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The prediction market meta is piping hot and everyone wants a piece of the pie.

In this episode of Unchained, 10x Research founder Markus breaks down what the competition boils down to. Plus, will other platforms follow Polymarket's lead and launch a token?

He also walks through a “near certain” trade nestled in Polymarket and shares 10 strategies that can be used to trade prediction markets without an opinion. 

One key nugget: “It's the wisdom within the crowd.”

Guest:

Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research

Previous appearance on Unchained:

How to Invest in This Bitcoin Downtrend: Bits + Bips

Links

Unchained:

Paradigm Claims Polymarket Trading Figures Are Double Counted

Polymarket Opens US App to Waitlisted Users

Intercontinental Exchange to Invest $2 Billion in Polymarket

Crypto.com and Kalshi Lead Prediction Market Coalition Setup

Kalshi Hits $11B Valuation After $1B Raise: Report

Timestamps:

🚀 00:00 Introduction 

💡 3:07 Why Markus says prediction market adoption is still in its infancy

👀 6:23 Are speculators abandoning bitcoin for prediction markets?

🧏 8:10 How trading prediction markets differ from crypto markets

⚖️ 11:48 How Polymarket and Kalshi compare in strengths and weaknesses

⚡️ 15:12 Why Markus thinks Polymarket and Kalshi are likely to remain the dominant players 

📝 19:15 What traders should consider when choosing a prediction market platform 

💥 23:05 How the POLY Airdrop could give Polymarket an edge

⁉️ 26:39 Will other prediction markets launch a token?

💡 33:19 How risks in trading prediction markets differ from crypto markets

🧠 36:31 Markus walks through a “near certain” Bitcoin trade paying 63% annualized

🤯 39:58 Strategies to trade prediction markets without having an opinion

❕️ 51:48 Why Markus avoids “moon shot” trades

⚠️ 54:11 How to trade by finding “wisdom within the crowd”

🤺 1:00:17 How prediction markets enable hedging against real world outcomes

📃 1:02:34 Final thoughts on how traders should approach prediction markets

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Thank you to our sponsor, MultiChain Advisors!The beef between Solana dapps Jupiter and Kamino has taken a new dimension as Kamino has accused Jupiter of lying about contagion risks.

In this episode of Uneasy Money, hosts Kain Warwick, Luca Netz and Taylor Monahan dive into whether Jupiter misled users and raise questions about Kamino's response.

Plus, after Tarun Chitra’s paper on Hyperliquid’s ADL, they dig deep into the exchange’s design: did they cause unnecessary liquidations on Oct. 10? 

At the same time, they break down Lighter's 0% fees model. Does it resemble Robinhood? And how smart is it actually? 

Plus, what Farcaster's big pivot means for the future of Web3 social, and what Taylor says it would take to crack it.

Hosts:

Luca Netz, CEO of Pudgy Penguins

Kain Warwick, Founder of Infinex and Synthetix

Taylor Monahan, Security at MetaMask

Links:

Unchained:

Jupiter COO Says Vault’s ‘Zero Contagion’ Claim Was Not Fully Accurate

Uneasy Money: Did Solana Dapp Kamino Break the Golden Rule of DeFi?

Uneasy Money: Hyperliquid’s Dilemma After 10/10: Protect Itself or Its Users?

Linda Xie on How Mini-Apps Are Helping Farcaster Take on Web2 Social Media

Timestamps:

🚀 00:00 Introduction

😬 1:18 Did Jupiter mislead users?

🤔 9:19 Did Kamino really block Jupiter over contagion risks?

💡 11:15 Why Kain says Solana is in its “post-DeFi summer growth” era

🧐 12:38 Should Jupiter even care about its lending business line?

👀 18:06 Whether Hyperliquid's algorithm screwed users during the Oct. 10 crash

🎯 21:29  Luca reveals why his Oct. 10 losses on Hyperliquid weren’t so bad

🫨 24:54 Why Taylor says DPRK traders got saved by Oct. 10

💥 30:38 Why Kain is optimistic a rival HL model would emerge

⁉️ 32:02 Are Lighter users the product?

