Unbreakable Ventures

This past weekend, New Zealand's Nelson-Tasman region got absolutely hammered by flooding, while Air India Flight 171's crash continues to expose dangerous cracks in our global aviation system. From insurance markets collapsing to aircraft fleets grounded by parts shortages, we examine how critical infrastructure failures create cascading risks for businesses worldwide.

Episode Highlights

Nelson-Tasman Weekend Disaster: June 28-29 flooding killed one person and generated 373+ insurance claims worth millions, representing another nail in New Zealand's collapsing insurance market

Air India Flight 171 Catastrophe: Boeing 787 Dreamliner's first fatal crash killed 241 people, exposing systemic vulnerabilities in global aviation supply chains and triggering 10-30% insurance premium increases worldwide

Insurance Market Transformation: New Zealand's claims exploded from $17 million annually in the 1990s to $3.5 billion in 2023, with IAG stopping policies on 20,000 flood-prone homes

Global Aviation Crisis: 160 aircraft (25% of India's fleet) remain grounded due to parts shortages, while component lead times doubled from 18 to 30 weeks amid the worst supply chain crisis since WWII

Business Adaptation Strategies: Practical mitigation steps including parametric insurance, supply chain diversification, and operational flexibility planning for companies facing these escalating risks

Resources & Further Reading

Aviation Story - Air India Flight 171:

Air India crash is the latest test for new Boeing leadership | Reuters | June 12, 2025

Air India crash: What to know about the first fatal Boeing Dreamliner tragedy | CNBC | June 12, 2025

Indian authorities begin investigating Air India crash in which 1 passenger survived | NPR | June 13, 2025

Air India crash risks fueling up to 30% jump in airline insurance premia | Business Standard | June 23, 2025

Insurance Story - New Zealand Climate Crisis:

Australian, New Zealand property markets face creeping climate risks | Reuters | July 1, 2024

Tasman, Nelson to prepare for more heavy rain following flooding | RNZ | June 30, 2025

2023 climate disaster payouts top $2 billion | Insurance Council of New Zealand | February 28, 2024

Where homeowners insurance costs are rising the most — and how Trump's tariffs could make them worse | MarketWatch | April 8, 2025

Host: Ollie Law, Editor-in-ChiefDuration: Approximately 15 minutesCategories: Technological, Environmental, Economic

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🎙️ Fortnightly Risk Update – June 16, 2025

☕ Pour a cup and unpack this week's biggest disruptions:

Economic: One bad apple spoils the supply chain. China's rare earth licensing crisis shuts down Ford's Chicago plant and Suzuki production. 90% of global processing capacity now requires government approval, exposing dangerous "just-in-time" vulnerabilities.

Technological: Apple exposes the illusion of AI thinking. Research reveals ChatGPT and Claude lack true reasoning, failing even with correct algorithms. 34-hour ChatGPT outage highlights enterprise over-dependence on flawed systems.

🔥 Quick Hits: OpenAI's triple crisis week • Interpol dismantles 20k malicious domains • Google's 15-day hurricane predictions • Airlines secretly selling passenger data • Brazil bird flu disrupts SA food supply

🎧 Listen for threat insights, analysis, and action steps. 📚 Sources: https://www.unbreakableventures.com/p/one-bad-apple-risk-updates-for-weeks

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unbreakableventures.com

🎙️ Fortnightly Risk Update – May 20–June 2, 2025

☕ Pour a cup and unpack this fortnight’s biggest disruptions:

Technological: It’s not just food. It’s a $400m cyber breach.M&S suffers a crippling ransomware attack by Scattered Spider, halting online operations and exposing customer data. Recovery expected to stretch into July.

Environmental: Toxic bloom suffocates South Australia’s coast.A rare algae bloom kills over 200 species, shuts down oyster farms, and leaves marine industries reeling. A wake-up call for climate-driven business risks.

Economic: QNB Türkiye relocates 830 staff over seismic risk.The bank shifts operations from Istanbul to Ankara, highlighting a growing trend of relocating infrastructure in response to natural disaster threats.

