Ukraine War Briefings with Jason Jay Smart

As Moscow prepares for May 9 under drone-defense pressure, Russia’s Victory Day parade on Red Square will reportedly exclude tanks, armored vehicles, missile systems, and heavy weapons for the first time in nearly 20 years. Russian officials cite the “current operational situation,” while the Kremlin blames Ukrainian activity, leaving Putin’s central military ritual stripped down as the capital adds visible protection.

Before the parade changed, the battlefield picture had already moved against Russia. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) data shows Russia suffered 116 sq km (45 sq mi) of net territorial losses in April, while Russian advances and infiltrations totaled only 28.28 sq km (10.9 sq mi), roughly a 4.1-to-1 territorial reversal against Russia. May then opened with strikes on Primorsk, shadow-fleet tankers, and Ukrainian claims of a Karakurt-class Kalibr missile carrier hit.

With United24 reporting open-source footage of S-400 surface-to-air missile components moving through Moscow ahead of May 9, and analysts citing about 130 air-defense sites around the capital, the pressure is no longer confined to the front. Russia still has glide bombs, missiles, drones, and destructive power, but the target list now includes Moscow, Red Square, ports, tankers, airfields, refineries, state institutions, and the capital itself.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 - Intro: Ukraine Strikes Putin’s Moscow

02:10 - Ghost Parade: Russia’s Failed Victory Day

05:21 - Economic Blow: Ukraine Shreds Russia's Rear Infrastructure

08:12 – Elite Exodus: Putin's Inner Circle Starts Defecting

10:48 - Looted Future: Russian Elites Rob Pension Funds

11:19 - Final Countdown: The Imminent End of Putin’s Regime

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine says drones hit Russian Su-57 stealth fighters and a Su-34 fighter-bomber at Shagol airfield in the Chelyabinsk region, about 1,700 km (1,056 miles) inside Russia. The reported strike puts one of Moscow’s rarest aircraft targets deep in the Urals, far beyond the front line, and challenges the belief that distance protects Russia’s most valuable air assets.

The Su-57 is Russia’s prestige stealth fighter. The Su-34 is a major strike aircraft used in attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and frontline positions. If Ukraine can reach warplanes like these at Shagol, Russia’s rear airbases, repair hubs, air-defense layers, and command assumptions are no longer protected by geography. This kind of deep strike forces every Russian airbase commander to recalculate risk, especially as Moscow prepares Victory Day under tighter security.

Jason Jay Smart, PhD, breaks down what the reported Shagol strike reveals about Russia’s exposed rear airbases, Ukraine’s expanding drone reach, and the pressure now facing Putin’s air force far inside Russia. Subscribe for serious pro-Ukraine geopolitical analysis on Russian warplanes, Moscow’s military vulnerabilities, Putin, NATO, the Kremlin, and the consequences of this war for Ukraine, Europe, the United States, and the wider West.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 - Intro: Russia's Unavoidable Routine Defeats

01:27 - Elite Rubble: Ukraine Humiliates Putin's Rare Tech

03:50 - Costly Failures: Putin’s Multi-Million Dollar Losses

06:17 - Parade Panic: Ukraine Targets the Kremlin's Legitimacy

08:29 - Oil Crisis: Corruption Bleeds Russia's Economy

10:24 - Total Defeat: Russian Army Loses Territory

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

Putin’s Chechen warlord system is under new strain after Kadyrov’s forces reportedly suffered a major blow tied to betrayal inside Russia’s own security network.

For years, Putin relied on Chechen loyalty, fear, and violence to help hold part of his war machine together. Ramzan Kadyrov is sick, his son Adam lacks real authority, and Moscow has no clean successor who can command the same network. A serious fracture in Chechnya would create a loyalty problem inside one of the forces Putin trusted most.

Ukraine’s campaign is also hitting the financial machinery behind the war. In April, Ukraine struck Russian oil infrastructure at least 21 times, hit nine refineries, and took five offline. Ukrainian drones are now reaching up to 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) into Russian territory, while Russian military bloggers warn that many major cities lack serious air-defense coverage.

Putin now faces problems in places his system was supposed to control: Chechen loyalty, Russian oil revenue, regional security, elite confidence, and air defense coverage across Russia.

Chechnya, Kadyrov, Russian refineries, Ukraine’s drone campaign, and Kremlin instability are becoming one larger warning about Putin’s war inside Russia.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 - Intro: Putin’s Collapsing Kremlin Regime

01:26 - Burning Refineries: Ukraine Shuts Down Russian Oil

03:27 - Chechen Betrayal: Kadyrov’s Power Struggle With Putin

05:07 - Elite Purge: How Putin Cleanses the Kremlin

07:16 - Phantom Soldiers: Medvedev’s Desperate Recruitment Lies

08:18 - Deadly Alliance: Russia and Iran’s Secret Deal

10:01 - Global Assault: The Kremlin’s War Against the West

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine is now hitting the oil infrastructure that keeps Putin's war machine operating. Refineries, ports, factories, and deep rear targets are no longer safely behind the front line, and the damage reaches the revenue, fuel, transport, and industry Moscow needs to keep the invasion moving.