🧠 33:26 Why Kain thinks Lighter's model is genius

⚖️ 39:10 Whether Lighter resembles Robinhood

💁‍♂️ 44:47 Farcaster’s pivot: Is Web3 social DOA? 

💡 50:53 What drives VC investment in crypto and why decentralization is not enough

💥 56:46 Kudos to Dan Romero for not launching a token, and whether more founders would be better off abstaining

👀 1:04:46 Whether having too much money is bearish for projects

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Sponsor: Uniswap
Citadel has sparked uproar with a letter calling on the SEC to regulate DeFi protocols as exchanges. But the company's requests may not be totally unreasonable.

In this episode of DEX in the City, hosts Jessi Brooks, Katherine Kirkpatrick Bos, and Vy Le dig into Citadel's controversial letter and how it is a reminder that “crypto is a bubble.”

They also discuss how the CFTC and SEC are in a “race to the top,” plus Jessi explains how AI agents can exploit smart contracts they haven’t been trained on for just $1 apiece.

Plus, Vy calls on the crypto community to support Samourai developers.

Hosts:

Jessi Brooks, General Counsel at Ribbit Capital

Katherine Kirkpatrick Bos, General Counsel at StarkWare

TuongVy Le, General Counsel at Veda

Unchained:

Kraken Valued at $20 Billion After $200 Million Raise From Citadel Securities

CFTC Approves Spot Crypto Trading on U.S. Exchanges

CFTC’s New Pilot Allows BTC, ETH and USDC as Derivatives Collateral

Samourai Wallet Founders Could Serve 5 Years for $237 Million Laundering

Samourai pardon petition 

Timestamps:

🚀 00:00 Introduction 

💡 3:05 What Citadel's SEC letter on tokenized securities and DeFi says about how TradFi views crypto

👀 6:50 Why Vy says Citadel's suggestions are not unreasonable

🤔 9:31 Is Citadel shooting itself in the foot?

❌️ 11:13 What Jessi says Citadel got wrong

📍 13:42 How crypto is a bubble (or a cult?), but Citadel’s position is more mainstream

🧠 19:39 Why the CFTC greenlighting spot crypto trading on regulated exchanges matters

💡 22:57 Katherine explains Bitnomial’s advantage

💥 26:53 Why Jessi says the CFTC and SEC are in a race to regulate crypto

🧏‍♀️ 31:30 Why KK loves the CFTC’s tokenized collateral pilot 

🧠 33:47 Why Anthropic's study on smart contract security is so scary for crypto

⚠️ 36:31 How AI agents could exploit 1,000 smart contracts for $1 apiece 

📝 41:42 How community members can support Samourai wallet developers

💫 44:00 Crypto good news shoutout for the week

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Welcome to The Chopping Block — where crypto insiders Haseeb Qureshi, Tom Schmidt, Tarun Chitra, and Robert Leshner chop it up about the latest in crypto. This episode starts with Farcaster’s pivot and Tarun’s claim that “Web3 is dead,” at least the A16z-style ownership economy. With Web3 social struggling, the crew digs into why spam, airdrops, and weak network effects keep sinking these apps — and why prediction markets may be crypto’s accidental social network.

We then jump to the L1 valuation fight. Haseeb recaps his debate with Santiago over whether chains are wildly overpriced or simply early, sparking a broader discussion on PE ratios, L1 “premiums,” and how many chains the world can realistically sustain.

Next up: Ken Chan’s viral “I wasted 8 years in crypto.” The team unpacks burnout, sugar-water loops, and why nihilism tends to hit founders right as the market turns. And finally, Tarun walks through his ADL research and how October 10’s cascading liquidations exposed major flaws in current systems.

Markets evolving, narratives collapsing — let’s get into it.

Show highlights

🔹 Farcaster pivots; Tarun calls A16z-style “ownership economy” Web3 (NFTs, own-your-posts) officially dead.

🔹 Web3 social stalls — Twitter clones drowned in spam, airdrop farming, and weak network effects; prediction markets emerge as the real crypto social layer.

🔹 Users’ revealed prefs — People claim to want decentralization/privacy but consistently choose convenience and incumbents.

