Donald Trump says the ceasefire is over. After fresh US strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks on American military bases in the Gulf, hopes that the conflict was winding down have been thrown into doubt. 

Trump has declared he no longer wants to negotiate with Tehran, raising fears that the Middle East could be entering a dangerous new phase.

So what do these latest attacks tell us? Is diplomacy finished? Could Israel escalate its military campaign? And what does renewed instability mean for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the wider global economy?

On this episode of the Fourcast Indicators Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by defence and intelligence analyst Mark Urban and also speaks to Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, founder of the Green Party of Iran and a former senior IRGC commander, to discuss Iran's response, the future of the regime, and whether there is any route back to diplomacy.