Putin's problem is not one isolated strike. His state now has to defend more oil facilities, more export routes, more air-defense gaps, and more territory while sanctions pressure grows and repair costs rise. Every damaged facility weakens the machinery behind Russia's war budget, and every missed defense makes the promise of control harder to believe.

That is why the oil story connects directly to the financial pressure already visible around Russian banks, savings, and state finances. Putin sold Russians stability while sending war into Ukraine. Now the pressure is moving back into the systems that pay for the invasion, and Moscow has to prove it can still fund a long war while Ukraine keeps reaching the machinery Russia needs to function.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 - Intro: Ukraine Destroys Russian War Budget

01:19 - Drone Warfare: Ukraine Drones Expose Russian Gaps

03:24 - Elite Plunder: How Putin Enriches His Cronies

05:27 - Sanction Pressure: US Sanctions Choke Russian Oil

09:03 - Public Panic: Russian Citizens Fear Economic Ruin

10:20 - Bank Ruin: Russia Faces Massive Currency Crisis

11:48 - Kremlin Chaos: FSB Battles for Russian Control

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

Putin’s war is now reaching into Russian bank accounts, because the pressure Ukraine is creating inside Russia is no longer theoretical. In April, Russia’s so-called three-day operation gained essentially nothing, while Ukraine struck across roughly 1.4 million square kilometers, or 540,000 square miles, hitting border cities, oil ports, pipelines, refineries, and deep interior infrastructure. Moscow’s army is barely moving, but Russia’s internal pressure is spreading quickly.

Russian citizens are already pulling cash from the banks, and the state is looking for ways to stop the money from leaving. Nearly $20 billion reportedly left bank accounts in January, with most of it staying outside the banking system. Now the Kremlin is weighing tighter withdrawal limits, forced state certificates, currency controls, and restrictions that could trap private savings inside a system Russians already distrust.

That financial pressure is hitting while Russia burns through soldiers faster than it replaces them, sells state gold to cover budget holes, and protects Putin’s favored oligarchs while regions run short of money. Hospitals are weakening, propagandists are preparing the public for harder times, and ordinary Russians remember what happened in 1991 and 1998. Putin wanted a short war in Ukraine, but he may now be creating a cash crisis, a confidence crisis, and a political crisis inside Russia.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 - Intro: Russia’s Military Operation Stalls

01:05 - Border Blitz: Ukraine Hits Russian Infrastructure

03:46 - Cash Trap: Putin Freezes Russian Savings

06:20 - Gold Selloff: Kremlin Faces Economic Collapse

07:56 - Devil’s Bargain: Putin Lets Oligarchs Rob Russia

10:18 - Kremlin Lies: Propagandists Hide Economic Reality

11:27 - Elite Secrets: Hypocrisy of Russian Propagandists

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

Russia may now be one shock away from a bank run. Corporate bad loans have reportedly climbed above 11%, more than double the European Union's serious supervisory threshold, while Russians pulled nearly $20 billion from bank accounts in January alone. That is how a banking problem becomes public panic: businesses stop paying, banks start protecting cash, and ordinary people begin wondering whether their savings will still be reachable tomorrow.

Jason Smart walks through the sequence Russia is already entering. Bad loans rise, banks grow defensive, businesses miss payments, depositors pull cash, and fear begins moving faster than official reassurance. Personal deposits reportedly fell 2.4% in a single month, and much of that money is now outside the banking system, where it no longer supports lending, liquidity, or trust.

The danger is that this financial stress is hitting while Putin is paying for a long war, absorbing heavy losses, and watching Ukrainian strikes reach energy infrastructure such as Tuapse. That is why the banking story now belongs inside the war story. A rumor about withdrawal limits, a payment glitch, or one visible bank line could turn Russia's private anxiety into public panic very quickly.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 - Intro: Russia’s Systemic Bank Run Anatomy

01:48 - Terminal Collapse: Five Stages of Kremlin Ruin

03:53 - Strike Effect: Russia Faces Total Bank Default

06:55 - Parade Panic: Ukraine Targets the Russian Rear

08:29 - Oil Trap: Putin’s Hyperinflation and Default Risk

09:21 - Regional Ruin: Russia’s Healthcare and Business Catastrophe

11:41 - Soldier Burn: Ukraine Drones Destroy Russian Troops

12:40 - Oligarch Greed: Putin Enriches the Russian Elite

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

Over the past 72 hours, Russia ran out of runway. Ukraine’s pressure is tearing into the systems Putin needs to keep the war going, from occupied Crimea and deep refineries inside Russia to Moscow’s Victory Day security plans and Russia’s paid-security network in Mali.

In Crimea, Ukraine reached Sevastopol, Belbek, landing ships, a reconnaissance ship, a MiG-31, and the radar and maintenance network around the Black Sea Fleet. Farther inside Russia, Yaroslavl’s 300,000-barrel-per-day refinery, about 250 km (155 miles) northeast of Moscow, showed the same reality: distance no longer protects the Russian war machine.

