UBS On-Air: House View

Gold has fallen to its lowest level in nearly eight months, but we think this offers an opportunity for underallocated investors to build strategic exposure. We believe the investment case for gold remains positive, as we believe the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in the near term, and the US dollar should weaken as the year progresses. Gold has also historically provided diversification benefits in a portfolio context.

Risk sentiment weakened amid pressure on semiconductor stocks, but we believe the recent correction should be seen in the context of the strong rally in recent months. While we remain confident in the AI growth story, we also expect that the next phase of stock gains will come from a broader range of opportunities.

We view current market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in the near term as too aggressive, as inflation should moderate in the coming months, growth may soften, and broader changes at the Fed could slow down policy reaction. We continue to see an attractive risk-return profile for short- and medium-duration quality bonds.

The window has swung back open for new IPOs and secondary offerings, with share issuance likely to reach a record high in dollar terms this year. But we do not think this will be challenging to absorb given the growth of the overall equity market.

The AI rally has been one of the defining features of markets in the first half of the year. While we think it can drive further gains, we also believe the rally will continue to broaden across the rest of the market. We think investors should stay invested, while keeping diversification at the center of portfolio construction

The FOMC held the policy rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75%, but the combination of higher inflation projections, a hawkish distribution of rate forecasts, and the removal of forward guidance points to a restrictive-for-longer policy stance.

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady today, but markets will be watching Kevin Warsh's debut press conference as chair and his outlook on inflation and rates. We maintain the view that the Fed should resume easing next year, benefiting short- and medium-duration quality bonds.

An unexpected US intervention shows how quickly AI policy can shift from theory to tangible risk. With this year’s equity rally directly linked to AI demand expectations, we examine how a tighter US regulatory approach could impact AI spending, talent, and model leadership.

The US and Iran have reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with official signing scheduled later this week. Volatility may persist in the near term as markets assess the implementation and durability of the deal, but we maintain our view that resilient growth and robust earnings should continue to drive stocks higher. We continue to recommend investors hold a diversified portfolio across asset classes, sectors, and geographies.

Market swings may persist as geopolitics, rates, and funding questions collide, but the underlying buildout driving AI-linked equities remains intact, in our view. Investors should stay invested in the AI opportunity, while rotating exposure toward areas with clearer demand visibility and stronger earnings support.