Truth and Consequences

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit truthandcons.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit truthandcons.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit truthandcons.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit truthandcons.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit truthandcons.substack.com/subscribe

Yesterday morning, I sat down with Elliott Morris to talk about what’s happening these days in American politics.

We focused on President Trump’s growing and historic unpopularity, the Democratic Party’s declining approval numbers, and why they likely don’t matter. We also explored why the Democratic Party is unlikely to compete effectively in red-state America, the current era of anti-incumbency politics, and why Republicans are facing a post-Trump identity crisis.

This was a meaty discussion with one of the better data journalists in the business, so I’ve no doubt you’ll enjoy the conversation!

For those of you who haven’t signed up for Elliott’s excellent substack newsletter, “Strength in Numbers,” he’s offering a special 25% off discount for Truth and Consequences readers. Check it out here!

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit truthandcons.substack.com/subscribe

My good friend Michael Grunwald has written an excellent new book on the link between what we eat and saving the earth from climate change called “We Are Eating The Earth.” Mike is one of the best political and policy writers that I know (I’m not just saying this because we’re friends!). His last book on Obama’s stimulus package was one of the policy books of the Obama era, and this latest one is also fantastic.

So, I invited him to spend some time discussing the book, the challenge of food security, its link to climate change, and what each of us can do to save the earth. It was a great discussion, and I hope you enjoy it!

And when you finish listening, please be sure to pick up the book.

In Other News …

The Epstein saga continues …

It was Jeffrey Epstein’s 50th birthday, and Ghislaine Maxwell was preparing a special gift to mark the occasion. She turned to Epstein’s family and friends. One of them was Donald Trump.

Maxwell collected letters from Trump and dozens of Epstein’s other associates for a 2003 birthday album, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

… The letter bearing Trump’s name, which was reviewed by the Journal, is bawdy—like others in the album. It contains several lines of typewritten text framed by the outline of a naked woman, which appears to be hand-drawn with a heavy marker. A pair of small arcs denotes the woman’s breasts, and the future president’s signature is a squiggly “Donald” below her waist, mimicking pubic hair.

It isn’t clear how the letter with Trump’s signature was prepared. Inside the outline of the naked woman was a typewritten note styled as an imaginary conversation between Trump and Epstein, written in the third person.

“Voice Over: There must be more to life than having everything,” the note began.

Donald: Yes, there is, but I won’t tell you what it is.

Jeffrey: Nor will I, since I also know what it is.

Donald: We have certain things in common, Jeffrey.

Jeffrey: Yes, we do, come to think of it.

Donald: Enigmas never age, have you noticed that?

Jeffrey: As a matter of fact, it was clear to me the last time I saw you.

Donald: A pal is a wonderful thing. Happy Birthday — and may every day be another wonderful secret.

I stand by my earlier position that there’s probably more smoke than fire when it comes to this Epstein story … but, having said that, this is one creepy-ass poem.

Moreover, Trump and those around him have handled this story in the most inept way imaginable. Indeed, the president told the Wall Street Journal, “I never wrote a picture in my life. I don’t draw pictures of women. It’s not my language. It’s not my words.” Yet, we’ve since seen pictures of doodles that Trump made, which were sold at charity auctions. Moreover, he’s baiting the Journal into releasing the letter, which would only serve to magnify the pain for the White House.

The bottom line here is that those around Trump over-promised on the Epstein files and didn’t deliver. There were no Epstein files or Epstein client list, and he almost certainly killed himself in jail. But for the conspiracy-minded, government denials only feed their conspiratorial views. What makes matters worse is that Trump had a relationship with Epstein, which up to this point has gone largely unexplored by the media. Put all that together and, if you have a conspiratorial mind, it looks like AG Pam Bondi and the FBI are covering up the Epstein case to protect Trump. I’m not saying that’s what’s going on, because I continue to believe there are no Epstein files, but that’s what it looks like.

The fact is, Trump looks guilty of something; he looks like he has something to hide; and it looks like his administration is hiding information. This doesn’t mean Trump is guilty of anything, but in politics, perception is more than half the battle. It certainly doesn’t help that Trump is suggesting anyone who cares about the Epstein story is an idiot, because MAGA-world does care about it.

I’m hesitant to see this story as a game changer or even to conclude that Trump, like Epstein, sexually assaulted underage girls. But like I said above, that’s one creepy-ass poem … and at this point, anything is possible. As long as there are questions about Trump and Epstein — and the Trump administration is not releasing the Epstein files (which likely don’t even exist) — I suspect this story is not going away. But will it destroy Trump’s presidency? I seriously doubt it. Like most Trump scandals, I expect this one will be soon forgotten and replaced by some new outrage.

