True Potential Morning Markets

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at how the ongoing strength of the US economy and the acceleration of business activity has caused further weakness in US government bonds. The moves suggest that the Federal Reserve may have to press pause on lowering interest rates.

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at the global market reaction to further developments on Trump's tariff policies and what it could mean for US technology companies. George also covers further economic data points for the US on manufacturing as well as a look ahead to the Federal Reserve speeches and what to expect.

As we move into 2025, Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, reviews 2024 asset markets with a look at equities and fixed income as well as a look ahead to interest rate cut expectations for major central banks.

In our final video of the year, Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments and Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, reflect on the last twelve months in markets. They also discuss what the upcoming year may bring with  President Elect Donald Trump and how US policy could shape global markets.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, looks at the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% and the impact that this and the 2025 policy revisions have had on bond and equity markets.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks at rising government debt and the implications both in the US and UK given the economic climate of each country. The counterpart to this a fall in private sector debt and how that interplays with government debt laid out through a case study from the US in the the mid 1990’s.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at the latest UK wage growth data which despite a lagging economy, surprised analysts by exceeding expectations. While wage growth is supportive for greater consumption, it is inflationary and if UK inflation figures come in stronger than the expected 2.6%, the market may challenge Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on the current 1% interest rate cut planned in 2025.

This week, Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at the last major week in financial markets before the end of the year which provides insight on Europe and Japan’s PMI data, US inflation and UK employment. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England also have meetings this week with market expectations favouring a 0.25% for the US and for the UK to hold.

This week, Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy and George Bell, Portfolio Manager, cover the European Cenral Bank’s interest rate decision as well as an update on US inflation figures. Staying with America, the team recap the recent NFIB Small business Survey which paints an optimistic picture for US business growth and finish with updates from China on monetary policy.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks back to the start of 2024, the interest rate trajectory of the UK and how that compares to now. Sebastian also puts this into a more global context, examining how European and US central banks have navigated inflation.