UBS On-Air: House View

Welcome to CIO Jumpstart, your guide to the main market events coming up in the week ahead

Renewed uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices and bond yields higher, reviving concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten policy. Policymakers have made clear that they are willing to raise rates if inflation remains too high. But we believe moderate labor-market slowing and further underlying disinflation will allow the Fed to remain on hold this year.

Gold has risen to its highest level in seven weeks, and we think the medium- to longer-term case for holding the metal remains supported by lower real rates, a softer dollar, and central bank buying. We continue to see a role for gold in diversified portfolios.

Recovering sentiment toward the AI trade, strong earnings results, and signs of diplomatic progress in the US-Iran conflict pushed equities higher on Tuesday. Continued AI investment, broadening earnings growth, and a patient Fed support our constructive view on equities.

The AI story is evolving beyond a narrow tech trade. We see opportunities across the broader value chain, from power to chips to health care.

July brought a sharp reminder that geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and crowded trades can still unsettle markets. Even so, stronger earnings, moderating inflation, and resilient demand should help sustain a constructive backdrop for diversified investors.

AI investment and monetization, resilient US growth, and a patient Fed should help keep the US equity rally on track. We believe investors should remain broadly diversified to capture opportunities beyond tech as market leadership continues to widen.

The latest hyperscaler earnings point to strong capital expenditures in the near term and encouraging monetization trends. But pressure on cash flows could lead to a slowdown in capex beyond next year. We think the AI investment opportunity has become more differentiated, and recommend exposure to select semis and defensive tech.

After months of geopolitical uncertainty and heightened market volatility, markets have been quick to respond to both signs of de-escalation and fresh sources of tension. Yet the outlook remains far from straightforward. Questions around the durability of the AI-driven market rally, the path of inflation and interest rates, and the risk of renewed geopolitical tensions continue to shape the investment landscape. Hear from Christine Novakovic, Head of Global Wealth Management EMEA, alongside Themis Themistocleous, Head of the Chief Investment Office EMEA, and special guest R.P. Eddy, CEO of Ergo, a leading geopolitical and economic intelligence advisory firm. Together, they discussed what’s driving markets today and shared their outlook for the months ahead.

While the Fed is likely to hold rates steady today, investors should watch for longer-term changes to how it communicates policy and manages its balance sheet. Potential changes may affect rate volatility, long-term yields, and the role of Fed support in bond markets.