True Potential Morning Markets

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, looks at the UK inflation figure which came in at 3%, above analyst expectations. Chris breaks down the main driving components behind the rise and the asset market reaction.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks into the UK labour market data which has surprised to the upside for wages, rising 5.9% and payrolls adding 22,000. The Bank of England's concern however is that elevated wage growth runs the risk of keeping inflation above the target with expectations of a 2.8% figure tomorrow with potential to rise to 3.7% by Q3

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, brings the focus onto UK markets with inflation and jobs data releasing this week. The UK and Europe is seeing record highs in stock markets but expectations for UK unemployment to reach levels not seen since 2017 could present a challenge for the Bank of England. Compounding this is market expectations for UK headline inflation to rise to 2.8% this week which explains a cautious approach from the central bank in lowering interest rates.

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy and Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, look at the strength in global equities being led by Europe, as well as the drivings factors behind the rise of US inflation. Fourth quarter GDP figures for the UK also surprised to the upside but growth still remain a challenge for the Labour government.

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, looks into the surprise US inflation data, what is driving it and what it means about the direction of US interest rates. There was also a surprise for UK economic growth and the potential for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine 

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, covers the all time equity highs seen in the UK, Germany and Italy this week with the US within touching distance of new highs. Reduced market volatility with expected economic data prints is setting the stage for further growth expectations as market confidence grows.

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, reviews the strength of Global stock markets. Reflecting on the winners and losers from Trump's 25% tariff on Steel and Aluminium imports. George also reviews consumer expectations of inflation over the next 12 months ahead of Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell's, semi-annual Testimony of Monetary Policy in Congress. 

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, reflects on robust US jobs data from last week which was quickly overshadowed by further tariff announcements from President Trump. Markets will continue to react to any further tariff announcements and the risks this poses to renewed inflation pressures. Paul discussed the latest survey data which has consumers expecting inflation to trend above 4% over the next 12 months.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments and Joe Forward, Investment Analyst, break down the Bank of England’s decision to lower interest rates while halving growth projections for the UK in 2025. Inflation in the UK is now not expected to hit the 2% target until 2027 yet the UK stock market has reached another round of all-time highs. 

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks at the highly expected interest rate cut from the Bank of England today. The question still remains though on whether the central bank needs to be more aggressive with cuts? Economist's initial perspectives of an expansionary budget in October have shifted to a contractionary view and many believe more fiscal tightening is on the horizon.