🎧 Listen for threat insights, analysis, and action steps.📚 Sources and recommendations at unbreakableventures.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unbreakableventures.com

🎙️ Fortnightly Risk Update – May 5–19, 2025

☕ Grab a brew and catch the top 3 emerging threats:

1. Economic:Could the U.S. Tank the Global Economy?Debt ceiling brinkmanship is back. A U.S. default would devalue the dollar, rattle markets, and disrupt global trade. Run scenario tests and monitor U.S. budget talks through Q3.

2. Economic:NZ’s Open Banking Model Could Kill InnovationProposed API fees put NZ out of step with global standards. Fintechs face higher costs, with innovation and competition at risk.

3. Technological:Sonos App Update Sparks CrisisA botched redesign removed key features and broke connectivity. Ratings tanked, trust eroded, CEO stepped down.

🎧 Listen for insights, analysis, and what to do next.📚 Full sources and preventative actions at unbreakableventures.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unbreakableventures.com

🎧 Episode Notes (April 21 – May 5, 2025)

1. Societal & EconomicSpain & Portugal blackout: A cascading grid failure—not cyber or terrorism—cut power to millions.🔗 Sources:EuroNewsReutersCapacity MediaYahoo News

2. GeopoliticalAlbanese re-elected in surprise win: Reflects rising global dissatisfaction with establishment politics.🔗 Sources:1NewsWSJ OpinionWall Street Journal

3. TechnologicalFlexiSpy leaks, Microsoft RDP flaw, Apple Wi-Fi hack & SAP CVSS 10 bug: Alarming signs digital tools remain insecure by design.🔗 Sources:GizmodoThe Stack9to5Mac

💬 Want to know how these risks impact your business? Book a free 30-min call at unbreakableventures.com ↗

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Hello 👋 get a brew on because these are the top 3 emerging risks between April 7th and April 21st, 2025…

Review our report’s terminology here ↗

1. Geopolitical & Economic: China’s mineral grip tightens on global supply chains.

China controls 70% of rare earth mining and 85% of processing globally. With new export restrictions in place, they’re signalling that minerals essential to EVs, wind turbines, and electronics can - and will - be used as a political weapon.

The move mirrors the old U.S.–China trade wars but this time it’s not about tariffs. It’s about minerals that power clean tech, defence, and digital infrastructure, and China holds the key.

Why this matters:

Without access to rare earths, innovation stalls. Prices rise. Supply chains collapse. Entire industries become vulnerable to geopolitics instead of market forces.

2. Technological: AI is now powering high-quality phishing emails at scale.

Researchers found that over 80,000 phishing emails were generated using ChatGPT and similar tools. The emails were articulate, polished, and bypassed most spam filters, because they were written like a human, by AI.

No hacking. No bypassing security walls. Just pure misuse of open-access tools.

Why this matters:

Phishing is no longer riddled with typos and sketchy links. AI has raised the game, and anyone can launch convincing, low-effort attacks in seconds.

3. Technological: Your data clears debt during a liquidation.

23andMe filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, but the real issue is what happens to the 15 million DNA profiles it collected. Under U.S. law, that data can be auctioned off to pay creditors.

At the same time, UniSuper and Australian Retirement Trust were hit by quiet, targeted cyberattacks. Not for cash, but for identity data.

Why this matters:

User data—whether genetic, personal, or financial—is now a tradeable asset in both cybercrime and corporate liquidation. If you store sensitive data, or use services that do, this is your wake-up call.

Need support?

At Unbreakable Ventures, we are passionate about helping people get through disasters. That’s why our team of Advisors bring you this resource free of charge. If you need help understanding these threats and building a plan against them, the same Advisors are here to help over a 30-minute online call. Once complete, if you like what was provided, you can choose to provide a donation or subscribe to Unreasonable Ventures to support this channel.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unbreakableventures.com

Hello 👋 get a brew on because these are the top 3 emerging risks between March 24th, and April 7th, 2025…

Review our report’s terminology here ↗

Our main risk this fortnight is…

1. Technological: Oracle’s biggest breach they don’t want you to know about.

* A hacker named Rose87168 claims to have breached Oracle’s identity platform, stealing over 6 million customer records including SSO credentials, OAuth2 keys, and hashed passwords, and is now extorting affected companies.

