Brian Szytel recaps a Tuesday market rebound led by momentum stocks and semiconductors, with the Dow up over 300 points, the S&P 500 up 0.9%, and the Nasdaq up 1.3%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.63% and oil climbed to about $84 WTI and $91 Brent amid the Iran war, pressuring inflation expectations and rates. With no major economic data, he focuses on demand-pull inflation and the lagged relationship between money supply (M2) and CPI, noting M2 is up ~3.5% year-to-date and nearly 6% over 12 months, suggesting inflation could bias higher 12–18 months out despite a cooler June CPI. He discusses the Fed’s inflation-fighting rhetoric, an estimated high chance of a rate hike before year-end, and potential headwinds to risk assets from tighter policy and balance-sheet shrinkage. He also explains that point moves typically refer to the Dow for public discussion, while deeper market analysis relies on the broader S&P 500.

00:00 Market Bounce Recap

01:02 Rates and Oil Move

01:37 Money Supply and CPI

03:05 Fed Hike Risk Ahead

04:52 Dow vs S&P Explained

06:41 Wrap Up and Q&A

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com