Trump is back…but should stakeholders operating within the intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements be cheerful about his return to the oval office? This will certainly not sound like a “hot take” or anything, but the second Trump presidential term will undoubtedly offer a mixture of risk and reward…ushering in a new era of market volatility. As press secretary Karoline Leavitt recently pointed out, "there has never been a president who communicates with the American people as openly and authentically as Donald Trump.” But while I personally enjoy that operating model…it does create an economic environment that I recently described to an industry colleague as “best suited for master sailors.” And that’s because the art of both the sailor (and businessperson) is to leave nothing to chance…but sailors are artists whose medium is the wind and today’s businesspeople must be artists whose medium is correctly spotting Donald Trump’s subtle hints that reveal upcoming events. Furthermore, I believe a key to potentially benefitting from the Trump 2.0 “driver of demand” requires understanding how to position against a few of his known (but converging) “the art of the deal” tendencies. And these would be (1) a little hyperbole never hurts, (2) confirm an impression they were already predisposed to believe, (3) never get too attached to one deal or one approach, and (4) sometimes your best decisions are the ones you don’t make. Finally, it’s extremely important to consider rate of speed and level of efficiency surrounding Trump 2.0 changes. Since this is a “been here, done that” kind of thing, Trump won’t fumble through the initial phase of his term he will have a better understanding around bottlenecks and getting around chokepoints…including how to flex unilateral powers. Also, given that the House and Senate are Republican majorities (at least for the next two years), that political trifecta usually creates efficiency and makes for stickier policy changes. But the inspiration behind my latest first principles thinking content piece (or I guess content miniseries) was a Trump 2.0 section titled “rhetoric foreshadowing action is greater than embellished negotiation tactics” that I included into many of functional CPG brand and supply side client presentations during the last quarter of 2024. And while each of those client presentations were packed with diverse personalized insights…I’m confident this “Trump 2.0” content miniseries, filled with a refined (and expanded) version of my generalized “base case” strategies, will be extremely valuable to my regular audience. And I figured part three of this Trump 2.0 content miniseries should be “financial" because he loves to use (especially the stock market) as measurement for his success and economic scoreboard overall. And I’d group the expected Trump 2.0 policy decisions to restore (and promote) American competitiveness into three buckets; cutting burdensome regulations, retaliatory tariffs, and providing financial incentives. But since I deeply covered the first two policy decision buckets within the previous Trump 2.0 content miniseries parts…I will focus on financial incentives like "America First" business tax cuts, but also interest rate dynamics, private financial markets (investing/fundraising), U.S. dollar index, stock market performance, and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).