🔹 RIP “Web3” — Term traced from Gavin Wood to A16z marketing; panel agrees it no longer reflects where crypto is actually succeeding.

🔹 L1 valuation battle — Santi’s PE-ratio critique vs Haseeb’s long-horizon “onchain finance will be huge” thesis; debate centers on how to value chains post-ICO/NFT era.

🔹 How many L1s survive? — Tarun expects activity to concentrate in a small set due to issuance, liquidity, and coordination costs; L1 “premium” still props up dino chains.

🔹 Burnout + disillusionment — Ken Chan’s “I wasted 8 years” resonates but feels mistimed amid strong fundamentals; panel contrasts sugar-water casino loops with real infra building.

🔹 ADL failures exposed — Tarun’s research shows October 10’s cascading liquidations revealed outdated ADL assumptions; better algorithms could’ve saved hundreds of millions.

⭐️Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly

⭐️Robert Leshner, CEO & Co-founder of Superstate

⭐️Tarun Chitra, Managing Partner at Robot Ventures

⭐️Tom Schmidt, General Partner at Dragonfly 

Ken Chan’s “I Wasted 8 Years of My Life in Crypto”

🔗 https://x.com/kenchangh/status/1994854381267947640 

Tarun Chitra’s Autodeleveraging: $653 million lost to a greedy heuristic?

🔗 https://x.com/kenchangh/status/1994854381267947640 

Disclosures

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The crypto sector has celebrated a lot of policy wins in 2025, but price wise, it has arguably been a year to forget.

In this episode of Unchained, Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen and Arca Portfolio Manager David Nage join host Laura Shin to discuss the disappointing crypto markets and why their outlook on 2026 is more positive.

They also explained why Vanguard's crypto pivot is a huge deal, questioned whether Bitcoin could ever be unseated by privacy coins, and discussed why they don’t see the bubble in the DAT market hurting crypto.

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Thank you to our sponsor, Figure!

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Guests:

Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise

David Nage, Portfolio Manager at Arca

Previous appearance on Unchained:

The LayerZero-Wormhole Contest Shows How to Value a Crypto Business

Unchained:

Bitcoin Resets Above $90,000, but Can Bulls Keep the Momentum?

Bits + Bips: Vanguard’s Crypto U-Turn, Tether/MSTR FUD & Picking Future Winners

Bits + Bips: Why the Markets Now Have a Bullish Setup

Franklin Templeton Rolls Out First Tokenized Fund in Hong Kong

Why Every Company Will Have a Stablecoin — and Why One L2 Isn’t Enough

Grayscale Files to List Zcash ETF

What Ethereum Will Look Like When It Implements Its New Privacy Focus

Other relevant links:

Bank of America Broadens Access to Crypto Funds

SEC's Paul Atkins touts 'tokenization’ as key to modernizing US markets

Larry Fink and Rob Goldstein on how tokenization could transform finance

My Highest-Conviction Bet in Crypto

Stablecoin payments on Stripe cost 1.5% of the transaction amount. Credit card fees are as high as 3.5%. Less than half of the cost!

Bitcoin’s “Facebook Moment” 

Timestamps:

🚀 00:00 Introduction

🤔 01:42 Is the four-year cycle dead? 

💡 3:50 Why David says Bitcoin is having its “Facebook moment”

⚡️ 11:42 Why Ryan does not believe Bitcoin OGs are disillusioned

💥 14:43 Why David thinks liquidity may be returning to the market 

❕️ 17:21 What is driving Vanguard and Bank of America's adoption of crypto

🚨 24:34 The importance of Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund's ETF transition

💡 28:30 Why BITW excludes memecoins, stablecoins and, wrapped tokens, etc.

🔮 31:15 What tokenization means for the future of finance

👀 35:56 What the future holds for digital asset treasuries

⚠️ 39:45 How unwinding of DATs could affect Bitcoin

🧏 41:11 What Stripe's 1.5% fees suggest about the future of stablecoin competition 

📈 46:43 Why David says stablecoin adoption is similar to email

🤔 48:55 Could Bitcoin be toppled as the privacy meta rises?