* Oracle denies, but evidence says otherwise. Despite Oracle’s public denial, independent cybersecurity firms have verified the data is real, affecting up to 144,000 companies, with credentials dated as recently as 2024.

* Why this matters: This breach represents a serious third-party risk. If you use Oracle Cloud or rely on its SSO platform, your systems and data could be compromised, even if your internal security is strong.

* What to do now:

* Investigate if your domain or team was affected.

* Reset all credentials and rotate any tokens/keys.

* Enable MFA and monitor for suspicious activity.

* Update your incident response plans to account for vendor breaches.

Sources

* Bleeping Computer - Oracle privately confirms Cloud breach to customers | Published on 2025-04-03

* Tech Spot - Oracle buried serious data breach from customers, now hacker has it up for sale | Published on 2025-04-01

You should be concerned if…

* Large enterprises using Oracle Cloud for identity or infrastructure: Especially those using Oracle Identity Cloud Service (IDCS) or Oracle Cloud Classic for Single Sign-On (SSO), authentication, or access control.

* Organisations with sensitive or regulated data: Financial institutions, healthcare providers, government agencies, and large SaaS platforms that store personally identifiable information (PII), financial records, or proprietary IP.

* Companies with global operations or remote workforces: Those relying on cloud-based authentication for distributed teams are at higher risk if compromised credentials lead to unauthorised access.

* Third-party vendors and Oracle partners: Suppliers, consultants, or service providers integrated into Oracle’s ecosystem may also have credentials or access points exposed.

* IT, security, and DevOps teams: These individuals are directly responsible for managing cloud credentials, access policies, and system monitoring - and are now on the front line of mitigating the breach fallout.

These items are generic assumptions. We recommend considering your own unique risk landscape against your critical dependencies. If you don’t know what they are, get in touch.

Preventative actions

* Investigate if your domain or team was affected.

* Reset all credentials and rotate any tokens/keys.

* Enable MFA and monitor for suspicious activity.

* Update your incident response plans to account for vendor breaches.

2. Technological: Fake receipts being used for fraudulent expenses.

* AI is powering a new wave of expense fraud: With tools like ChatGPT and DALL·E, anyone can now generate hyper-realistic fake receipts - complete with wrinkled textures, restaurant logos, itemised charges, and perfect maths.

* Fraud is rising fast: AI-generated receipts accounted for nearly 15% of all expense fraud in 2024 - a 300% increase in just two years. And that’s only what’s been caught.

* The risks are broad and costly: Businesses face financial losses, tax liabilities, damaged employee trust, and increased overhead trying to verify claims.

* Detection and prevention are evolving: Tools like Ramp and Veryfi can now detect AI-generated receipts using metadata and OCR, while QR code-based receipts in Europe offer a strong model for verification.

Sources

* Trustpair - The Rise of Generative AI Fraud: Risks, Realities, and Strategies for Businesses | Published on 2024-11-15

* The Economic Times - 'Still Ghibli-posting, pivot to insurance fraud': Netizens are now using ChatGPT to fake receipts and accident | Published on 2025-04-03

3. Technological: Russia floods web with millions of fake articles, targetting LLMs.

* AI is being deliberately fed disinformation: A Russian network called "Pravda" created over 3.6 million fake articles across 150+ sites in 49 countries to poison AI training data, and it’s working. Major chatbots repeated propaganda 33% of the time.

* AI poisoning is a growing global threat: Beyond Russia, China, Iran, and others are manipulating AI through censorship, fake personas, and corrupted models like PoisonGPT.

* The risks are real and serious: Businesses depending on AI face reputational damage, financial losses, and compliance issues if decisions are made using manipulated outputs.

* Action is critical: Vet your AI vendors, cross-check outputs, monitor response patterns, and train teams to question AI-generated content; your data supply chain depends on it.

Sources

* Euromaiden Press - Russian propaganda network Pravda tricks 33% of AI responses in 49 countries | Published on 2025-03-27

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Need support?

