from President Trump is having negative effects across several major economies and weighing heavy on market sentiment.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments and Sam Elliot, Investment Analyst, look at a global market still dominated by tariffs, or the threats of tariffs, with falls in most major equity indexes. In the UK the GDP print paints a picture of contraction and with the Spring Budget less than two weeks away, the pressure is on Chancellor Rachel Reeves to improve economic growth.

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, breaks down why US inflation has come in below market expectations and how falling energy prices are a part of it. However, with ongoing tariffs from the Trump administration, the path of inflation remains blurred by trade uncertainty.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks at the historical bounce back of markets during times of volatility and the importance of the bond market in advanced diversification.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, looks at the significant impact President Trump has had on US stock markets since taking office, and Delta Air Lines have cut their earnings expectations in half, with consumers dialing back on spending intentions amidst the economic uncertainty. 

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, reflects on a week which saw global equities down, and as we look to the week ahead, markets will be paying close attention US inflation reports and sentiment data to detect the first signs of expected cost increases brought on by tariffs.

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, and Joe Forward, Investment Analyst, look at a week which has seen increased market volatility which is has largely been driven by US policy. In Europe, Germany has made major changes to its fiscal spending rules after the US withdrew aid for Ukraine which is shifting market sentiment.

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at the largest move in European bond markets in 28 years, the causes behind it, and big winners behind the 2.15% advance in European equities.