The UFC calendar rolls on with another massive title fight — and First Strike is back to break it all down.

Dave Ross and Rob Moreno are joined by Reed Kuhn (@Fightnomics) to preview UFC 325, headlined by Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes. The crew digs into the numbers, betting markets, and stylistic matchups that matter most as the title picture continues to evolve.

 

On this episode:

📊 Analytical breakdowns with Reed Kuhn

💰 Betting angles, market movement & value spots

 

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🎙️ Available wherever you get your podcasts.

 

00:00 — Dave Ross welcomes Reed Kuhn back to First Strike

00:39 — Reed Kuhn on Fightnomics fundamentals & evolving UFC models

02:06 — Where to find the Fightnomics book in 2026

03:36 — The Paramount+ era: does it change UFC analytics?

05:06 — UFC 325 Main Event: Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2

07:22 — Finish potential, totals movement & betting angles (Volk vs Lopes)

08:17 — Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint Denis breakdown

10:42 — Totals talk & live-bet considerations (BSD fight)

11:37 — Mauricio Ruffy vs Rafael Fiziev model breakdown

13:31 — Decision prop talk & stylistic matchup notes
14:28 — Transition: Rob Moreno joins next
 

15:08 — Rob Moreno joins: how El Modelo was inspired by Fightnomics

15:29 — Why MMA modeling “clicked” compared to team sports

16:55 — VSiN Pro subscriber promo + upcoming betting calendar

17:46 — Super Bowl betting guide plug

18:05 — Ruffy vs Fiziev: over 2.5, toughness & finishing paths

21:19 — Benoit Saint Denis vs Dan Hooker: age, recency & model lean

24:42 — Round prop (1.5) discussion & BSD finish angle

26:15 — Alternate unders & BSD by finish

26:41 — Junior Tafa vs Billy Elekana: model fade & parlay angle

28:58 — Under 7.5 correlation & finish math

29:40 — Main Event breakdown: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2

30:25 — Why Rob is backing this fighter at the current price

33:38 — Totals repopulated (4.5): correlated betting angles

35:03 — If Lopes wins: wrestling adjustments & path to victory

35:34 — Final thoughts, subscribe reminder & sign-off
 

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