At Unbreakable Ventures, we are passionate about helping people get through disasters. That’s why our team of Advisors bring you this resource free of charge. If you need help understanding these threats and building a plan against them, the same Advisors are here to help over a 30-minute online call. Once complete, if you like what was provided, you can choose to provide a donation or subscribe to Unreasonable Ventures to support this channel.

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Summary

In this conversation, Ollie and Brad Law discuss the rising measles outbreak, drawing parallels to lessons learned from COVID-19. They emphasise the importance of pandemic planning, vaccination awareness, and the need for businesses to prepare for multiple disruptions. The discussion also covers the evolving nature of work-from-home strategies and the necessity of integrating infectious disease plans into broader business continuity frameworks. A case study on universities highlights the specific challenges they face in managing outbreaks and the steps they can take to ensure preparedness.

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Takeaways

* Organisations should have infectious disease plans in place.

* Measles is highly infectious and requires proactive planning.

* Vaccination sentiment is influenced by misinformation and past experiences.

* Work from home strategies need to be tested and validated.

* Business continuity plans should encompass various potential disruptions.

* Universities must identify and isolate cases quickly during outbreaks.

* Effective communication with health authorities is crucial.

* Planning for multiple disruptions can simplify response strategies.

* Organisations should regularly review and update their pandemic plans.

* Collaboration among competitors can enhance resilience during crises.

Podcast keywords

measles outbreak, pandemic planning, COVID-19 lessons, vaccination sentiment, business continuity, infectious disease plan, work from home, university preparedness, crisis management, health protocols

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Hello 👋 get a brew on because these are the top 3 emerging risks between March 10th and 24th, 2025…

Review our report’s terminology here ↗

Our main risk this fortnight is…

1. Economic: The Deteriorating Landscape of Commercial Real Estate

Growing stress in commercial real estate debt markets outside major financial news cycles: Regional banks and smaller lenders are increasingly exposed to defaults as commercial real estate valuations adjust to higher interest rates and changing work patterns.

* Regional Bank and Market Vulnerability: Smaller banks and credit unions hold a large share of commercial real estate (CRE) debt, making them highly exposed to declining property values. Secondary and tertiary markets, with lower liquidity and less economic diversification, are under heightened stress.

* Work-From-Home and Property Valuation Declines: The shift to remote work has reduced demand for office space, particularly in older buildings, leading to rising vacancies, falling property values, and financial strain on landlords and lenders.

* Interest Rate and Loan Refinancing Pressures: Rising interest rates are making refinancing significantly more expensive, increasing the risk of defaults and foreclosures. A large volume of CRE loans is set to mature in the coming years, creating a “maturity wall” that will further strain borrowers.

* Transaction Declines and Market Uncertainty: Fewer real estate transactions make it difficult to accurately value properties, increasing uncertainty and risk for lenders, investors, and businesses reliant on CRE.

* Global and Sectoral Exposure: U.S. cities with high concentrations of older office buildings, like Houston, Dallas, and parts of California, are especially vulnerable. In Europe, the UK and Germany are seeing similar challenges with rising office vacancies. Businesses that depend on office space, such as professional services firms, may face higher rental costs, while construction and development projects could slow due to tighter financing conditions.

News information cited can be found via unbreakableventures.com

2. Technology: Data Privacy Risks in the Acquisition of Niantic's Gaming Division by Saudi Arabia

* Saudi Arabia’s PIF, via Savvy Games' Scopely, is acquiring Niantic’s gaming division for $3.5B, raising concerns over extensive user data transfers, including minors' information.

* Niantic, a Google spin-off, built success on geospatial AR tech, collecting significant location and personal data from Pokémon Go users, including age verification for COPPA compliance.

* Transferring this data to Saudi Arabia poses risks due to regulatory differences between GDPR, COPPA, and Saudi’s new PDPL, affecting legal grounds, user rights, and cross-border transfers.

* Business leaders must ensure due diligence in global acquisitions, especially in regions with distinct data laws, to mitigate legal, reputational, and operational risks.

3. Technology: Undocumented Bluetooth Commands in ESP32 Chips: Implications for Device Security

* Researchers discovered 29 undocumented commands in the ESP32 Bluetooth chip, enabling memory manipulation, MAC address spoofing, and packet injection.

