Ian Collins unpacks a new megapoll suggesting that Reform UK would emerge largest, yet only a pact with the Conservatives could deliver a right-wing government. With Labour projected to slump to 86 seats, any alternative administration would require an unstable five-party left-wing coalition. Meanwhile, outrage is growing after three failed asylum seekers were convicted over a horrific Brighton beach rape attack. The case has intensified pressure on ministers over hotel accommodation, border screening and the promised deportation of foreign offenders.

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