🔮 56:45 Ryan and David share their 2026 crypto outlook

✴️ 1:02:01 Ryan’s 2026 Bitcoin price target

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Thank you to our sponsors!

Uniswap

Mantle

Hosts Ram Ahluwalia, Austin Campbell, and Chris Perkins dig into why interest rates may not fall as quickly as markets hope, why oil demand could surprise to the upside, and how retail keeps buying every dip—even while consumer confidence hits new lows.

The trio also breaks down the growing collision between TradFi and crypto: whether banks can compete with blockchain-native distribution, how BlackRock’s staked ETH ETF filing could reshape the market, and how yields on Ethereum and Solana represent a brand-new financial primitive.

Plus, they examine Ripple’s controversial raise, Citadel’s push to regulate DeFi, and why major incumbents are now in a frantic race to choose their crypto “dance partners.”

Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida

Austin Campbell, NYU Stern professor and founder and managing partner of Zero Knowledge Consulting

Christopher Perkins, Managing Partner and President of CoinFund

Unchained: 

BlackRock Files S-1 for Staked ETH ETF

Berachain Kept Secret a $25 Million Refund Right to a Brevan Howard Fund

CoinDesk:  Citadel Challenges DeFi Framework in Letter to SEC, Sparking Industry Outrage

Bloomberg: 

Wall Street Hedged Big Crypto Bet in $500 Million Ripple Deal (XRP)

Bitcoin Options Show Traders Hunkering Down for Crypto Winter

Timestamps:

👏 0:00 Intro

📉 2:06 Whether there’s any real path to lower rates

🛢️ 5:07 Why Ram is bullish on oil demand

🤖 6:12 The biggest constraint on AI adoption

🇯🇵 7:02 Is Japan raising rates still a “nothing burger”?

🛍️ 9:57 How retail keeps buying every dip

🏦 12:21 Can crypto beat banks’ entrenched distribution?

📉 18:00 Why Ram thinks you should “sell the Bitcoin rallies”

📼 20:13 Are we reliving the 1970s?

⛓️ 24:47 How BlackRock’s staked ETH ETF filing could reshape the market

⚖️ 30:28 How staking yields will trade against Fed short rates

💼 38:59 Ripple’s controversial “raise” — and the unusual protections granted to Citadel and Fortress

🛡️ 47:52 How Citadel is fighting DeFi to defend its moat

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In this special double-feature episode of Bits + Bips, Unchained executive editor Steve Ehrlich brings listeners two of the clearest investor perspectives on where the crypto markets may be headed next.

First, Owen Lau, Managing Director at Clear Street, breaks down why crypto equities remain so tightly correlated to Bitcoin—and what might finally cause that link to break. He unpacks the growing role of stablecoin revenue, Coinbase and Circle’s evolving business models, and why a market structure bill in 2026 could reshape the sector.

Then, in the second half, Bob Diamond and David Schamis of Hyperliquid Strategies explain why they believe Hyperliquid and its HYPE token represent one of the most compelling opportunities in digital assets. They walk through the rationale for their DAT, Hyperliquid’s performance during extreme market volatility, and the broader ecosystem being built through HIP-3 and beyond.

Sponsors:

Mantle

Steve Ehrlich, Executive Editor at Unchained

Owen Lau, Managing Director at Clear Street

Bob Diamond, Founding Partner and CEO of Atlas Merchant Capital

David Schamis, Founding Partner and CIO of Atlas Merchant Capital

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction

1:23 Owen’s outlook on crypto stocks—and what really drives them today

5:19 Why Coinbase’s stock is struggling while revenue goes up

7:47 Why so many crypto companies are spending heavily to expand distribution

10:58 Whether the 10/10 crash changed how analysts evaluate public crypto companies

14:41 Will public crypto companies enter prediction markets next?

17:02 How Coinbase and Circle are positioning themselves in this emerging area

23:00 What Citadel Securities’ push for SEC regulation of DeFi means for the industry

24:55 How a market structure bill could reshape the outlook for altcoins

27:03 Would a public crypto company buy a DAT trading below its NAV?

28:59 Has the window for crypto IPOs already closed?