* These commands could allow attackers to impersonate trusted devices, steal sensitive data, and compromise network security.

* Over a billion devices use the ESP32 chip, making the potential attack surface vast, including IoT, medical, and industrial systems.

* Espressif, the chip’s manufacturer, claims these commands were for internal debugging but has promised a software update to remove them.

* Businesses should assess risks, apply firmware updates, and strengthen security with encryption and network segmentation.

* The discovery underscores the persistent security challenges in widely used hardware and the need for continuous cybersecurity vigilance.

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Need support?

At Fixinc, we are passionate about helping people get through disasters. That’s why our team of Advisors bring you this resource free of charge. If you need help understanding these threats and building a plan against them, the same Advisors are here to help over a 30-minute online call. Once complete, if you like what was provided, you can choose to provide a donation or subscribe to Unreasonable Ventures to support this channel.

Help us help people just like you. Share this post today and spread the support 🤝

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unbreakableventures.com

Hello 👋 get a brew on because these are the top 3 emerging risks between February 24th, and March 10th, 2025…

* Economic | At the crossroads of global commerce and geopolitical tension, a new narrative of international trade anxiety unfolds before us. The US administration has cast a wide net of tariffs across products from Mexico, Canada, and China, an action that reverberates through all sectors with ripples touching distant shores like Japan, Korea, and Australia. We are witnessing the swift retaliation already choreographed by Canada and Mexico, with China joining this economic dance through targeted commodity tariffs and strategic export controls on critical minerals. The situation invites businesses into a moment of deep introspection about their place in this shifting landscape; are you directly exposed through existing trade flows, or indirectly vulnerable through the threads of your supply chain? In response, organisations are charting courses both immediate and long-term: exploring technical solutions like the 'first sale' rule and unbundling pricing components, navigating special customs programs as mid-term havens, and contemplating fundamental questions about where and how they source their goods. New Zealand's move toward digital services taxes, for example further complicates this tableau, revealing how even nations at geographical remove are crafting responses to capture value from multinationals operating virtually within their borders. This moment calls for not just tactical adjustments but a philosophical reimagining of how businesses position themselves in an increasingly fragmented global marketplace. This week, we are pleased to share a longer form podcast with a discussion between EY's Matt Andrew and the New Zealand Trade & Enterprise. We dive into this developing situation as this week's main risk below. Source

* Geopolitical | In the unfolding tensions between Taiwan and China, a new chapter has emerged that speaks volumes about the delicate geopolitical balance in the region. Taiwan has detained a Chinese-linked cargo vessel, suspecting its involvement in damaging two crucial undersea internet cables near the Taiwanese islands of Matsu early 2025. The detention of the vessel - a gravel ship registered in Sierra Leone but with significant Chinese connections - represents more than just a technical incident, it embodies the deeper narrative of Taiwan's ongoing struggle to maintain its sovereignty in the shadow of Beijing's influence. Authorities took decisive action after reviewing surveillance footage that placed the vessel near both cable ruptures on February 2nd and February 8th, incidents that severely disrupted communications for the 14,000 residents of Matsu and required weeks of repair work by technicians. This maritime confrontation reflects the broader tensions in the Taiwan Strait, where infrastructure vulnerability intersects with questions of national security, and where even something as seemingly mundane as a gravel ship can become entangled in the complex web of cross-strait relations.

Businesses should consider the risk of escalating cyber and physical infrastructure disruptions due to increased geopolitical tensions, potentially leading to communication blackouts and supply chain interruptions. This could force businesses to invest in redundant systems and alternative communication pathways, while also facing increased regulatory scrutiny and potential trade restrictions. Source

* Economic | Findings from multiple sources suggest that the five major GenAI labs that produce our most popular Large Language Models (like ChatGPT) are not profitable and that the costs to run these companies is no longer sustainable. ChatGPT's operational costs in 2024 was $9 billion with a reported loss of $5 billion. Similarly, the fees these LLMs charge for API access, token usage, or "pro" subscriptions are not providing enough capital for any of the labs to begin to become profitable. Key players like Microsoft who are heavy investors in OpenAI (with a reported $13-14 billion invested up to 2023) appear to be recalibrating its AI strategy amid concerns about OpenAI's growing compute demands and uncertain profitability, evidenced by a significant 14% reduction in planned data centre capacity and paused expansion projects, possibly signalling diminished confidence in generative AI's immediate growth potential and financial sustainability.Businesses with technical AI frameworks embedded deep in their operational infrastructure are most at risk. As the AI buzz continues to be pushed by those most heavily invested in the innovation, organisations may be left vulnerable to failing labs and systems that rely on solid APIs. In other words, now is the time to understand a fallback if connections to specific LLMs fail.