Truth and Consequences is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

What’s Going On

* Eric Levitz argues that Democrats should focus on the Epstein saga. He’s right.

* To the surprise of no one, most of the ICE deportations are of people who have not committed a violent crime.

* Greg Ip makes a compelling argument that Trump is getting exactly what he wants with his tariff war … higher tariff rates

* It’s looking increasingly likely that the recent Air India crash was no accident, but rather a deliberate act.

Musical Interlude

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit truthandcons.substack.com/subscribe

A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned in the newsletter that, now more than ever, we all need ways to distract ourselves from the daily outrages of American politics. Some people start exercising, others join a book club, or cultivate a new hobby, like gardening or model airplane building.

I decided to do a podcast.

This is the second podcast idea I’m developing (more on the other soon).

But for those who have followed me for a while, you likely know I’m a big movie buff - and, in particular, 70s movies. For several years now, I have been having regular cinephile email conversations with Jonathan Kirshner, a professor at Boston College, who has written extensively about 1970s cinema. What’s great about my discussions with Jonathan is that we often disagree, though always respectfully!

A couple of weeks ago, after another of our long back-and-forths, I said, “Hey, we should do a movie podcast.”

So here we are.

Jonathan and I decided to focus on 1970s cinema because a) we love it, b) he is an expert on it, c) there are very few current podcasts that focus exclusively on 70s movies, and d) it’s one of the most absorbing and revolutionary periods in modern American cinema. We have no expectations that this is a million-dollar idea (though that would be nice, obviously). Instead, we saw it as a fun opportunity to discuss movies that we love, and hopefully, in the process, create something entertaining and compelling for listeners.

For our inaugural conversation, we chose one of my all-time favorite movies: “All the President’s Men.” I won’t say too much about the film, since you can click above to hear us discuss it at length, but suffice it to say, this is a near-perfect film, with wonderful acting, extraordinary directing, and a brilliantly paced story.

Since we discussed this scene at length in the podcast, here’s a link to “the Dahlberg scene.”

I hope you enjoy the conversation. I’ll be putting everything on Spotify and Apple Podcasts, but for now, consider this a sneak preview for loyal Truth and Consequences readers (and listeners). Please share your thoughts, and don't hesitate to offer your suggestions. (Next week we’ll be discussing “Taxi Driver”).

*Since I reference it at the beginning of the podcast, this is a photograph of the Washington Post newsroom created for the movie. And while we did both video and audio, I didn’t love the way the video turned out, so I decided to post the audio only.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit truthandcons.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit truthandcons.substack.com/subscribe

There’s no Zoom chat today, but I’m giving you the next best thing! Yesterday, I sat down with a friend of the newsletter, Elliot Morris, for a wide-ranging chat about Donald Trump’s lousy poll numbers, why immigration is not a “distraction” for Democrats, and a look back at what happened during the 2024 election. Elliot is one of the best polling analysts in the business, so I couldn’t be happier that he took a few minutes out of his day to chat with me! Hope you enjoy the conversation.

(If you haven’t already, sign up for Elliott’s Substack, Strength In Numbers)

Also, if you can’t get enough of my smiling mug, I’ll be talking with Julian Zelizer at 1:00 today about the state of the Democratic Party and what history tells us about the party’s chances in the 2026 midterm elections. Link is here! Please join us!

Truth and Consequences is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

What’s Going On

* A president ordering the Justice Department to investigate his political rivals is basically page one of the authoritarian playbook.

* Last October, former Las Vegas City Council member Michele Fiore, who has been dubbed “Lady Trump,” was convicted of using $70,000 she raised for a memorial for two fallen police officers on personal expenses, including plastic surgery and her daughter’s wedding. She was facing years in prison … yesterday, President Trump pardoned her.

* Jessica Reidl warns that if congressional Republicans pass their ferkakta tax cut bill, it could set off a debt bomb.

* Aaron Blake argues that 100 days into Trump’s presidency, things are falling apart.

* It’s not just liberal judges that are pushing back on Trump’s illegal actions … it’s also coming from Republicans.

* Slate’s Justin Peters eviscerates Marco Rubio.

* If current trends continue, there could be millions more measles cases in the United States.

* Trump’s approval numbers on immigration continue to decline.

* Under Mike Waltz’s leadership, the National Security Council is a dumpster fire.

* I’m starting to think that Republican concerns about Hillary Clinton’s private email server were not genuine.

* Could Marjorie Taylor Greene throw Jon Ossoff a political lifeline?

* Your semi-regular reminder that for many on the left, Jews don’t count.

Musical Interlude

Sometimes we all need a reminder that the White Stripes f’ing rocked. I saw them in concert about 20 years ago, and it still ranks as one of the greatest live shows I’ve ever seen.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit truthandcons.substack.com/subscribe