True Potential Morning Markets

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy looks at the strength in the US equity market driven by Trump’s proposals to cut corporation tax for US companies as well as tax cuts for high earners and lower regulation. Chris also looks at the potential trade tariffs on European goods imported as well as other regions and the market expectation of a rise in US headline inflation for the first time in seven months.

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, discusses the advancements of global stock markets, and key factors that support the health of the UK economy. So far, the US election outcome has been well digested by stock markets but bond markets are trying to digest the prospect of inflationary headwinds given the proposal of higher tariffs. The UK labour market demonstrates resilience in the face of a period of elevated interest rates, unemployment remaining in the lower bounds of history with 220,000 jobs added in Q3 and unemployment rates ticking up only marginally to 4.3% given the increased supply of available workers. For more details on how these changes can impact your money, watch this episode of Morning Markets.

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks to the week ahead which has data on US inflation, with an expectation for headline inflation to drop to 2.4% but core remain at 3.3% due to strong economic growth. Matt also looks at UK GDP and employment data with the latter showing signs of weakness.

This week, Paul Durrans and Sebastian Mackay, Investment Directors, look at the major events over the past nine days and the far reaching implications they could have for markets. From the UK Budget announcement to the US election as well as interest rate cuts from the respective central banks, Paul and Seb dig into the details and what this means for markets.

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at the emerging Republican majority and the impacts this could have on the effectiveness of the Trump cabinets economic policy. We also look at the trajectory of interest rate policy with the upcoming Federal Reserve decision later today.

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at the immediate market reaction following Donald Trumps election victory and how this could shape future economic policy for the Federal Reserve who meet Thursday. Will the US economy continue on its growth trajectory?

With the US election result tomorrow, Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, looks at recent market movements and examines the impact on US assets as well as a look at the recent announcement from OPEC+ on oil supply reduction.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation, looks at the imminent US election and how it is currently affecting markets. While both candidates are not expected to change the US growth outlook, nuances in policy could affect wider markets such as in the UK where the Bank of England has a decision on interest rates. This places them as the first financial institution to have a decision on monetary policy and given the close relation of the US and US, markets will have a keen eye whether they decide to continue with a further 0.25% cut or change course following the budget announcement.

This morning, Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, rounds up the data from the European and US quarterly GDP reports. He covers better-than-expected growth in France and Germany, the strength of the US consumer, and a surprise spike in UK gilt yields as a reaction to yesterday's budget.

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at further evidence from the US that the labour market is cooling as positions advertised but not filled fell to 7.4 million, the lowest since January 2021. The Consumer Confidence Index indicates an optimism about the future and equities remain resilient as corporate earnings season continues with a strength in technology but also in broader sectors as well which remains supportive of a broader equity market exposure.