Part 2

 32:57 How David and Bob first got into crypto

 38:57 Why a DAT for Hyperliquid is necessary

 42:40 Why they say their stock is a major opportunity right now

 45:55 How running an altcoin DAT differs from doing one for ETH or BTC

 48:54 How the DAT deal was structured—and Paradigm’s role

 51:38 How they’re avoiding the big sell-offs typical in PIPE deals

 53:11 Why there was a gap between announcing the DAT and executing it

 55:14 Why Sonnet Therapeutics will remain operational post-transaction

 57:51 Why the 10/10 liquidation event made Bob more confident in Hyperliquid

 1:04:19 The broader Hyperliquid ecosystem—far beyond the DEX

 1:06:42 Why David says perps are far better products than options

 1:10:12 Why regulatory clarity is critical for Hyperliquid’s long-term success

 1:13:37 What HIP-3 unlocks for builders building around perps

 1:14:46 How prediction markets could integrate with perpetuals

 1:15:49 How Hyperliquid can compete with major exchanges and crypto giants

 1:21:18 Why Hyperliquid’s feed is so much faster than other chains

 1:22:28 The $1 billion shelf offering—and how they plan to accumulate more HYPE

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Michael Saylor's Strategy has not had the year it hoped for. Amid an explosion of copycats and Bitcoin price weakness, the company has seen its valuation and so-called mNAV crash.

In this special episode of Unchained, Praxos co-founder Vinny Lingham and The Benchmark Company Analyst Mark Palmer join Unchained Executive Editor Steve Ehrlich to debate Strategy's outlook.

They discuss the impact of new preferred stocks on common shareholders, the company's new cash reserve and the potential impacts of MSCI exclusion.  

They also delve into what the Bitcoin digital asset treasury ecosystem could look like in the future and whether Strategy could have employed a better acquisition model.

Thank you to our sponsors!

⁠Uniswap⁠

⁠Mantle

Steve Ehrlich, Executive Editor at Unchained

Vinny Lingham, Co-founder of Praxos Capital

Mark Palmer, Senior Equity Research Analyst at The Benchmark Company

Unchained:

Bits + Bips: Vanguard’s Crypto U-Turn, Tether/MSTR FUD & Picking Future Winners

Bits + Bips: Why the Markets Now Have a Bullish Setup

Senate Committee Shares Bipartisan Draft on Crypto Market Structure Bill

Timestamps:

🚀 00:00 Introduction 

📈 2:14 Why Mark still expects Strategy to outperform 

📉 5:28 Why Vinny says Strategy preferred stocks are “vampiric”

🤔 11:45 Is Strategy's cash reserve a little too late?

👀 17:11 Debating Strategy's preferreds v. common stock

💡 19:44 How preferreds and CLARITY Act could enable Strategy to start buying Bitcoin dips as well

🫠 24:26 What happens if MSCI delists Strategy

🧠 30:34 The implications of Strategy's recent talk of selling and lending Bitcoin

⚠️ 36:25 Why it might be too late when Strategy decides to sell

🔮 39:28 How the Bitcoin DAT ecosystem could evolve as companies differentiate

🤔 44:17 Could Strategy have employed a better Bitcoin acquisition strategy?

💫 45:30 Closing thoughts on Strategy's future

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Thank you to our Sponsor, Uniswap!

Ethereum Fusaka is live, Infinex has embarked on its token sale, Hyperliquid is bolstering its HIP-3 markets and there is drama in Solana’s DeFi land.

In this episode of Uneasy Money, hosts Kain Warwick, Luca Netz and Taylor Monahan delve into the significance and implications of the Fusaka upgrade and the controversy surrounding Infinex's token sale.

They also take a look at the promise and risks of Hyperliquid's buzzing perp futures markets on tokenized equities and Kamino's controversial response to competition from Jupiter.

In addition, they touch on Anthropic's smart contract study and the recent Yearn Finance exploit.

Hosts:

Luca Netz, CEO of Pudgy Penguins

Kain Warwick, Founder of Infinex and Synthetix

Taylor Monahan, Security at MetaMask

Unchained:

Cheaper Fees and No More Free Lunch for Layer 2s? Inside Ethereum’s Fusaka Upgrade

Ethereum’s Layer 1 Lacks a Perp DEX. Synthetix Intends to Change That

HIP-3 Records $500 Million in Daily Volume

Uneasy Money: Hyperliquid’s Dilemma After 10/10: Protect Itself or Its Users?

