True Potential Morning Markets

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, looks at the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which came in at its highest reading since June 2021. The election signalled a major shift in economic policy with hopes for favourable tax and regulation policies which could benefit a broad scope of US business, will this surge of optimism from small business continue? 

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, focuses on China’s economic trajectory after President Xi Jinping promised further measures to reinject life and market optimism into the economy. Since September after an initial round of stimulus measures, investor confidence has faded. China continues to be challenged by both domestic and international issues. Time will tell if the additional measures will be enough to accelerate growth.

This week, Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at a week which sees global equity returns broadening and imminent decisions on interest rates from several major central banks.

This week Paul Durrans, Investment Director and Joe Forward, Investment Analyst, look at key areas that financial markets focused on this week. First the collapse of the French government with the vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Secondly, a look at the raft of economic data coming out of the US which gives insight into America’s economic strength. Lastly, a look ahead to the UK’s upcoming Bank of England meeting where market expectations point to another 0.25% interest rate cut.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, takes a look at the removal of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, the motivations behind the no confidence vote and whether it has had a wider impact on Eurozone markets. In the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that market expectations are aligned with his own on future interest rate cuts in 2025.

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at the US jobs data that came out ahead of market expectations yesterday and the Atlanta Fed projections of 3.2% US growth this quarter. Matt also points out that limited economic growth doesn’t necessarily equate to poor equity performance with some data from Germany.

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, looks at the US manufacturing data which came in yesterday and despite still being in contraction, surpassed market expectations. What are the main drivers behind this improvement and could we be seeing green shoots of recovery for US manufacturing?

As we look to the week ahead, Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, looks at some of the potential outcomes of the ‘austerity’ budget vote in the French parliament. Kevin also looks at the jobs data which dominates the US narrative in the early month and what it says about the US economy as we approach the close of 2024.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments and Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, reflect on the US economy as well as the current economic forecasts for the UK and Eurozone with a particular focus on how Germany and France’s political climates may have economic impacts.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks at the ambitions of Donald Trump achieving a weaker dollar when his proposed policies appear counter intuitive to achieving this. Will the president elect use policy as a negotiating tactic and how will economies respond to these policies?