Brian Szytel recaps a choppy, directionless market day marked by early heavy losses, a midday rebound, and a late fade amid negative sentiment tied to Middle East tensions: the Dow fell 84 points, the S&P 500 lost just over 0.3%, and the Nasdaq dropped about 0.8%, with tech weaker while defensives, dividend payers, and energy (helped by higher oil) held up better. He discusses conflicting reports about U.S.-Iran negotiations and expects uncertainty to persist for several days, while noting markets still seem to price in a potential off-ramp. He highlights that high-yield credit spreads remain tight at 319 bps over Treasuries, not signaling recession risk. Addressing a stagflation question, he argues current conditions differ from the 1970s despite tariff-driven one-time price effects. Economic updates were broadly positive: services and manufacturing PMIs stayed above 50, Q4 productivity was revised to 1.8%, and the Richmond Fed index was flat but beat expectations.

00:00 Market Recap Today

01:04 Middle East Tensions

02:05 Markets Still Hopeful

02:28 Credit Spreads Check

03:24 Stagflation Question

03:50 Why Not the 1970s

04:48 Tariffs and Inflation

05:35 Economic Data Rundown

06:36 Closing Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com