Uneasy Money: ICOs Are Back and Why Airdrops Are Instantly Dumped

Timestamps:

🚀 00:00 Introduction

⚡️ 01:32 How Ethereum's shipping cadence has changed

⛽️ 9:36 Will Ethereum gas fees spike again?

⚔️ 12:26 Infinex's token sale controversy

💡 12:54 Kain explains the reasoning behind Infinex's ICO model

💥 18:47 What's driving the Infinex ICO controversy

🧏 24:11 How Hyperliquid's HIP-3 upgrade is changing DeFi participation

🤔 25:58 Are Hyperliquid's tokenized equities perps asking for SEC trouble?

🤺 38:48 Kamino v. Jupiter drama

🧐 44:59 Does Solana’s commercial tilt encourage more “gloves off” competition?

👀 50:51 Will Kamino users exit en masse?

❕️51:32 Anthropic's smart contract study coincides with Yearn Finance hack

💡 54:40 How AI can help bolster crypto security

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Welcome to The Chopping Block — where Haseeb Qureshi, Tom Schmidt, Tarun Chitra, and Robert Leshner cover crypto’s biggest moments. This week we’re joined by Kevin from the Monad Foundation as we dig into the most chaotic token launch of the year. Monad goes live, CT explodes, and the tokenomics wars come roaring back — vesting, float, FDV, and why everything “just keeps going down.”

We break down whether the world actually needs another L1, how hype creates impossible expectations, and how Kevin and the Monad team are handling the spotlight — and the hate. Then we shift to security chaos: Yearn’s underflow hack, Anthropic’s AI discovering real smart contract vulnerabilities, and “post-quantum” panic sweeping Crypto Twitter. Plus: BTC volatility, MicroStrategy drama, and prediction markets suddenly going mainstream.

Show highlights

🔹 Monad’s explosive token launch — hype, backlash, and why it became CT’s main character of the week.

🔹 Kevin joins to break down the launch mechanics, the expectations, and what the team actually prepared for.

🔹 “Low float, high FDV” returns — why vesting debates reignited and why tokens keep sliding despite higher floats.

🔹 Do we really need another L1? The crew dissects infrastructure fatigue, tribalism, and what counts as real differentiation.

🔹 Why hype almost guarantees disappointment — and why early sentiment rarely predicts long-term outcomes.

🔹 Handling the hate — Kevin explains how the team reframes attention, survives the noise, and stays focused post-launch.

🔹 Yearn Sonic exploit — a simple underflow bug hits an OG DeFi protocol, reigniting security concerns.

🔹 AI finds zero-days — Anthropic’s agents discover new smart-contract vulnerabilities and spark an AI security arms race.

🔹 Quantum panic — why “post-quantum” became CT’s latest engagement meta and what it actually means for chains.

🔹 Macro shakeups — BTC volatility, MicroStrategy flirting with NAV, and equities demolishing crypto returns.

🔹 Prediction markets breakout — Polymarket’s US launch, Kalshi’s mega raise, and Robinhood bringing event contracts in-house.

🔹 Long-tail opportunity — why prediction markets may extend far beyond politics and sports to everything people care about.

Hosts:

⭐️Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly

⭐️Robert Leshner, CEO & Co-founder of Superstate

⭐️Tom Schmidt, General Partner at Dragonfly 

Guest

⭐️ Kevin McCordic, Director of Growth at Monad Foundation

⁠Disclosures⁠

Timestamps

00:00 Intro

01:21 Monad: Hype, Hate & Week-One Reality

06:08 Vesting, Float & the “Low Float, High FDV” Meta

17:27 Do We Need Another L1? 

25:08 Public Perception, Expectations & Narrative Cycles

35:54 Yearn’s yETH Exploit & Anthropic’s Exploit Agents 

44:06 MSTR at NAV & Equities Leaving Crypto Behind

48:06 Polymarket vs. Kalshi vs. Robinhood

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