Our thoughts

At Unbreakable Ventures, we try to avoid political opinions as they rarely add value to the risk landscape. That said, geopolitical and economic policy invariably impact businesses. US President Donald Trump's recent tariffs have disrupted China, Canada, and Mexico, with unclear global consequences. But it is now obvious more countries are seeing the impact and opportunities of these tariffs.

In February, our team joined a discussion on the tariffs' wider implications for New Zealand businesses with EY's Global Transformation Lead and Head of Tax Policy from Hong Kong, Matt Andrew. While focused on New Zealand SMEs, the insights apply universally. Matt emphasised that all businesses face risk from these tariffs, not just those in the targeted countries. Understanding your product's component origins and navigating vague frameworks for determining non-Chinese, Mexican, or Canadian manufacture is crucial. Listen to our feature length podcast for Matt's fascinating, well-researched perspective on the situation and EY's preparation recommendations above.

Meanwhile, Taiwan has apprehended a Chinese vessel in another subsea cable incident, coinciding with Meta's announcement of "Project Waterworth", a 50,000km subsea cable connecting the US, India, Brazil, South Africa, and other key regions. While increased cable numbers naturally raise damage risks, this specific Chinese-Taiwanese incident carries significant geopolitical weight. We're monitoring this closely to check for any escalations. But as tech juggernauts like Meta continue to increase the subsea infrastructure (and even low orbit solutions), we must strongly consider a mitigation option.

Finally, OpenAI spent at least $2.25 to make $1 in 2024, a ratio reflecting the broader GenAI landscape and suggesting an overvalued, overhyped market ripe for correction. If this occurs, many businesses will feel profound impacts. While GenAI will persist, (likely becoming an enterprise commodity controlled by top players like Google and Microsoft) inexpensive API access may disappear within two years. We suggest evaluating how deeply AI is embedded in your operations and organisational fabric. This is an investigation we are looking forward to sharing a deeper insight on soon.

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POTUS doesn't like your foreign parts either.

Category: Economic

Review our report’s terminology here ↗

In summary: We are witnessing a fascinating evolution of how national identity is assigned to products crossing borders. For businesses embracing the global marketplace, the traditional comfort of a "Home made" label now faces a deeper scrutiny, one that peers into the very DNA of their products. The U.S. administration, with its heightened awareness of supply chain geopolitics, now looks beyond surface-level appearances to examine whether a product has undergone sufficient "substantial transformation" on home soil to truly claim it's unique identity against the origin of its component parts. This philosophical question of transformation echoes ancient paradoxes: when does a ship repaired plank by plank become an entirely new vessel? Similarly, at what threshold (perhaps 40% or 50% based on existing Free Trade Agreements) does a product with Chinese, Canadian, or Mexican components shed its origin story and become authentically unique to the supplier's country of origin?

The ripple effects of this examination extend through the invisible threads of global supply chains. A company might orchestrate a complex choreography of materials moving from China to Thailand to Australia before reaching American shores, yet find themselves unable to escape the gravitational pull of heavier tariffs. This scenario invites us to reflect on deeper questions about authenticity and identity in a world where few things are truly made in isolation. The physical journey of components (raw materials becoming parts, parts becoming products) mirrors our own transformative experiences, where we constantly integrate external influences while maintaining our core identity. For businesses navigating this landscape, the challenge becomes not just logistical but existential: understanding where their products truly come from and what substantial transformation truly means in both practical and philosophical terms. Where the impacts of tariffs are yet to be realised is outside of China, Mexico, and Canada. Soon, the world will see how the ripple effect of these tariffs will impact us all.

