I have gotten a few questions which amount to "what will happen if China invades Taiwan?" and this is my attempt at an answer. It's obviously a lot of guesswork, but I think that it is fair to say that a massive worldwide economic and geopolitical upheaval is likely. Supply chains will be massively disrupted and a deep recession or even Great Depression 2.0 are likely outcomes. If China does manage to take Taiwan, they will probably face a insurgency that I'm sure the US government will be happy to help along, in addition to dealing with massive sanctions. 

The second half of the episode is a guest post by the excellent podcast ChinaTalk. The episode talks with Michael  O'Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research at Brookings where  specializes in U.S. defense strategy, the use of military force, and  American national security policy about: 

The limits of scenarios that predict the outcome of a China-Taiwan conflict.

What are intercontinental rail guns?

How sports teams that play each other in the same year can have different outcomes - and what this says about predictability.

Given all this, what’s the point of modelling exercises?

Go subscribe to ChinaTalk if you have not already, it's a great podcast for anyone interested in Chinese-American relations. 

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In this episode I talk with Ian W. Toll, one of if not the best American naval historian, about the road to war decision making by Japanese leaders, the lessons learned and how they were applied by US and Japanese naval leaders during the war, and the strategic calculus of Japanese, American, and Soviet governments in the final year of the war. We discuss how each of these topics may parallel decision making by American and Chinese leaders in the run up to a potential hot war and any decision by the CCP to invade Taiwan, and the lessons we can draw from WWII to any near-future Pacific conflict. We close on a discussion about the applicability of a haunting possibility: that in the event of a Pacific conflict between the US and China, the United States Navy may find itself in the role of the Imperial Japanese Navy during WWII: better trained, well prepared at the outset, but lacking the industrial strength to sustain a war of attrition, and thus doomed to lose the long war.Ian Toll's books (click here)

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In  this episode I talk with Professor David Silbey about the strategic rationale behind the Spanish American War, the Philippine Insurgency and the anti-guerrilla tactics the army honed on the frontier against Native Americans to fight the insurgency, and the boxer Rebellion in China. We discuss how the Boxer Rebellion echoes in Chinese policy towards the world today and dive into some of the strategic calculus that the Chinese government and military may be making today, and why they feel they need a navy and zone of influence.  Tune in for a fascinating discussion. 

David Silbey's books (click here)

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In this episode I talk with historian Eric Jay Dolin about his research on the first decades of America's relationship with China as a new nation. It is the story of global markets, exploration, desperation, drugs, and war which set against the course of America's rise and China's decline in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, setting the stage for this third season of the US Naval History Podcast. 

Eric Jay Dolin's books (click here)

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This is a very fun crossover episode with Because Language (give them a listen!) where we talk and joke about the many expressions we use come from the nautical domain. But are they nautical? Are they really?

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The Soviet Union crumbled and left the United States Navy the undisputed greatest naval power on earth. Our naval might surpassed every other nation's combined. Naval might allowed the combined arms masterpiece of the first Gulf War, lightening-fast deployment to Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks, and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, but these small wars proved to be disastrous to the surface fleet which saw underinvestment and readiness fall, even as SEAL Teams honed their deadly craft on America’s enemies around the world. 


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Hi and thank you for tuning into this very brief, very important, and very non-history related episode of the US Naval history podcast. It’s more of a special request episode. Unfortunately, I am looking for a job right now and this podcast is far from paying the bills as you may have noticed from the distinct lack of advertisements thus far. In fact, I lose a small amount of money every single time I produce an episode. And so, I have an ask. If you think I sound like a quasi-intelligent human being, and if you or anyone you know has a job opening that you think I might be a good fit for, I would love to hear about it. I graduated from the Naval Academy in 2014 with a degree in Systems Engineering, spent the next six years in the navy, got out, briefly started an pretty successful small business, and have since worked in finance and most recently in operations. I’m fairly open to a wide variety of roles in operations, project management, and consulting. And that’s it folks, if you know of something shoot me an email at [email protected], otherwise stay subscribed to this feed for more history-related episodes coming your way soon. 

On September 29, 2006, Michael Monsoor and three SEAL snipers watched vigilantly for enemy activity from their rooftop post in Ar Ramadi, Iraq. When a grenade thrown from insurgents bounced off Michael's chest, he could have escaped. Instead, he threw himself onto the live grenade, shielding his fellow soldiers from the immediate  explosion. Michael died thirty minutes later, having made the ultimate  sacrifice.

This is a somewhat unusual episode of the US Naval History Podcast- it is the first time I am not covering a specific era but a person, and the first time I have guests on the podcast. this episode discusses the life, mission, and ongoing legacy of one of our nation's great heroes is Rose Rea, co-author of Defend Us in Battle and retired US Navy CAPT Scott Smith who previously the commissioning Commanding Officer of the USS Michael Monsoor, one of three ultra-modern Zumwalt-class guided missile destroyers. 

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This episode  tells the story of the the submarine force during the Cold War, where it was the coldest of cold forces, often operating in the Arctic waters off the Soviet coastline and far from the traditional Cold War hotspots. This is the story of a conventional force turning into a nuclear one, led by Admiral Rickover, with all of the genius and eccentricities he brought with him. Under his watch, the submarine force was transformed into the nation's primary nuclear deterrence shield and a covert espionage platform that spied on and played deadly games of cat-and-mouse with their Soviet counterparts.  

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The rise of a navy unchallenged in the world...

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