Mali exposed the foreign side of Putin’s overstretched map. Kati was breached, General Sadio Camara was killed near the junta’s security core, Kidal became contested again, and Africa Corps reportedly took losses. Putin can still defend selected targets, but too many exposed targets now force impossible choices.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 - Intro: Russia Faces Total System Collapse

01:23 - Black Sea: Ukraine Destroys Russia’s Naval Power

03:47 - Africa Lost: Russia Ejected From African Continent

06:41 - Fuel Crisis: Ukraine Hits Deep Inside Russia

08:31 - Victory Cancelled: Putin Loses Control Over Moscow

10:16 - Economic Ruin: Russia Returns To Soviet Economy

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

Putin’s war in Ukraine is now exposing a weaker Moscow: Kremlin infighting, fading oil leverage, a tense succession fight, and a battlefield where the front line barely moves. Instead of the decisive victory promised by the Kremlin, men, equipment, money, and authority are being spent for gains too small to justify the cost. Measured against Napoleon’s march toward Moscow, Alexander the Great’s campaign pace, or Desert Storm, today’s advance looks less like conquest than exhaustion.

Inside the capital, Sergei Kiriyenko, Andrei Belousov, war veterans, Duma lists, and the post-Putin question are colliding inside one political machine. Veterans can strengthen the system when they praise it, but anger, status, and nationalist pressure make them dangerous when they enter politics. Once the Kremlin turns fighters into heroes, silencing them becomes far harder if they stop obeying.

Beyond Ukraine, Moscow’s old imperial leverage is also shrinking. Kazakhstan, Central Asia, oil transit, and Europe show neighbors learning to move around Putin instead of waiting for permission. Each pipeline dispute, battlefield failure, and elite feud points toward one larger crisis: the war meant to restore Russian power is consuming it. Follow how Prigozhin’s legacy, Kremlin rivalry, and fading influence now collide around Vladimir Putin under mounting pressure.

Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

Russia's war is no longer contained to the battlefield. The pressure is now moving through the economy, into Moscow, and into the political core of the Kremlin system. In this video, Dr. Jason Smart explains why warnings from inside Russia's own political structure matter, why comparisons to 1917 are now appearing in public, and why even loyal figures are starting to admit that the current course may not hold much longer.

The analysis follows the pressure step by step: Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure, shrinking tax capacity, layoffs, hidden state statistics, regional budget stress, and the widening gap between Kremlin propaganda and daily life inside Russia. It also examines how authoritarian systems weaken when money tightens, when rulers receive worse information, and when elite cohesion starts to crack. That is when a regime can still look strong on television while weakening underneath.

Watch through to the end for the historical comparison, the strategic meaning of Ukraine's growing effectiveness, and the political warning signs now flashing inside Russia's system. This video connects battlefield pressure, economic deterioration, and political instability into one clear picture, and explains why those trends matter for Putin's grip on power and for the future of the war against Ukraine.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 - Intro: Russia’s 1917 Revolution Threat

01:14 - Ukraine's Drone War: Strategic Blows to Russian Oil

02:54 - Russia's Economic Collapse: The Hidden Budget Crisis

05:59 - Putin’s War: Mass Exodus and Demographic Collapse

07:28 - Kremlin Elites: Total Disconnection from the Public

09:54 - Putin vs Nicholas II: The Elite Cohesion Crisis

11:18 - Putin's Final Trap: The End is Near

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

Russia's latest Baltic air operation was not just another routine military flight. Moscow sent bombers and fighters near NATO airspace, allied aircraft responded quickly, and the real issue is not the official Russian explanation. The real issue is whether the Kremlin was testing alliance readiness, response time, and air defense patterns on one of Europe's most sensitive frontiers.

This matters because pressure below the level of open war is one of Moscow's most useful tools. A limited move in the Baltic can create uncertainty, force reaction, and remind European capitals that Russia can still generate risk beyond the battlefield in Ukraine. That makes this more than an intercept story. It is a warning signal about how the Kremlin measures weakness and pressure inside NATO.

In this briefing, Jason Smart breaks down what Moscow may have been trying to learn, why the Baltic matters so much right now, and how this fits Russia's wider pattern of coercion, ambiguity, and calibrated escalation. If the Kremlin is probing NATO's northern flank while the war in Ukraine continues, then this incident carries a larger strategic message for Europe.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 - Intro: Putin’s NATO Provocation in the Baltic Sea

02:05 - Economic Crisis: Russia Faces 1917 Revolution

04:30 - Soldier Deficit: Putin’s Frontlines Are Thinning

06:21 - Strategic Deception: Gerasimov's Fake Success

07:58 - Elite Fighting: FSB Purges Russian Defense

10:00 - Hybrid War: Putin Provokes European Conflict

12:35 - Soviet Collapse: Why Putin’s Time is Running Out

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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.