Sources:

* Measles Outbreak– Feb. 21, 2025 | Texas Health and Human Services

* Measles Sicken Nearly 100 in Texas and New Mexico | Wall Street Journal

* Record-breaking measles outbreak plagues western Texas as cases spread to New Mexico | NY Post

* The Guardian | Texas measles outbreak grows to 90 cases, worst level in 30 years

You should be concerned if…

* Exporters with manufacturing, production, or processing in the United States and with heavy imports of inputs. These businesses may be significantly impacted if they are importing parts or raw materials from Mexico, China, or Canada. Such businesses should conduct an impact assessment and consider managing their supply chains and transfer pricing.

* Exporters who manufacture or source goods in China, Canada, or Mexico, and then sell to the U.S. These businesses should assess the financial risks and potential costs associated with tariffs. They should also evaluate their pricing strategies and supply chain management.

Exporters who export to the U.S. from the local market, excluding China, will likely experience a lower impact.

These items are generic assumptions. We recommend considering your own unique risk landscape against your critical dependencies. If you don’t know what they are, get in touch.

Disruption Risk

See all risk types here ↗

Supplier / 3rd Party Negligence

* Delays in receiving essential materials or services.

* Breach of contract or financial losses due to negligence.

Resignation of Staff Members

* Gaps in the workforce may lead to decreased efficiency.

* Financial burden of finding and training replacements.

* Inability to access buildings or systems, causing downtime.

Theft, Fraud, or Malice

* Direct theft of money, assets, or intellectual property.

* Loss of trust from customers and partners if fraud occurs.

* Loss of critical assets may halt or delay business functions.

Preventative actions

Matt Andrew recommends several preventative actions to mitigate tariffs and their potential impact on businesses. These actions include:

Assessing the current situation

* Determine if the business has a significant footprint in or geopolitical risk connected to countries subject to tariffs

* Also determine if the business has a risk because it buys raw materials, parts, or manufactures in these jurisdictions, and then sells into the US.•

Short-term strategies

* For businesses with connections to countries that have tariffs imposed

* First sale rule Consider using the U.S. first sale rule for export planning to potentially lower landed costs

* Unbundling Separate costs like royalty, service, and warranty from the product's landed cost to reduce the overall tariff base

* Customs effective transfer pricing Adjust transfer prices to reduce the landed cost of goods

Medium-term strategies

* Special supply chain and customs programs Utilise programs like duty drawback, bonded warehouses, or foreign trade zones to defer or potentially reduce duties

Longer-term strategies

* Cost reduction Implement cost reduction strategies throughout the supply chain

* Alternative sourcing and manufacturing Consider diversifying sourcing and manufacturing locations to reduce reliance on countries subject to tariffs

Pricing Strategies

* Dissect pricing to identify cost reduction opportunities

* Also consider using duty drawback schemes, bonded zones, and specific pricing strategies to manage risks and maintain competitiveness.•

Supply chain adjustments

* Businesses should evaluate and potentially modify their supply chains to minimise the impact of tariffs

* This could involve bringing raw material parts and components back to New Zealand for substantial transformation to reduce the risk.

Warehousing and inventory

* Re-evaluate warehousing strategies

* Consider moving from "stock to hold" to "just in time" delivery models, potentially using warehouses outside the U.S. but close by, such as in Puerto Rico or Panama. Bonded warehouses can also be used to delay the cash flow impact of tariffs.

Andrew also suggests businesses stay informed about changes to trade policies by monitoring resources such as the White House website for executive orders and fact sheets. Available expertise and resources can help develop these plans, including government agency resources, and experts in transfer pricing, supply chain, tax planning, and tariffs/country of origin.

Need support?

At Fixinc, we are passionate about helping people get through disasters. That’s why our team of Advisors bring you this resource free of charge. If you need help understanding these threats and building a plan against them, the same Advisors are here to help over a 30-minute online call. Once complete, if you like what was provided, you can choose to provide a donation or subscribe to Unreasonable Ventures to support this channel.

Help us help people just like you. Share this post today and spread the support 🤝

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unbreakableventures.com